A new tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea will follow closely in the footsteps of Tropical Cyclone Chapala in terms of its track but not its intensity into early next week.
Tropical Cyclone 05A developed Thursday morning, local time, in the eastern Arabian Sea. The cyclone will remain on a general west-southwest path into this weekend, tracking slightly farther south but in a similar fashion to Chapala.
With the water churned up in the wake of Chapala, the new cyclone will fail to reach or rival Chapala in terms of intensity.
"At peak intensity, Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) was the equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean on [Oct. 30], making it one of the strongest cyclones on record in the Arabian Sea," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.
The strength of Tropical Cyclone 05A is still expected to reach that of a strong tropical storm, potentially even flirting with Category 1 hurricane status before reaching the island of Socotra later this weekend.
The cyclone is expected to produce 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain and wind gusts of 95-130 kph (60-80 mph) across Socotra, threatening to cause more flooding and damage in communities beginning to clean up following Chapala.
Beyond Socotra, the impacts of the cyclone will dramatically lessen for early next week as it tracks into the Gulf of Aden and encounters dry air from the Arabian Peninsula.
Since the cyclone will not be as strong as Chapala was when it began to interact with the dry air, it will move faster in the Gulf of Aden.
Regardless, AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms to accompany the cyclone as it grazes the northeastern tip of Somalia or curves into south-central mainland Yemen, site of where Chapala plowed onshore.
"There will be an isolated flooding threat, especially considering the mountainous desert terrain of the region," said Douty.