What can we expect at the next GOP debate?
Former RNC Chair Haley Barbour reveals his expectations
This is a rush transcript from "Sunday Morning Futures," September 13, 2015. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
MARIA BARTIROMO, HOST: And it is on to round two. Hi, everyone. I'm Maria Bartiromo. Welcome to "Sunday Morning Futures."
GOP candidates hitting the ground running across several states this morning just ahead of the next presidential debate this week. Who has the momentum? Who's looking to make some moves against front-runner Donald Trump? We will preview what is at stake for the GOP field ahead of the big debate.
Plus, more trouble for Hillary Clinton this morning. A new report suggesting her private e-mail server may have never been wiped after all. Do those e-mails still exist? Could they be recovered?
And growing concerns about Russia building up its military presence in Syria. What does this mean for the future of the war torn nation? We're looking ahead this morning on "Sunday Morning Futures."
Well, the second GOP debate now just a few days away. The big Republican field proving to be even more contentious since the heated first debate you saw right here on the Fox News Channel. Will the, quote, "anti- establishment candidates" stand out once again on Wednesday and what issues will draw the most attention?
Joining me right now to talk about it and look ahead for us is Haley Barbour, former Mississippi governor and chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Sir, it is wonderful to have you on the program. Welcome, governor.
HALEY BARBOUR, FMR. REPUBLICAN NATL. CMTE. CHAIRMAN: Thank you, Maria. Thanks for having me.
BARTIROMO: So let's -- let's sort of assess the field right here both on the GOP and the Democratic side. First to the GOP. What are you expecting out of this upcoming debate?
BARBOUR: Well, I think that you'll see Donald Trump continue to be Donald Trump, for better or worse. I -- I think you will see some -- I hope you will see more focus on the problems of the country, the failures of the Obama administration, which is what this election ought to be about, and at what we're going to do to change that. More on public policy, how we would actually do what the American people know needs to be done. I think that's what this debate ought to be about. It ought to be about what's wrong with the country, how we would go about fixing it, and why that would work.
BARTIROMO: So which GOP candidate do you think offers the best economic plan? Last week Jeb Bush came -- came out with an op-ed on tax reform, and the headline of that op-ed was, my tax plan to ensure 4 percent growth. Is that doable? And who has the best plan in your vision?
BARBOUR: Well, of course, it is doable, as I just -- as I said. After the last big recession, we saw the economy grow at 4.8 percent over six -- a six-year period. So that is very doable. I don't think we've seen enough from all of them yet. I -- I think Governor Bush's plan, very consistent with what he did as governor of Florida where he was a reform governor. But there are others that I think will have more in depth plans. I hope they will be generally similar and they will be radically different from what the Obama administration has done with its record high taxes, record spending and what do we have to show? Very little.
BARTIROMO: Well, let's -- let's talk about what's been going on at the top of these polls, and that is Donald Trump, as well as Dr. Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina. The antiestablishment rhetoric has pushed these guys to the top of the field. Is it warranted?
BARBOUR: Well, look, people are mad. People are mad for good reason because of bad results. About 65 percent of Americans think our country's going in the wrong direction and they're right. And it's not just on the economy and foreign policy. We're about to culminate a deal with the Iranians, the principal sponsor of terrorism in the world, that doesn't achieve any of the goals that were set out. So people have got a good reason for being mad.
The question is going to be, after you get past the anger, are people going to then start focusing, OK, what should we do about it? Who's got the best plan? Who's got the capacity to actually get something done? I believe that the debate will -- I'm not talking about the debate this week, but I believe that the overall debate about the campaign will move to that direction before we start voting in February.
BARTIROMO: I want to get your take on Donald Trump's immigration policy. You know, he continues to say many times that he's joined us, that that wall around the U.S., between the U.S. and Mexico, is -- is going to happen. What are your thoughts about Trump's immigration policy?
BARBOUR: There's absolutely no question the first thing the American people want and deserve is a secure border. I'm not sure a wall all the way up and down the border is the total solution because there's technology or a lot of ways to do it. There have got to be people on the ground to do this. But the American people want and need a secure border.
