'Hannity' panel on fallout from New Hampshire
Can Trump, Sanders build on victories or will their rivals change the narrative?
This is a rush transcript from "Hannity," February 10, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
SEAN HANNITY, HOST: This is a Fox News alert. Welcome to "Hannity." The voters of New Hampshire have now spoken and Fox News is projecting that Donald Trump has scored a decisive win in the Republican primary with 35 percent of the vote. Ohio governor John Kasich has taken second place with 16 percent. And at this hour, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, they're in a tight race fighting for third place.
Now on the Democratic side, Vermont senator, self-proclaimed socialist, Bernie Sanders, defeated Hillary Clinton decisively. Fox News projecting that Senator Sanders will win by more than 20 percent.
Earlier tonight, Donald Trump celebrated his huge victory in the Republican primary with a rousing speech. Watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, R-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We are going to make America great again.
I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created. Remember that. By the way, we're going to knock the hell out of ISIS. We're going to knock the hell out of them.
We are going to start winning again. And we are going to win so much, you are going to be so happy. We are going to make America so great again, maybe greater than ever before. I love you all. Thank you, New Hampshire. Thank you. Thank you, New Hampshire. Thank you. Thank you. We are going now to South Carolina. We're going to win in South Carolina. I love you all.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: And joining us now live from downtown Manchester, New Hampshire, "Campaign Carl" Cameron. Carl, what a night for Trump.
CARL CAMERON, FOX NEWS COMMENTATOR: What a night, indeed. And he's sort of rewritten the playbook for New Hampshire. He has definitely put on a scare into the Republican establishment with tonight's victory. Donald Trump is winning. Now he goes to South Carolina. It's really not all that much of a surprise. It is closing time here at the Thirsty Moose. They're shutting things down on L Street in Manchester.
And for three candidates tonight, closing time is a real threat. We're talking about Chris Christie, who has said that he's going to not go to South Carolina but will go back to New Jersey to assess things after a disappointing showing tonight. You know, there is a very real possibility that his position in the polls now will disqualify him for the upcoming Saturday debate in South Carolina, which was part of the fate that led to Rand Paul dropping out of the race when he wasn't going to be in the primetime debate just a week and a half ago after not doing well in Iowa.
For Ben Carson, he left Manchester, New Hampshire, and left New Hampshire even before the polls closed tonight to go to South Carolina. And as he told us earlier this week, he's laying off staff and after the New Hampshire primary, he plans to lay off another 20 or so. It will bring the staff cuts to about 50, leaving him about 90 or so staffers across the country. But nowhere near what he had had just a couple of weeks ago.
And then there's Carly Fiorina. She says she's going to continue to stay in the race, but she's been having a hard time getting traction. And there are those who begin to think that some of these candidates really have to start thinking about perhaps cutting the string and getting out of the race in order to let the rest of the electorate coalesce around any kind of candidate who could challenge Trump. It is a great night for the real estate developer winning the first of the nation primary by a decisive margin. Propels him into South Carolina and a win in South Carolina could propel him all the way to the nomination. There have been those saying, even some of his rivals, that if he wins in New Hampshire and wins in South Carolina, he may be unstoppable, Shep. Excuse me -- Sean.
HANNITY: Shep. Is it late? You better get to last call, Carl, before they close down the bar.
CAMERON: I went to Dixville Notch -- I drove to Dixville Notch last night. We were up all night long. It's been 36 hours plus that we've been running on the campaign trail.
HANNITY: Totally understand. I think right over your shoulder there's a bar with a beer and it has your name on it and you deserve it. Thanks so much, "Campaign Carl" Cameron. We appreciate it.
Joining us now with reaction from the weekly standard, Fox News contributor Steven Hayes, Fox News contributor Joe Trippi, and Fox News legal analyst Peter Johnson, Jr.
Peter, I'll start with you.
Another establishment defeat that cannot be denied here. And more importantly, if I would have said to any of you three nine months ago that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders would have this decisive victory on this night in New Hampshire, I think you all would have thought that I'm crazy. Now you probably think that anyway. But you would have thought I was really crazy.
Peter.
PETER JOHNSON, JR., FOX NEWS LEGAL ANALYST: I wouldn't have been calling you Sean. No, that wouldn't have been anything that we would have thought of, you know, nine months ago or six months ago or three months ago or even two months ago. And when you're called an establishment candidate, it's become a death nail. And so time and time again these four or five folks, they're the establishment candidates, they're in the establishment lane. Well the establishment lane is not going anywhere at this point and at this point, Donald Trump, if it keeps up, is on his way to becoming the Republican presidential nominee. There's no question at all.
