Herd Hierarchy Week 16: Rams Still No. 1?; Patriots 'Aren't a Super Bowl Team'

Published December 16, 2025

Can anyone beat the Rams? Are the Patriots Super Bowl contenders? How much did the Packers' injuries hurt their chances?

Those are the questions Colin Cowherd has answers to in the most recent edition of the "Herd Hierarchy." Remember, Cowherd isn't ranking teams based on what they've done lately or their record. Rather, it's an encapsulation of where each team in the NFL stands, holistically, taking into consideration which opponents each team has beaten, how healthy they are and their ceiling for the rest of the year.

So, let's take a look at Cowherd's latest top 10 heading into Week 16 of the NFL season.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

"Seven of their last nine wins have come in one-score games. They're 3-5 when allowing 21-plus points … Their defense, it's excellent. Their roster, it's excellent. But I don't trust Jalen Hurts or Nick Sirianni in big spots. … This offense feels like it's been broken since Week 1."

9. Jacksonville Jaguars

"You can't run on them. And Liam Coen has done wonders for Trevor Lawrence's confidence, he's running more. They have the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 2 scoring defense on their five-game winning streak. Do I trust them in a big spot? No."

8. Buffalo Bills

"They got totally worked for the first half of that game after losing to New England. Everybody thinks, 'Wow, they scored on five straight touchdown drives.' Ok. They do run the ball, but are so overly dependent on Superman at quarterback. Yes, Josh Allen has been very good in December games, I'll give you that. And in the last couple of weeks, they have almost 600 total yards — Josh Allen does."

Josh Allen has led the Bills to a combined 28-10 record in December and January since his arrival in 2018. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

7. San Francisco 49ers

"Elite coaching. Maybe the best coaching staff this year in the league. [Robert] Saleh, on defense, doing it with smoke and mirrors; and Kyle Shanahan, four wins in a row, all by 10-plus points. Brock Purdy, finally this week, I think looked totally healthy. Had a lot of juice, a lot of energy. … This is a very dangerous team."

6. Seattle Seahawks

"Seattle's got a big-boy defense. Sam Darnold, yes he leads the NFL in giveaways, but he also leads in yards per attempt. It is a big-play offense that can also play with a lead. They can play conservatively and win because they can run the ball. Well-coached. Play defense. Second-best odds right now to win the Super Bowl. Twenty-three straight games not allowing somebody 100 yards rushing. … I think they're going to be a really tough out."

5. New England Patriots

"They're a young team, missing their left tackle and left guard. Their issue is, they're not very good in the red zone on either side of the ball, and that's why I don't think they're a Super Bowl team. They're not good defensively."

4. Chicago Bears

"Tell me what they don't do? They play in bad weather, very well. They run the ball. They're dynamic. Great offensive coach. Excellent O-line. Take the ball away. What don't they do? They're built for January. … 8-2 in their last 10 games. No. 1 rush offense since Week 5. No. 2 in big plays. They feel like a team that could end up in the conference championship."

The Bears' last NFC Championship Game appearance was in 2010. Will Caleb Williams propel Chicago back to the conference title this season? (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

3. Houston Texans

"I think the Texans defense is the best unit in pro football. They're 8-0 if they can just score 20 points. No. 1 scoring defense. … I've always liked C.J. Stroud. I don't get the criticism. If you give him 2.5 seconds, he's outstanding. I really like Houston. I think they're going to make the AFC Championship."

2. Denver Broncos

"I wish [quarterback Bo Nix] was a little more consistent, but the guy is an unbelievable athlete. He doesn't take sacks, he's a right-handed Steve Young. … We got to stop doubting him. Opposing teams, by the way, are 3-10 after facing Denver. So, they beat you and they beat you up."

1. Los Angeles Rams

"Most complete roster in the NFL … Outgained their opponents — in the last month — by over 500 yards. Blake Corum has now popped at running back so they have a 1-2 punch. They have four tight ends who are capable."

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