But, secondly, we're not going to deport 11 or 12 million people who are here, most of whom work, most of whom have families. And the idea we're going to put them all in jail or we're going to deport them, you know, very, very few people believe that. In fact, most Republicans think that people who came here illegally, if they will confess that they did it, pay a fine, be put on probation, pay their court costs, haven't committed any other crimes, that they ought to be put on probation, let them stay here legally and if they serve out their probation, however many years it is, without getting into any trouble, ought to be able to stay here legally.
Now, that's a lot different from amnesty because they have to plead guilty, they have to be punished, pay a fine. And it's a lot different from a path to citizenship. It's -- it's you can stay here legally and if you want to apply for citizenship or a green card, you won't be prevented from it, but you're not going to get some special path. I think that's what the vast majority of Americans want. It's what the majority of Republicans want. And people understand that there are other things in immigration that matter.
Forty percent of the people here illegally didn't cross the border. Forty percent of the people here illegally came here on a visa and the federal government never enforced the visa when it expired. They didn't make them go back. So if you close the border, you would still have 5 million people here who came illegally but didn't come across the border illegally.
BARTIROMO: Yes, that's a really good point. Governor, let me ask you, before you go, to assess the Democratic field as well. Similar story there with the anti-establishment theme with Bernie Sanders, as strong as he is in the polls, and what is your take on-on Hillary's new strategy these days to be softer and apologetic?
BARBOUR: Well, it's a long time coming, and I think because it's -- she just the day before said totally bad -- you know, just hard-nosed about she wasn't going to apologize and then the next day she comes along and apologizes, it doesn't sell very well. It's taken so many months, and I don't think it has much affect at all.
But it is important what you say, Maria. There's always focus on the Republican side, the anti-establishment. Well, on the Democratic side, it's very similar. You know, Barack Obama has polarized our country more than any president in my lifetime and I think since the Civil War. I mean he is very polarizing. His results are terrible. But the left has kept moving further and further to the left and Mrs. Clinton, unlike her husband who tried to run up the middle and got elected that way, even though it was only 43 percent of the vote, she's made it plain, she's going to run to the left. She's going to be out there with Sanders. I think if Joe Biden gets in, he'll do the same thing. John Kerry would do the same thing. Of course Elizabeth Warren would -- would as well. So their side is very, very -- we thought it would just kind of be a coronation. It has turned out to be very, very different and very divisive over there, too.
BARTIROMO: Yes, it sure has. Sir, good to have you on the program. Thanks so much for your insights.
BARBOUR: Thanks, Maria.
BARTIROMO: Good to see you. Thank you. Governor Haley Barbour joining us.
And plenty more to talk about concerning the state of play in the 2016 race -- in the 2016 race for the White House, of course. But first, Donald Trump's meteoric rise in the crowded GOP field. Just how did he get there and can he sustain his front-runner status going into this new debate? Fox News senior correspondent Eric Shawn with that angle.
Eric, good morning to you.
ERIC SHAWN, FOX NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Maria, and good morning, everyone.
Well, now comes round two and the stakes get higher at the next debate on Wednesday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Raise your hand now if you won't make that pledge tonight. Mr. Trump.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SHAWN: Well, that first debate here on the Fox News Channel started with a bang. And instead of being tripped up, Donald Trump went up and up. The latest polls show he is so far maintaining that lead in the crucial first primary states.
In Iowa, Mr. Trump garners 21 percent to Ben Carson's 21 percent, followed by Cruz, Bush, Fiorina, Rubio, and Kasich. In New Hampshire, he's at about the same, 28 percent. But that happens to be double second place John Kasich, followed by Carson, Bush, Fiorina rounding out the top five. And in South Carolina, Mr. Trump is leading by even more than in Iowa and New Hampshire, at 37 percent according to at least one poll. But some rivals predict Trump won't last.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. MARCO RUBIO, R-FLA., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: These are long campaigns. I think ultimately voters are going to get very serious. They'll begin to focus in on the important issues.
SEN. RAND PAUL, R-KY., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think really under closer scrutiny that the celebrity factor of Donald Trump is going to go way down. I think people are going to say, my goodness, he's a fake conservative.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SHAWN: Well, that means at the next debate voters will likely give Trump's statements that extra scrutiny Senator Paul predicts. See if Ben Carson can expand his base. And judge Jeb Bush's prospects in the wake of his slipping poll numbers.