HANNITY: I've got to be honest, I tend to agree with you. It's going to be very hard to stop him and I watched a lot of the analysis tonight and in my opinion, it couldn't have been more off and more wrong by so many people and I think they have predicted all along his fall and it never came.
Steven Hayes, another -- a big night also tonight. Trump had the biggest night. Big night for Bernie Sanders. Big night for John Kasich. And I would argue that Ted Cruz spending as little money as he did had a pretty good night for him as well and he gets out of there heading into what he believes is friendly territory.
STEVEN HAYES, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Yeah, Ted Cruz spent little money and not much time either. I think just 27 days here. This clearly was not a point of emphasis for Ted Cruz. He did particularly well with very conservative voters, as we would expect. And I think he sets himself up very nicely for the move into South Carolina and then onto Nevada and then beyond to the March 1st SEC primary. He's in a pretty good position.
I'm blown away by the Bernie Sanders win tonight. The margin of victory 21 points, give or take, right now. A year ago today, Hillary Clinton had a 44 point advantage on Bernie Sanders here in New Hampshire. Now Bernie Sanders -- it looks like he's going to win by 21 points. That is a 66 point net swing. It is absolutely stunning.
And the same goes for Donald Trump. He doubled up John Kasich tonight, the second place finisher. It is absolutely extraordinary. And you're right. This is a political earthquake. It is a message to Washington the way things have been going and you would think that members of Congress better be sitting up pretty straight and paying attention today.
HANNITY: You know, we've been trying to tell them for years and they have been ineffective. They have been, frankly, lacking in backbone and strength. And they have been lost. And, in the basis, telling them very strongly on both sides of the aisle. Now, when you look at the numbers here, Joe Trippi, Hillary lost every single demographic group except 65- plus and those making over $200,000 a year. How does she recover from this? Is South Carolina really a firewall for her?
JOE TRIPPI, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: I don't think South Carolina is as much a firewall as a place where she's particularly strong. And look, I predicted back in July that Trump was going to be around a lot longer than all the frontrunners back then and thought he would win New Hampshire. Not this big. I thought all along that Sanders would win New Hampshire. But, again, not this big. It was two big wins for both of them.
The problem is going forward, this had to be the modeled finish that Donald Trump couldn't have written in a script for what he wanted to see happen with -- none of the governors really emerging and Cruz coming in third and Kasich, the one governor that did show up, not having a whole lot of places to go real quick.
And then you've got Hillary Clinton who, yes, suffered a big defeat tonight to Bernie Sanders. But again as, you know -- forward -- as you move out of New Hampshire, the Democratic Party becomes much more diverse and you start getting to more of her strengths with African-Americans, Latinos and other Democrats. The liberal wing of the party isn't as big a part of the party down in the south, for instance, and places like South Carolina.
The question now is can Bernie Sanders take this victory and use the energy that comes from it to expand into those groups because so far he hasn't been able to do it. If he can, then he becomes a real threat to Hillary Clinton. If he cannot, we'll know soon enough in South Carolina and Nevada --
HANNITY: But certainly the money after tonight --
TRIPPI: (inaudible).
HANNITY: -- is going to be pouring in, Joe. But the money's going to be pouring in --
TRIPPI: Oh, no yeah he's -- He already --
HANNITY: Momentum is on his side.
TRIPPI: He was already -- Yeah. That's the whole point. Does that money, does that momentum, does that energy break -- let him expand out into areas he has not been able to get to? There are a lot of moderate and conservative white Democrats that I think are still wondering what the whole democratic socialist thing means. Can he explain that? Or can the energy just sort of blast through that? That's some of the things he's going to have to work on now. If he can't then Hillary Clinton, yeah, suffered a defeat. She'll be fighting back. And I think right now, South Carolina is still going to be a place where she's going to win because of her strengths. It's not a firewall. It's because of who she is and who is supporting her there.
HANNITY: Peter, let's go to John Kasich. John Kasich put a stake in New Hampshire. He wanted to do well in that state. He was the one person that broke through. Can he carry that momentum into, for example, South Carolina? And what about Marco Rubio? I mean Marco Rubio, I mean, you talk about a moment in a debate that could have changed the trajectory of a race, certainly, he lost eight points in the poll numbers since that debate that took place last week.
JOHNSON: Yeah. You know, moments won and moments lost. There was a point that Marco Rubio was trailing just by a few points and at least some polls Donald nationally -- Donald Trump still sees him as a problem going forward. Ted Cruz is a problem going forward. There's this muddled group of four or five folks that still pose an issue. The problem is they're going to cut each other's throats and they're not going to consolidate and unify behind one candidate.
