New York Jets running back Chris Ivory, top, is tripped up by Tennessee Titans safety Michael Griffin, bottom, in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 14, 2014, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
If you are conscious and have watched non-Netflix television or listened to any sports radio in the past month, you are familiar with DrafKings. So I won't say more about how NFL daily fantasy contests work on than other than that (1) they're tremendously fun and (2) in this weekly post, I'm going to focus mainly on GPP (guaranteed prize pool) games rather than 50/50 contests.
There's more DFS information and picks out there than any employed individual can possibly consume. So if you're not working or a student, check back here weekly. But unemployment is pretty low right now, fortunately, so if you have a job, here's my pitch:
I'm just a guy, standing in front of a laptop, asking people to love him. That "Notting Hill" reference goes out to my buddy Matt C., who lost movie rental privileges for life circa 2000 with that rental.
Each week I'll review the slate and try to bring you some half-decent picks, or something to fade, with some sick references from time to time. And the next week for accountability, I'll tell you how I/we fared.
The first NFL Sunday is almost here, friends! Here we go!!!
BEST PLAYS (good value or matchup)
Allen Robinson ($5,400, WR, Panthers at Jaguars): The 6-foot-3 wideout, priced well below a horde of lesser threats, became a Blake Bortles favorite in 2014 before breaking his foot. He's facing a pretty aged secondary on Sunday and could see extra looks in the red zone with tight end Julius Thomas out.
Jarvis Landry ($5,600, Dolphins at Washington): Landry became a receptions machine down the stretch last season and will face a bottom-feeding Washington secondary. Look for Ryan Tannehill to go to him early and often.
Chris Ivory ($4,100, RB, Browns at Jets): That's a pretty sexy price for a feature running back in this, the year 2015. Especially against a soft Browns rushing D. Ivory has drawn lots of praise this preseason and may see increased action in the passing game, too.
Matthew Stafford -- ($7,000, QB, Lions at Chargers): He's the 12th priced passer this week but has Top-10 toys. Don't count out Calvin Johnson among the league's best yet. Paired with Golden Tate and rookie running back Ameer Abdullah who will give Stafford a nice outlet for screens and dump-offs that should pad his stats, Stafford is as good a bet as any to eclipse the 300-yard mark.
WORST PLAYS (overpriced or bad matchup)
LeSean McCoy -- ($7,200, RB, Colts @ Bills): Obviously you'll start him on your traditional fantasy team he's got a pretty steep price tag for a guy with a nagging hamstring injury who said he's not 100%. You don't get a discount if he's only giving you 65%.
Duke Johnson -- ($3,000, RB, Browns at Jets): He's been cleared to play (concussion) and he's cheap but we still have no idea how Cleveland will split the workload with Isaiah Crowell. Against the Jets' stout front seven is not a smart time to roll the dice.
Sammy Watkins -- ($7,000, Colts at Bills): Let's just look at comparables: Would you rather have Watkins facing primarily Vontae Davis catching balls from a QB making his first start, or the dynamic, slick-dressing DeAndre Hopkins for $400 more?
Peyton Manning ($8,200, QB, Ravens at Broncos): No stats here, just a gut here that under new head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme, the team will attempt to bulldoze the Ravens with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. Manning will get his too but I'd rather invest in Ryan Tannehill or Tony Romo for nearly $1,000 less.
CRAZIEST PLAYS (uncertainty with boom or bust potential and/or plays for Bill Belichick)
Ty Montgomery -- ($3,000 piece, WR, Packers at Bears): In what will be an unpleasant and costly afternoon for Bears fans, Montgomery may see a decent click of targets in 3-WR sets. The rookie currently outranks Jeff Janis on the depth chart, so throw the dart if you want to spend big elsewhere.
Rueben Randle -- ($5,100, WR, Giants at Cowboys): The Cowboys lost their best cornerback Orlando Scandrick to an ACL injury and will face a healthy New York Giants backfield (for now) and Odell Beckham Jr., who's shown he's capable of using any of his 10 fingers, which not all Giants can say, to posterize the 'Boys. The Giants are unlikely to push Victor Cruz to play, opening the door for Randle to go boom.
Ryan Matthews -- ($3,600, RB, Eagles at Falcons): The Eagles will feature their expensive new toy DeMarco Murray but they didn't sign Mathews for pennies (3 years, $11.5 million). He'll be the change-of-pace guy to Murray and 10-or-so carries against a porous Falcons rush defense could yield a return far in excess of the investment.
Jameis Winston ($6,000, QB, Titans at Buccaneers): He's got the horses him to compete for jump balls in Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Bucs could ease Winston in with a vanilla, run-focused approach but who knows? This is basically your "F*** it, get me a beer and let's watch!" pick.
You watched that whole Notting Hill scene, didn't you!!! Good luck this week!
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