But for some, Carly Fiorina has already gained the most by squeaking by as the 11th candidate in the prime time debate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CARLY FIORINA, R-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I believe we need someone in the Oval Office who actually understands how the economy works. I believe we need someone in the Oval Office who understands how the world works and who's in it. I know more world leaders on the stage today than anyone running, with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton, only I didn't do photo ops, I had meetings.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SHAWN: Well, there are still 10 more Republican primary debates scheduled, six Democratic primary party debates. All promise to be quite a show. And like the U.S. Open, unpredictable but an upset already in the making, at least, Maria, for now.
BARTIROMO: That is true. A great analogy there. Eric Shawn, thank you.
Meanwhile, Russia stepping up its military involvement in Syria in a big way with major developments overnight. What is behind Vladimir Putin's support of the Assad regime? What does all of this mean for the U.S. and our allies in the region? We will talk about it next.
Hope you'll follow us on Twitter, @mariabartiromo, @sundayfutures. We're talking with Gary Kasparov next, former chess champion turned political activist. We'll get his insights. What would you like to hear from Kasparov. We're looking ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Major developments in Syria. Russia's defense officials saying that their military cargo planes have delivered supplies to set up a tent camp for more than 1,000 refugees. This as Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to cast the military buildup and arm supplies going to the Assad regime, a key ally, as part of an international effort in the fight against ISIS. Meanwhile, President Obama is expressing concern about Russia's increasing involvement in the four-year-old Syrian civil war.
Joining us right now to talk more about it is Garry Kasparov. He is chairman of the New York based Human Rights Foundation. He is also the former world chess champion.
Gary, it's good to see you.
GARRY KASPAROV, HUMAN RIGHTS FOUNDATION CHAIRMAN: Thanks. Good to be with you.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much for joining us.
You are out with a book right now called "Winter is Coming" about Putin and Russia. What's your take on Russia increasing its presence in Syria?
KASPAROV: To be expected. We have been looking for different soft spots on the world map for Putin to attack next after the Ukraine. We're talking about Baltics, about maybe north Caucuses (ph). But he found even a better spot because he -- he can achieve many goals by -- by one shot in Syria.
He supports Assad. It's a -- it's a long standing ally of Soviet Union and Russia. He also sent a message to all the dictators in the world that Putin does not leave his clients, you know, in trouble. And, of course, he is working closely with Iran. That's another strategic ally of -- of Putin there. And together they -- they believe they can control the Middle East, which is a vital region to control oil prices, that's also vital for Putin. And as a side effect, good for Putin, hundreds of thousands potentially millions of refugees flooding Europe and that's good because it creates chaos in Europe. And Europe, in chaos, is not -- is no longer capable to oppose Putin as one -- one unit to (INAUDIBLE) the Russian Ukraine.
BARTIROMO: Yes, one -- one of the -- one of the real concerns here is the advanced S-300 air defense system. U.S. officials are concerned that Russia is moving ahead with these plans to sell Iran this sophisticated missile system. Why would they want to sell this missile system that actually could undercut Washington's ability to check on Tehran's air space and check on Tehran's ability to create a nuclear bomb?
KASPAROV: Because Putin -- Putin always was a faithful ally of Iran. And, by the way, the Iranian nuclear program started all the way back in the mid '90s. It was Bill Clinton who raised this issue with Boris Yeltsin in 1995 and Russia paid no attention. And since that, the United States tried desperately to bring Russia as -- as a partner to stop the Iranian nuclear program, ignoring the fact that Russian -- Putin's actually, strategic interest in the region is exactly the opposite to America -- America's and the free world interest.
BARTIROMO: Unbelievable. The latest Russian activity in Syria unlike any officials have seen before since the start of the Syrian civil war four years ago, according to U.S. officials. This as we await the Iran developments on Monday.
KASPAROV: But it's -- this -- the problem with the Iranian deal is I don't want to go into technical details, is that this administration, and its allies in America and in Europe, they know the fact that for Iranians, for Putin, for (INAUDIBLE) in Venezuela, for Castro, for Castro regime in Cuba, for North Koreans, international conflict is an extension of domestic policies. They need conflict, you know, to distract their oppressed citizens from their -- their -- their own problems. And by creating these problems, they -- they -- they play their sort of best card. It's their -- it's their hot currency. And the expectations that it can change the behavior is wrong. You know, as long as Iranian -- Iran is controlled by (INAUDIBLE), the great Satan will never retire.