And so, meanwhile, there will be another debate on the 13th in which Donald Trump will probably emerge victorious and the other candidates will spend an enormous amount of time and money trying to kill each other, probably with very little effect.
HANNITY: What about the demographics --
JOHNSON: Well, the demographics are closer in South Carolina to Iowa. It's a better state for Ted Cruz in that regard. But what you're talking about with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and what Joe Trippi knows best in terms of consultants, is the notion of being a frontrunner. Frontrunner status means a heck of a lot. And the sins of Democratic socialism seem to be lost in translation. And Hillary Clinton's invincibility and invulnerability seems to be cracking day by day.
HANNITY: Steven Hayes, let me ask you the establishment insurgency question. Because you had Ted Cruz in Iowa, you have Donald Trump by a huge margin now in New Hampshire, you have mixed results for the governors in both contests. Is there a point where the establishment is going to have to accept that one of the two people they don't like, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, is going to be the nominee?
HAYES: Yeah, I don't think we're at that point yet, Sean. I mean, we're talking about less than 2 percent of the delegates overall assigned. I think there's a long race to go, as Peter just, I think, said correctly. You've got this model going into South Carolina. Certainly, that's advantageous right now for Donald Trump because you have these establishment, or let's just say, non anti-establishment candidate that are likely to be beating each other up. One of the things I'm most interested in seeing as we head into this debate on Saturday night is whether there's a change in strategy for many of these candidates. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump have gone after each other in a pretty tough way over the past several weeks. Jeb Bush has taken on Donald Trump, pretty directly confronted him in his stump speeches and on the debate stage. Marco Rubio - -
(CROSSTALK)
HAYES: What's that?
HANNITY: You know, if you look at the money, Cruz spent, according to the numbers that I saw, anywhere between 700 and $800,000 in the airwaves. And Jeb Bush's campaign spent $35 million.
HAYES: Yeah. Incredible.
HANNITY: An incredible distinction there. Can Jeb Bush say that this is a breakout for him tonight?
HAYES: You know, I don't think he can. I think that's a really tough sell. If you look at the delegate count, it's very early. But Bush trails Rubio and Cruz and Trump and the delegate count. If you want to talk about which establishment lane candidate has the best chance of breaking out -- I forget who said it earlier -- but I think John Kasich has some limits on where he is going to go. He doesn't have much of a ground game. He made a clear pitch to sort of liberal Republicans here in New Hampshire.
Marco Rubio has a much higher net favorability rating than Jeb Bush does. Jeb is, I think, minus-1 right now. Rubio is plus-25 or thereabouts. I think it's just harder to see -- hard to have Jeb make that argument that he is now the one that people should rally around because Rubio had a bad moment in the debate.
HANNITY: All right, guys. Thank you all for being with us. We appreciate it.
When we come back, more reaction to the results out of New Hampshire. Donald Trump surged to victory in the granite state. On the Democratic side, self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton by a huge margin. We have a full report from Ed Henry. That and more tonight on HANNITY.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want to say I still love New Hampshire and I always will.
(AUDIENCE CHEERING)
And here's what we're going to do. Now we take this campaign to the entire country. We're going to fight for every vote in every state. We're going to fight for real solutions that make a real difference in people's lives.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, I-VT., DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have sent the message that will echo from Wall Street to Washington, from Maine to California.
(AUDIENCE CHEERING)
And that is that the government of our great country belongs to all of the people and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors and their super PACs.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: All right. That was 2016 Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders earlier tonight responding to the results our of New Hampshire. Of course, Sanders beat Clinton by a huge margin.
Joining us now live from Bedford, New Hampshire, is our own Ed Henry. Ed, you know, go back to '92 and 2008, New Hampshire's been very good to the Clintons. Not this year. This was a really -- she lost every demographic.
ED HENRY, FOX NEWS SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Right. And it was (inaudible) because I was on the ground today with some of the Clinton volunteers and advisers in Nashua and what they were saying to me privately, off camera was, look, Bernie Sanders has had a big lead. We just want to get this down to a loss of single digits. Let it be five points, six points. Slow the Bernie momentum. Instead, you know, it's not complete yet. But with something like 92 percent in, it's a 20, 21 point drubbing for Hillary Clinton. So they did not close the gap.
And you're right. Look, the Clinton camp has been trying to lower expectations by saying Bernie Sanders is from the neighboring state of Vermont. Well as you note, Bill Clinton did quite well here, didn't win, but came in second and became the comeback kid in '92 and then Hillary Clinton, after losing Iowa coming in third in '08, won here. So it has been kind of to the Clintons. And it wasn't this time.
