NFL Playoff Scenarios for Week 17: How Final 4 Playoff Spots Could Be Determined

Published December 23, 2025

Just like that, only four spots remain in the playoff field for the 2025 NFL season.

Eight teams punched their tickets to the playoffs in Week 16, with only two spots remaining in each conference. We could know which 14 teams are in the postseason by the end of Week 17, as four teams can potentially secure a playoff spot this weekend.

There are also seven division titles to sort out, and we still don't know who'll have the No. 1 seed in each conference.

So, let's take a look at how teams can either clinch a playoff spot, win their division or take the No. 1 seed in Week 17.

AFC

Denver Broncos (12-3)

The Broncos have already clinched a playoff spot. They can clinch the AFC West in Week 17 when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs if the following happens:

Broncos beat Chiefs and Chargers lose or tie to Texans OR
Broncos tie and Chargers lose

The Broncos can also clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed if the following happens:

Broncos win, Chargers lose, Patriots lose to Jets, Bills lose or tie against Eagles and Jaguars lose or tie against Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)

The Jaguars have already clinched a playoff spot. They can clinch the AFC South in Week 17 when they take on the Indianapolis Colts if the following happens:

Jaguars beat Colts and Texans lose or tie against Chargers OR
Jaguars tie and Texans lose

New England Patriots (12-3)

The Patriots have already clinched a playoff spot. They can clinch the AFC East in Week 17 when they take on the New York Jets if the following happens:

Patriots beat Jets and Bills lose or tie against Eagles OR
Patriots tie and Bills lose

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)

The Steelers can clinch a playoff spot and win the AFC North in Week 17 when they take on the Cleveland Browns if the following happens:

Steelers beat Browns OR
Ravens lose or tie against Broncos

Playoff probability: 91%

Houston Texans (10-5)

The Texans can clinch a playoff spot in Week 17 when they take on the Los Angeles Chargers if the following happens:

Texans win or tie against Chargers OR
Colts lose or tie against Jaguars OR
Texans clinch at least a tie in strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Colts (would need wins from Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, Buccaneers)

Playoff probability: 97%

NFC

Chicago Bears (11-4)

The Bears have already clinched a playoff spot. They can clinch the NFC North in Week 17 when they take on the San Francisco 49ers if the following happens:

Bears beat 49ers OR
Packers lose to Ravens OR
Bears tie and Packers tie

Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)

The Packers can clinch a playoff spot in Week 17 when they take on the Baltimore Ravens if the following happens:

Packers win or tie against Ravens OR
Lions lose or tie against Vikings

Playoff probability: 93%

Carolina Panthers (8-7)

The Panthers can clinch a playoff spot and win the NFC South in Week 17 when they take on the Seattle Seahawks if the following happens:

Panthers beat Seahawks and Buccaneers lose or tie against Dolphins OR
Panthers tie and Buccaneers lose

Playoff probability: 43%

Seattle Seahawks (12-3)

The Seahawks have already clinched a playoff spot. They can clinch the NFC West in Week 17 when they take on the Carolina Panthers if the following happens:

Seahawks beat Panthers, Rams lose or tie against Falcons and 49ers lose or tie against Bears OR
Seahawks tie, Rams lose and 49ers lose

The Seahawks can also clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed if the following happens:

Seahawks win, Rams lose and Bears-49ers ends in a tie

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