Dorm Report: Breaking down the CFP rankings

Published February 05, 2015

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) - The latest College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night after the most recent slate of games, with an interesting twist.

TCU leapfrogged No. 5 Alabama in the playoff rankings to take the fourth spot, which would mean if the postseason began today, the Horned Frogs would be playing in the first-ever FBS playoff system and vying for a national title. Alabama, the fourth-ranked team in the AP Top 25 poll, would not.

Mississippi State, the nation's top-ranked team, naturally remained first in the rankings, while Oregon (No. 2) and Florida State (No. 3) round out the top spots.

Alabama is the first team out of the playoff rankings at No. 5, while 8-1 Arizona State (ranked seventh in the AP poll) is the No. 6 team, two spots outside the playoffs.

The decision to move TCU up into the fourth position was one that was scrutinized by many, including Baylor supporters who argued the fact that the Bears (seventh in the CFP rankings) defeated the Horned Frogs (61-58) earlier this season. Playoff committee chairman Jeff Long explained the decision to move TCU into the top four following the release of the latest rankings, saying TCU's two Top 25 wins versus Baylor's one, and TCU's loss to a Top 10 team both worked in the Horned Frogs' favor.

"We spent a lot of time discussing the merits of the top teams this week," Long said. "We clearly look at the win-loss record, but we also look beyond the record to other factors indicating overall strength. Our thinking is consistent. Strength of schedule and body of work are important. Week in and week out, we will begin with a fresh look at all the teams and a clean sheet of paper, which provides us with new perspective."

The Horned Frogs have been a bit of a surprise this season out of the Big 12 Conference, having dominated most competition, including a 41-20 beatdown of previously No. 9-ranked Kansas State last weekend. Quarterback Trevone Boykin has launched himself into the discussion for the Heisman Trophy come season's end. TCU's remaining three games in the Big 12 are pretty light, with Kansas, Texas and Iowa State still left.

Baylor's fans weren't the only ones griping against the latest rankings. Despite holding the No. 4 ranking in the AP poll, Alabama stayed pat at the fifth spot in the playoff release. Coming off a 20-13 win over LSU, Tide fans may have justified concerns.

But here's the thing: At this point in the season, the playoff rankings don't mean squat.

Most teams have three games remaining on the regular season schedule, including the Crimson Tide, who have two immensely important contests against SEC foes left that will catapult them into the rankings should they come away victorious.

Perhaps the biggest game of the college football season is taking place this weekend in Tuscaloosa between the Tide and top-ranked Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are one of just three remaining unbeaten teams in the country, and a win for Alabama would be the ultimate in terms of a resume boost. So complaints against the latest College Football Playoff rankings are completely unfounded at the moment with a quarter of the team's schedule still left to be played.

Undefeated Florida State fell back one spot behind Oregon in the latest ranking release, despite the better record and higher AP Top 25 ranking, for the same reason TCU moved into the top four - the Ducks have a stronger resume. Oregon (9-1) has defeated three Top 25 teams this season in Michigan State, UCLA and Utah, while the Seminoles have just two Top 25 wins to their credit (Notre Dame and Clemson).

Long said the committee placed significant value on the quality of wins for the Ducks, which allowed them to move past Florida State.

But Oregon has a potential monster of a challenge waiting when the Ducks make it to the Pac-12 Conference championship game. If the Sun Devils can win out (against Oregon State, Washington State and Arizona), they'll take on Oregon in the league's title game with a possible shot at the playoffs on the line.

This season, Arizona State has lost just one game to UCLA (a 62-27 blowout), but has notable wins over USC, Stanford, Utah and Notre Dame. Non-conference scheduling has already been a reason noted for keeping teams either up or down in the playoff rankings, and both Arizona State and Baylor haven't played particularly difficult non-conference slates.

Auburn had been a member of the top four in the playoff rankings in the first few releases, but fell back to No. 9 in the playoff standings and in the AP poll after a loss to Texas A&M last weekend. The Tigers' playoff hopes have almost certainly been dashed with two losses on the season, but they can make up some ground with outside help plus wins over Georgia and Alabama in the final few weeks.

The team controlling its own destiny moving forward is unquestionably Alabama. It's pointless for Tide fans to be upset about the current playoff rankings with two of the biggest games of the season standing in the way of the postseason. With a win over Mississippi State this weekend, the next CFP rankings will look considerably different.

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