Quickly I'll run through some of the other numbers you've mentioned. Hillary Clinton took a hit on who do you -- you know, does being honest and trustworthy matter to you? 70, 80 percent went to Sanders. That shows that there's an ethical drag here. Young people, 80, 85 percent going to Bernie Sanders. That's an enthusiasm problem for Hillary Clinton. And then finally, independents went big. 70, 80 percent for Bernie Sanders. So even if Hillary Clinton limps through and gets the nomination, she has a real problem maybe in the general election with independents.
On the positive side for Hillary Clinton, let's not forget. The calendar is going to get more kind. We're going to start going south. South Carolina, Georgia, states where the African-American vote will matter and where Hillary Clinton has a clear advantage, as Joe Trippi was saying. So Hillary Clinton might be able to last it out here.
But final point is look, the Democrats don't do winner take all like the Republicans do in a lot of states. It's proportional. So with the money that Bernie Sanders is getting over the internet, some of the momentum he has, he can hang around for a long time and drag this out and make it a bloody struggle and even if Hillary Clinton prevails in the end, she could be very weakened. And look, after a deadlock in Iowa -- Yeah, go ahead.
HANNITY: Yeah -- Well he made it very clear meaning Sanders tonight. He's going all the way. He's not getting out of this race any too soon. Why is it assumed -- and I saw this, the big part of the coverage tonight -- Why is it assumed that Hillary Clinton will get a larger percentage of the minority vote?
HENRY: Well, because of Bill Clinton and their attachment with the African- American community over the years, No. 1. No. 2, based on polling. I mean, we were using polls to say Bernie Sanders has a double digit lead, so I think -- in New Hampshire -- and that turned out to be accurate. And I think we need to be fair and say they were polls down in South Carolina, for example. There was a recent NBC one I remember using a couple weeks ago that suggests that Hillary Clinton had a -- I forget the number -- but in the range of 50, 60 point edge among African-Americans. That poll might be wrong. Maybe there will be others that show that the edge is not that big.
But there has been data, Sean, suggesting she has an edge. However, after a deadlocked Iowa and now the way things are trending in New Hampshire tonight, the latest number is Bernie Sanders was something like thirteen delegates out of New Hampshire. Nine for Hillary Clinton here. What does that mean? I mean, at least for now, we have a new frontrunner. And that's Bernie Sanders.
HANNITY: Yeah. Pretty amazing. Great story. Ed, thank you so much.
Joining us now with reaction, Fox News contributor, Monica Crowley, Democratic strategist, Penny Lee.
Monica, you keep reminding our audience that this was a lot deeper for Hillary because we now officially have confirmed that an FBI investigation is ongoing, the Justice Department, in fact, will stay on this case and then it becomes a big political football. What happens next after this?
MONICA CROWLEY, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well you know, we don't know because we have limited information coming out of the FBI investigation. But what happened to her tonight -- And there are two things going on here. You're right, Sean. No. 1, she's got the FBI investigation, which is looming her like a sort of Damocles. Anything could happen.
But secondarily now, what we're seeing in terms of these election results is near catastrophic for her. I mean, this is a woman with 100% name recognition. She had the endorsements of every major Democrat in the state of New Hampshire. She won New Hampshire 8 years ago and yet now she's losing to the disheveled 74-year-old socialist by a whopping 21 points.
HANNITY: Yeah, I know.
CROWLEY: There's something else really important here, Sean. Because to me the biggest story here is that she lost among women. Bernie Sanders won women by 55 percent. But going forward into South Carolina and some of these states were -- you were just talking to Ed Henry about the African- American vote -- in the state of New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders won 49 percent of the non-white vote. Those are two huge red warning signs for her on the political side, never mind the legal side with the FBI investigation.
HANNITY: All right. So if Bernie Sanders now, both in Iowa and New Hampshire, and I would argue that Bernie Sanders won Iowa -- separate story -- But if she's losing young people and she's losing women and it's assumed, and you point out that Bernie is doing much better with the minority vote than people have predicted, that tells me that Bernie could actually do well in South Carolina and the south and beyond and also the Democratic Party has moved solidly to the left. I think that's going to be a big factor as well.
Penny Lee.
PENNY LEE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, Sean. I mean -- Well, first of all, Sean, let me just say congratulations to Senator Sanders. I mean, he ran a terrific campaign there in New Hampshire and it was really great to see the enthusiasm and the record votes turn out. I mean, one of the things that's great about these highly-contested primaries, like you're seeing, is the overwhelming, you know, turnout that you're seeing both on the Republican and the Democratic sides. So kudos to Senator Sanders tonight for a great win.