BARTIROMO: Yes, exactly. That's exactly what they call America, the great Satan.
KASPAROV: Absolutely.
BARTIROMO: And Iran has -- has okayed Russian overflights to Syria. So they're okaying Russian flights en route to Syria over Iran.
KASPAROV: They are the closest allies in the region. Russia sells Iran the most sophisticated weapons. Russia helped Iran in this -- in this nuclear deals. Iran knows that Russia will veto any new attempt of the United States to impose new sanctions and we know it's not going -- it's not going to happen. So -- but together they believe that they have a great shot in the region and while, you know, Putin can distract the world to pay attention to Syria, to get Lebanon, to Iraq, I mean to the whole region, he exacts that he could have a free hand in Ukraine.
Let's not forget, you know, just yesterday we -- we heard -- had reports about new Russian military buildup at the border with Ukraine. So that's why Putin's game is not over. And one thing we can predict for sure, he sees the weak spot. He sees America retiring. He'll definitely fill the vacuum.
BARTIROMO: Yes, which is why you write in the book, Putin trades on conflicts.
KASPAROV: Yes, on conflicts, on fear.
BARTIROMO: And on fear. Garry, the book is "Winter is Coming." Thank you so much for joining us today.
KASPAROV: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: We appreciate your time. Garry Kasparov, "Winter is Coming."
The Federal Reserve could vote as soon as this week on whether or not to raise interest rates. The meeting is Wednesday and Thursday. That's the big event for business. We're going to look ahead to the impact on markets and your life as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures." Back in a minute.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
The Federal Reserve board is meeting this week, Wednesday and Thursday, with potential for a big move; the board is expected to decide whether to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006.
It would be the first rate hike since then at a time when the stock market has been on a roller coaster ride and the economy has been moving at a snail's pace.
How should they proceed?
Joining me right now is Tom Wilson, CEO of Allstate Insurance.
Tom, it's good to have you on the program.
TOM WILSON, CEO, ALLSTATE: It's good to be here.
BARTIROMO: What kind of impact would higher rates have on your business and on financial services generally speaking?
WILSON: Well, to start with, on our business, rates go up on a long-term basis we'll make more money. But rates have moved up a lot in the last couple of years anyway. If you look at the 10-year bond rate, used to be at 150, today it's at 2.2 and a quarter. So you're up 50 percent on long rates in a couple of years. So I think the Fed should get out of the way.
BARTIROMO: So you think they should just raise rates and get out of the way?
WILSON: Yes, I think the economy is ready to go. It's sort of like when a kid is riding a bike and you have to hold it and you have to let go at some point. You hope they don't fall. The economy is ready. Let go.
BARTIROMO: Well, I'm glad you said that, that you think the economy's ready, because there is a bit of a debate. With the price of oil plummeting, with the entire commodities complex plummeting, oil, iron ore, copper, all of these things are supposed to be telltale signs that are suggesting things have slowed down quite a bit in the global economy. Because the commodities are industrial metals, how do you see it?
WILSON: Well, I think the worldwide economy has slowed down a lot, driven by China, of course.
But actually with commodity prices going down, it gives the e.u. and other people more room to use monetary policy to lift them up because they're less worried about deflation. So in terms of the United States, we're in good shape. I wouldn't worry about it.
BARTIROMO: What about the fact that some of the shale companies are over leveraged?
If, in fact, oil prices keep coming down they have to renew their credit facilities. That's another worry, that there are going to be job cuts in the oil sector.
That's really where we've been seeing the job creation.
WILSON: Well, clearly the energy sector is under a lot of pressure this year. And we have a huge $40 billion fixed income portfolio. We follow all those companies. The energy companies have gotten themselves a little bit over their skis.
Yet it's just one sector of the U.S. The beauty of our economy is oil is down, manufacturing is up. We have services up. So we're not concerned about it.
BARTIROMO: I want to ask you about your patents that you've recently received in terms of the connected car.
WILSON: Yes.
