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Shane Bieber's strong Rays splits make Toronto Blue Jays the smart first 5 innings MLB bet
By David Troy
Published July 23, 2026
A win can cure basically any frustration you have. The past few days have made me annoyed at how my baseball plays were ending up. It wasn't all bad; I split on Monday, and I won the only MLB play that I had yesterday. Tuesday's looks were not good, and I ran into some bad luck in a few other games that I put out recently. I had a nice, easy 8-0 win on the Washington Nationals yesterday, and I'm hopeful today's game will be another no-sweat contest.
The Tampa Bay Rays are among the best teams in baseball, and I think that most wouldn't have expected this to be the case. It is interesting seeing how this team has gotten it all done, considering they are not loaded with big names, and they never have one of the top payrolls. I always wonder why other teams - both big and smaller market - don't take some of the lessons from them and implement them into their own franchise.
I guess not everyone can replicate everything successfully, but whatever the Rays are doing, they replicate it seemingly year-to-year.
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Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Ian Seymour pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the second inning at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass., on July 18, 2026. (Eric Canha/Imagn Images)
Today, the Rays are sending out Ian Seymour to the hill. A lot of teams have swingmen in their rotation who bounce between the bullpen and rotation. The Rays typically use "openers" for games, but Seymour seems like he is somewhere between an opener and one they actually want stretched out. He only has seven starts for the season, and you can expect him to throw around five innings and give up three runs.
He has faced the Toronto Blue Jays in a relief role this season, going four games and allowing two earned in four innings of work. Overall, Blue Jays hitters have done well against him, batting 14-for-38.
Toronto is not one of the best teams in baseball. If anything, they are among the most disappointing teams in baseball. After giving the Los Angeles Dodgers everything they could handle last year, expectations were very high. Unfortunately, they haven't come close to those expectations and are 10 games under .500.
I highly doubt they blow up the team, but they may trade away a few pieces. The most glaring issue with the team is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is hitting .256 (which isn't bad), but has just six homers for the year. He had nine in 2020, when they played 60 games, and just 15 in 2019, his rookie season, when he played just 123 games.
Toronto Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. points to a skybox after hitting a home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the second inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 12, 2021, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
It isn't as if their pitching has been some shining star, either. They have had trouble on the mound, and that has magnified the offensive issues. Today, they bring in Shane Bieber, who is just 1-1 for the season with a 5.70 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.
Bieber used to be one of the best arms in the game, and he is still only 31 years old, so I feel like there is more than enough time for him to regain form. He has shown flashes of it as well, including his most recent outing when he went six scoreless innings, allowing three hits, two walks, and striking out six. Rays hitters are batting just .172 against Bieber this season.
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When I look at the total for this game, I want to say the over is the smarter option, but I can make a compelling case for the under.
I likely won't touch the total, but some brief notes on it: Bieber has actually thrown better at home this season, but it is just three starts, so it is a rather small sample size. He only has one game (of five) where he hasn't allowed a run. Seymour is likely to allow some runs if they let him go through the lineup twice. The Rays bullpen is better than Toronto's, so you do have to wonder a bit how long Seymour will go.
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Shane Bieber throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Rogers Centre in Toronto on July 18, 2026. (Nick Turchiaro/Imagn Images)
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For those reasons, I'm avoiding the total. Instead, I want to take the Blue Jays through five innings. I think that Toronto should get a good shot at knocking around Seymour. I also think Bieber has shown good success against the Rays hitters. Give me Toronto through five innings.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/shane-bieber-strong-rays-splits-make-toronto-blue-jays-smart-first-5-innings-mlb-bet