But going forward, you're going to see a much more diverse electorate, as we've all talked about, as you all have mentioned tonight. So (inaudible) same. I mean, you had Iowa and New Hampshire that geared a lot more liberal than the rest of the country. You have a lot more diversified and you have Hillary Clinton that has, already, operations on the ground. So I think it's not all lost. One state does not make the nomination, as we see. Only 2 percent of the electorate is in.
HANNITY: No -- But as Steve Hayes pointed out, there's been a 60-some odd point swing in this race in the state of New Hampshire. That, by any definition, is a complete meltdown of a campaign. I watched Hillary tonight. She wasn't as angry as she was in Iowa. But you could sense it was in the background a little bit. And you know she was frustrated and you know that she didn't want to lose by the -- This was an embarrassing loss for her. And there is no other way to spin it.
CROWLEY: You know what, Sean, too. Two other trends. One we're seeing national polls that show her now running about even with Bernie Sanders. He's drawn even in a couple of national polls, so that seems to be trending toward him. And also the other big story is the overwhelming rejection of Mrs. Clinton by millennial voters. Bernie Sanders won the kids by 80 percent. Okay? So --
HANNITY: It's amazing.
CROWLEY: I mean a whole new generation is rejecting Mrs. Clinton.
HANNITY: Right. All right. And, Penny, let me go to another issue that we've talked about a lot. And that's Hillary does not have a likability factor. And when 60 percent of the electorate overall thinks that you're a liar and dishonest and untrustworthy, as many polls have pointed out, how does that person get elected to the White House?
LEE: Well and you also seen in many times polls after polls that she has the experience to lead this country, that it is the --
HANNITY: You're not addressing my question, though.
(CROSSTALK)
LEE: -- type of leadership that they want. So there's many factors that go into how somebody -- who they choose to vote for.
HANNITY: But Penny --
LEE: And so there is two different factors, whether it be experience, whether it be leadership or other things. So, you know --
HANNITY: I got that.
LEE: So Mrs. Clinton is going to put --
(CROSSTALK)
HANNITY: I got that. But Penny, wait a second --
LEE: -- a very dogged race going forward.
HANNITY: If 60 percent of the electorate thinks you're dishonest and untrustworthy, how do you win?
LEE: Again, you go back to your other strengths. There's many issues and there's many criterias in which people -- where they're going to have a chance, you know, in this (inaudible). I mean, Bernie is going to be in there for awhile. And you're going to see it being tested. So you're going to see that character and people are going to have that chance to vet her, have a chance to vet Bernie and they're going to be able to see what medal and who they want to put into the White House.
HANNITY: All right. Thank you both for being with us.
CROWLEY: Sean, I just want to add what I've been saying to you for months now, which is that I don't think the Democratic nominee is going to be either one of these two.
HANNITY: Very interesting. I'm not surprised at all. I'm not surprised at all if that turns out to be true. All right. Thank you both.
Coming up, reaction, analysis to the big political news out of New Hampshire. On the Republican side, Ohio governor John Kasich comes in second place. Does he get to keep that momentum going into South Carolina and ahead? We'll check in with Geraldo Rivera and Doug Schoen. They are here to weigh in. That and more as we continue on "Hannity."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. JOHN KASICH, R-OHIO, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tonight we head to South Carolina and we will move through South Carolina all across this country and we'll end up in the Midwest and you just wait. Let me tell you, there's so much going to happen. If you don't have a seat belt, go get one.
(AUDIENCE CHEERING)
(Inaudible). Thank you all very much and God bless you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KASICH: We're going to solve the problems in America not by being extreme, not by being first a Republican or a Democrat, but reminding everybody that we are Americans dedicating to shining up America and fixing what is wrong.
Tonight, we head to South Carolina and we will move through South Carolina all across this country and we'll end up in the Midwest. And you just wait. Let me tell you. There's so much going to happen. If you don't have a seat belt, go get one.
(AUDIENCE CHEERING)
(Inaudible). Thank you all very much and God bless you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: All right. That was John Kasich speaking to a crowd of supporters earlier tonight. The Ohio governor had a big night in New Hampshire. And by the way, he'll join us tomorrow to discuss how these results will affect his campaign.
But first joining us now with reaction, Fox News senior correspondent Geraldo Rivera, former Clinton pollster, Fox News contributor Doug Schoen.