BARTIROMO: You are going to have sensors all over the car that basically gives you much better idea of how people are driving.
WILSON: Yes.
BARTIROMO: Not just the people in the car but people in surrounding cars. Tell us what you're doing with the connected car.
WILSON: Well, first, all this new technology, sensors, you talk about GPS, telecommunications and it helps us give a more accurate price to our customers.
So when we're pricing your insurance we're making an estimate of how often you'll have an accident. We do it on what kind of car you drive, how many accidents you have, your age. This gives us very specific information.
When we ask our customers if we can give you a discount, would you do this, almost all the time they hit the bid; 60 percent of the people get lower prices.
BARTIROMO: Because you have so much more information that you could actually dictate the pricing. But some of the worry out there is that it's like spying.
WILSON: Yes.
BARTIROMO: You will also be able to know if there's alcohol in the air if someone was drinking, right --
WILSON: Yes.
BARTIROMO: -- behind the wheel? You will be able to know how many people are in the car, you can hear their voices.
Where does this information go?
Are you going to sell people's data?
WILSON: We're going to use the data to give people a better experience. We're not selling the data. But to the extent we could help you, for example, get a discount because you're driving by a place where they sell coffee, you can drive through and you've never driven through, maybe we'll give you a free coffee if you go through there. But the whole spy thing, look at your phone. I mean, like, the amount of location data connected to people's phones today, this is a fraction of what we're talking about, what's already collected.
BARTIROMO: What you're saying is, the horse has left the stable. There's no privacy anyway.
WILSON: Well, and it's about making your life better. So we're actually working on not only better pricing but trying to make the driving experience better.
For example, you could have a competition with your friends on who's a better driver.
BARTIROMO: How do you insure a driverless car?
WILSON: That would be insured by a commercial insurance policy.
BARTIROMO: Oh, OK.
WILSON: But driverless cars are going to come. This personal transportation industry is really inefficient. Average cost of a car is about $9,000 a year. Average household has a couple of cars.
BARTIROMO: Wow.
WILSON: So if you could cut that cost by a third, it's probably like a 10 percent pay increase for households. It will come, but it will take a long time.
BARTIROMO: Wow. Driverless cars, I want to be alive to see that one.
Tom, good to have you on the program.
WILSON: Nice to be here.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much.
Tom Wilson is the CEO of Allstate.
A new report says Hillary Clinton's private e-mail server was not wiped after all, meaning her e-mails may not have been deleted.
But are they now gone forever?
What it means as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures." Back in minute.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SHAWN: From America's news headquarters, I'm Eric Shawn. Here are some of the other stories that are making headlines at this hour.
Four firefighters suffering second-degree burns while battling a massive wildfire in northern California. They were air lifted to a hospital burn unit and are now in stable condition. That wildfire breaking out yesterday. It's called the Valley Fire in Lake County, about 100 miles from Sacramento. The fire scorching 10,000 acres in just a few hours. Meanwhile, other fast-moving wildfires are also burning southeast of that city, destroying at least 86 homes and threatening now thousands more.
And there's been a chilling message from the leader of al Qaeda, Ayman al- Zawahiri, coming only two days after our country marked 14 years since 9/11. In that new audio recording, he reportedly calls on Muslims to carry out individual attacks here and in other western countries, telling potential terrorists to focus on moving the war to the west, to the hearts and homes of our cities. An intelligence source confirming to Fox News Channel that U.S. officials are now analyzing that recording.
And I'll be back with Arthel Nevelle at noon eastern with more news. And as always, the doctors are in. Dr. Siegel and Samadi join us for "Sunday Housecall" at 12:30 Eastern, two hours from now.
So for now, I'm Eric Shawn, and back to "Sunday Morning Futures" and Maria.
BARTIROMO: Thanks, Eric.
New reports that the company who managed Hillary Clinton's private e-mail server says it has no knowledge that the server was actually wiped clean. That means that the more than 30,000 e-mails that Clinton said she deleted from the device could possibly be recovered. Clinton has said that personal e-mails sent and received while she was secretary of state were deleted from the server. But deleting e-mails is not the same as wiping a server clean.