Geraldo, obviously you have Trump, big win. You have Bernie Sanders, big win. On the Republican side, John Kasich outperformed all the polls and expectations. So, a great night for him, and I would argue Ted Cruz, who spent the least amount of time in the state and the least amount of money, came in third place. That's a win for him.
GERALDO RIVERA, FOX NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Let me start with Senator Ted Cruz. I totally agree with you, Sean. I think that Cruz way out-performed the effort he invested. Way outperformed expectations. He defied gravity. I'm not a big fan of his, but it's pretty clear that he is resilient and he'll be around, especially as we go into the Southeast with these primaries coming up, South Carolina and so forth.
In terms of John Kasich, we love John Kasich. Governor Kasich was a colleague of ours here at Fox. He was a suitemate of mine for a couple of years when he had his weekend show, here. He's a delightful person. His politics, I hasten to add, most reflect my personal politics in the Republican field. But I don't know where he goes from here. I don't know how much money he has. You know, moderates, that whole middle of the road, what happens in the middle of the road? You get road kill. I don't see where John goes from here, although he's delightful.
HANNITY: I think that's the point. I think South Carolina represents a unique challenge to him. Again, probably is very good for Ted Cruz. Very heavy eveangleical vote. Let's look at the real, clear politics average in South Carolina. We haven't had a lot of recent polls out there but if you look at the average, Donald Trump at 36, Cruz at 19, Rubio, and that, again, probably pre-debate numbers, which certainly, I think, hurt him, at least in New Hampshire, and then Bush, and Carson, and Christie -- Kasich is down there at 2 percent. So he has a lot of room to grow.
Doug Schoen, is that going to be friendly territory for Kasich? Or is South --
DOUG SCHOEN, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: It isn't. John Kasich is not going to do particularly well in South Carolina. If he makes it to the Midwest, he may well have some opportunity, but he's not going to be particularly strong in the South and I must tell you, 12 percent is 12 percent for Ted Cruz, given that he won Iowa. This is not a good night for him in my terms. Big night for Donald Trump. That, to me, is the whole story, and with Bernie Sanders, it is clearly, as you say, for outsiders.
HANNITY: I'm speaking relatively, though. Look, he spent little time, little money -- he spent $800,000 in ads, and Jeb Bush, for example, spent $35 million on ads. You can't say -- he wasn't expected to win New Hampshire.
RIVERA: Cruz beat Bush.
SCHOEN: It doesn't mean anything. Look, I've done this. I've run campaigns. You get 12 percent after you win Iowa, that's bad. South Carolina is, at this point, Trump country. It will be a two-way race. That's the real story. Can Cruz come back there? I don't think so.
HANNITY: All right, so who's the two way race between? I'm not disagreeing, the polls show that.
SCHOEN: Trump and Cruz. But Trump will get a bump out of this. He's clearly in a strong, and indeed, improving position.
RIVERA: Trump is the nominee, Sean. We have to get over that. I think that Governor Christie, for all that he invested, his principle accomplishment is that he finished off Marco Rubio. I don't think the boy in the bubble ever recovers from his mind lapse, his senior moment, even though he's a young senator, he just blanked. He doesn't have what it takes.
HANNITY: I want to go back to what you started out saying. You think Trump is going to be the nominee. OK. That means that the establishment has lost. They don't like Trump, and they don't really like Cruz. They have lost. They lost Iowa, they lost New Hampshire -- these numbers show that Trump has a route in South Carolina.
RIVERA: But it's even worse for the establishment than it's ever been, because now you have Bush, Rubio, and Cruz all survive. These guys all go forward now. They keep splitting the vote. Trump is going to continue to accumulate --
HANNITY: OK. How does Trump do in a general election? How does he do in a general election?
SCHOEN: Can I have a chance to get a word in? I think that Donald Trump is a very good general election candidate. Polls have shown him getting up 20 percent of the Democratic vote. I think he has a populist appeal that will cut across the board. Even though his negative is very high, I think he has potential that I don't think Ted Cruz has.
HANNITY: You know, it's interesting you say that, Dough, because you're the only person that has acknowledged that. I tend to agree with that statistic that, a 20 percent crossover rate is very, very high. I don't know any other Republican that gets that. And remember, his negatives were high going into the primaries and in Iowa caucuses, and over time, those negatives were driven down dramatically by double digits, 20 points in some instances. I've got to assume in a general election, probably the same thing would happen as people become more accustomed to who he is and his style.
SCHOEN: The other thing we're seeing is that Trump is moderating his tone. He's not moving away from his issue positions, but he's clearly demonstrating a subtlety to his candidacy that heretofore he hasn't shown. He was, I thought, dominant in the debate. I think Geraldo's exactly right. He's likely to be the nominee. Will be, I think, a very strong general election candidate.
HANNITY: All right. Next question. Are the Democrats, Geraldo, now going to look beyond Hillary and Bernie Sanders? I suspect they probably will. I suspect a lot of people are calling Joe Biden tonight and saying, please, Uncle Joe, crazy Uncle Joe, run. What do you think?
RIVERA: Well, I think that South Carolina is where South Carolina is in the primary calendar for a reason. It is a firewall, it's a much more representative state. There are no black people in New Hampshire. There are no Latinos in New Hampshire. It is a totally unrepresentative state, as Iowa also is. If Hillary does as expected in South Carolina, the discussion is over and then as long anticipated, it will be Trump versus Clinton in the general election. If black people desert Hillary Clinton as they did against Barack Obama in 2008, then I think that -- you're going to have no idea what's going to happen with the Democrats if that is the case.
HANNITY: So you're predicting it's Trump and Hillary, and you're predicting Trump wins?
RIVERA: I'm predicting it's Trump -- this is the thing about Trump. And I know that this raises the hair on the back of your neck, Sean. But I believe that Jimmy Carter is absolutely right about Donald Trump. Donald Trump is far more malleable -- that was the word President Carter used -- than say, Ted Cruz is. I believe, having known Trump all these decades, that he doesn't have a mean streak in his body. He's not going to go into peoples' homes and deport citizen children with their undocumented parents. He's going to monitor his tone --
HANNITY: OK. You say, conservatives will in the end be disappointed. I'm not so sure, because I think --
RIVERA: Oh, I don't think they'll be disappointed because he's a good business man, he's going to have a great tax policy from a conservative's point of view, he will be strong on foreign affairs and national defense, but I think that it will be much more schmaltzy than you think.
HANNITY: Schmaltzy? OK. Doug, do you agree with that analysis? Is it going to be Trump and Hillary?
SCHOEN: I think it is going to be Trump and Hillary with a but. There is the FBI investigation. Clearly, Sean, as we have discussed, there are serious allegations that are being investigated and if there are charges, and I think that's a fair question to raise -- it raises the specter of an alternative Democrat getting in the race.
HANNITY: Good to see you both.
(CROSSTALK)
HANNITY: IF the FBI makes a criminal referral -- if they make a criminal referral, all bets are off.
SCHOEN: I'm for Hillary but I've read the law. And the law is pretty tough on her.
RIVERA: I'm a lawyer.
SCHOEN: I am, too.
HANNITY: There's more felonies than I can have time to count on this show, Geraldo. We'll work it out the next time. And coming up, reaction. Analysis to the results out of New Hampshire. David Webb, Eboni Williams, Jedediah Bila are all here tonight as we continue.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TED CRUZ, R-TEXAS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Together, we have done what the pundits and the media said could not be done. And what the Washington establishment desperately hoped would not be done.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I believe so strongly that we have to keep up with every fiber of our being, the argument for, the campaign for human rights. Human rights as women's rights, human rights as gay rights, human rights as worker rights. Human rights as voting rights. Human rights across the board for every single American. Now that is who I am. That is what I've always done. That is why I am in this race.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: All right, that was Hillary Clinton tonight. Here with reactions, Fox News contributors, David Webb, Eboni Williams, Jedediah Bila. All right, it wasn't as bad, Jedediah, as it was in Iowa. Why does she yell like that? Why is she going so solidly left?
JEDEDIAH BILA, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: I don't know why she's yelling. I said I don't know why she's dressed as a priest. It's very odd. I think she's -- look, it's desperation. I think she's desperate. I think she's looking at how women voters are not buying her story. I think she's looking at young voters flocking to Bernie Sanders. Remember, last time she faced a battle against Barack Obama and Barack Obama was a guy who galvanized the youth, who galvanized a lot of groups that she didn't think he was going to get. So she's facing very similar obstacles again and I think she thought that she was going to roll right in and her husband's name and the Clinton name were going to carry her. And this is looking a lot harder for her now so I see a lot of desperation and she's raising her voice. But her stand on the issues is not hitting home. And also, the lack of honesty. People view her as dishonest and that's carrying great weight for Bernie Sanders.
HANNITY: Big time. All right, so she loses every demographic, Eboni, and the argument is, and the general consensus is, among the punditry class is that, well, once she gets to South Carolina and southern states, she'll start winning the minority vote. I'm not so sure I believe that.
EBONI WILLIAMS, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well, Sean, I might surprise you here, I am totally with you on that. I think that is so far from an open and shut case that people are going to be surprised. People have a short memory, Sean. There was a time when Hillary Clinton was beating Barack Obama with the black vote as well in the beginning of this early part of the 2008 primary. Because people weren't familiar with him. And that's what I feel like is going on with Bernie Sanders. People aren't familiar with him. Look, black people want to be successful in this thing. They want someone who's part of the establishment when they have no other choice. Bernie Sanders, I think, is doing a very good job of getting endorsements from people like Dr. Cornell West, Ben Jealous from the NAACP, and other people in the black community. So he is not taking that vote for granted. He's getting in South Carolina, he's getting in Flint, Michigan, and he's making the black community aware of who he is.
HANNITY: Well said. I was stunned, David Webb, as I listened all night. IT was just general assumption, oh, she's got that vote. And I'm like, well, it didn't happen last time in 2008. Thoughts?
DAVID WEBB, FOX NEWS POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know, I'm actually on the opposite side of Eboni on this one. Ben Jealous, the former head of the NAACP, his endorsement means nothing. Cornell West, it means something to a few. And the fact is the CBC and the Clintons are in bed and they're going to harness their power around her. And you look at who's not opposing her. Al Sharpton hasn't stepped out against her. He hasn't weighted in. I don't buy that Hillary Clinton is going to lose the black vote but I'll tell you what they missed there, Sean. Hillary Clinton is so desperate that tonight, in the speech, she talked about the vast right wing conspiracy and that was what we're going up against with the Super PACS.
HANNITY: Hang on, we've got to take a break. Our panel stays with us right after this quick break, straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HANNITY: Welcome back to "Hannity." We bring back our panel. Jedediah, all right. Big night for Donald Trump. He shows a lot of great numbers in South Carolina. I would imagine Ted Cruz is going to fight hard in South Carolina. What do you see unfolding there? Do you agree with Geraldo, that Trump goes all the way? Who's the biggest obstacle for him considering he's leading?
BILA: I think Ted Cruz is his biggest obstacle, particularly because a lot of conservative talk radio guys, our friend Mark Levin -- powerful people who people trust, on the right, are getting behind Ted Cruz pretty strongly. However, no one has been able to stop Donald Trump. He wasn't on the debate stage last time. It didn't matter. You know why it didn't matter, Sean? Because no one else was able to shine. People have had a really hard time stealing the microphone from him. Every time he says something outrageous and pundits come out and say, this is going to be it for him, he's done, it seems that people rally behind him more. He seems very much unstoppable. I don't see anyone right now who's going to catch him. And let's face it -- he's known for being the non-politically correct guy. So the more outrageous stuff he says, if he makes a crude remark, people embrace that because they see it as real and they don't want typical politicians with talking points. He is the anti-politician right now.
HANNITY: Eboni?
WILLIAMS: Yes, Sean. Yes, I don't disagree with the Trump part. I mean he absolutely has got full steam ahead. I think we are seeing a more measured, kind of general, electable type of candidate from Donald Trump. I do think him skipping the debate earlier did hurt him. I think it allowed Rubio to have a little bit of steam there that he did not capitalize on, and so, too bad for him. I actually think that moving forward, though, it is Trump's to lose. Absolutely. South Carolina, he's going to do really well. He is a very attractive general electorate candidate. Lots of independents and moderates like him. Lots of Democrats even like him, Sean. So I think that he is going to be incredibly tough to beat, generally speaking.
HANNITY: David Webb, what are your thoughts?
WEBB: I think Trump's giving them fits but we've got to see who drops out, where that shifts. Trump, does he have a ceiling or not is the big question. The governors delivered. Two of them delivered here in New Hampshire. Will they have their path to South Carolina? I'm not writing this story yet because to the points by both ladies, Trump is the story you can't write. He writes the story, he directs the narrative, and he gets away with what most people never would. But Sean, who's paying attention? America. Trump did the Republicans a favor. He did politics a favor. People are paying attention. You've got to give him the credit for that.
HANNITY: All right, Eboni and David and Jedediah, thank you all for being with us and we'll have more HANNITY right after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HANNITY: All right, unfortunately, that's all the time we have left this evening. Before we go, quick programming note -- be sure to tune in tomorrow night, our usual time, 10:00 Eastern. Governor John Kasich, Dr. Benjamin Carson, Marco Rubio, will all join us. Again, tomorrow night, 10:00 Eastern. As always, thank you for being with us and we will see you back here tomorrow night.
Content and Programming Copyright 2016 Fox News Network, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Copyright 2016 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.
Get all the stories you need-to-know from the most powerful name in news delivered first thing every morning to your inbox