I want to bring in our panel on this. Ed Rollins is former principal White House adviser to President Reagan. He has been a long time strategist to business and political leaders and he is a Fox News political analyst. Susan Ferrechio is with us today, chief congressional correspondent with "The Washington Examiner." And Dan Yergin with us today, vice chairman of IHS, and author of "The Quest and the Prize." He is also a Pulitzer Prize- winning journalist.
Good to see you. Thank you so much for joining us, everybody.
DAN YERGEN, VICE CHAIRMAN OF IHS: Thank you.
SUSAN FERRECHIO, THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: All right, this server perhaps may very well have not been wiped clean. Ed Rollins, what's your take on this latest piece of info?
ED ROLLINS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think her private e-mails matter at this point in time because nobody's -- she's not going to give them up and no one's going to be able to get ahold of them. You can try with subpoenas and Senator Grassley and others might if they have some evidence, but they're not going to get them automatically. What she still has to worry about is the classified information that's on those -- on those documents and basically the FBI chasing after it. I think that's far more serious.
BARTIROMO: There is a new ABC News/"Washington Post" poll, Susan, and basically what we're seeing here is that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are neck in neck. This is the latest poll just coming into the Fox News newsroom and it shows Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 43 percent. Clearly this e-mail situation is narrowing the gap for Hillary.
FERRECHIO: A statistical tie. I think the party is getting nervous. I would always contend that her main problem is a general election problem because she's still the favorite candidate for the primary. But the party is now looking at her as a potentially flawed candidate for the general election. Somebody who could lose based in part on this whole e-mail controversy.
Now, if those e-mails truly can't be recovered, you know, this may all end up as part of the big muddled mess of the e-mail server. But if they are able to take those recovered e-mails and find that there were indeed work e-mails included, that will be another blow against her trustworthiness because she said there were definitely no work e-mails. These were all personal e-mails. Who knows what it could reveal.
BARTIROMO: Right, which is why Joe Biden is increasingly hearing "run, Joe, run," from his -- his corners.
ROLLINS: Susan's exactly right, though, her challenge is not going to be by any of the Democrats unless -- unless there's an indictment or there's a health problem or what have you. She's going to be very, very tough to beat in the Democratic primary. But her integrity issue is becoming more and more of a problem and she's proving again that she's not a very good candidate. She's now had several months -- you compare her time running and Trump's time. Trump has moved to the forefront of a very serious pack of candidates and she has gotten diminished by the day.
BARTIROMO: That's pretty extraordinary.
YERGIN: But -- but if she does stumble --
FERRECHIO: Yes.
YERGIN: It certainly is a vacuum and that's why as you say Joe or John Kerry or others are at least looking to see what could -- what could happen.
FERRECHIO: Yes. And in the polling it's important to note, even though she's leading the Democratic field, when you look at the general election lineup, Biden does better against some of these candidates than she does.
ROLLINS: Yes.
FERRECHIO: And that's something that the Democratic Party, I'm sure, is paying attention to.
BARTIROMO: Have we been able to identify who has the best economic plan, Dan Yergin? I mean here we are in an economy that continues to show numbers that are underwhelming, whether it's on the jobs front or the -- or the growth front. Do we know who has the best plans to move the needle on jobs and growth yet?
YERGIN: No, I don't -- I think, obviously, Jeb Bush has come out with his plan and on taxes and so forth to try and get growth going, as you talked about in the earlier part of this show, but most of them haven't. It's just really words.
It is true, when you look at the world economy, probably the global economy, the country that's doing the best right now is the U.S. and a country that people always thought would pull everything along, China, continues to weaken.
BARTIROMO: Do you think the Fed will raise rates this week when they -- when they meet on Wednesday and Thursday?
YERGIN: Well, I don't know. I'm wondering if they'll be watching the debate on Wednesday night and decide after -- after watching the Republican debate. I think the odds are against it given -- you know, could be wrong instantly -- but I think given the turmoil and the uncertainty about China and the financial markets that they would be kind of risk adverse to do something that might add to the instability.
ROLLINS: The only thing that Republicans can all agree on is we need to reduce the corporate rate. We have the highest corporate rate in the world and we need to reduce that if you want to basically stimulate the economy. The Democrat counter to that is you have to make the taxes up somewhere else, raise taxes on the rich. Republicans aren't going to buy (ph) that.
BARTIROMO: Yes, a lot to talk about because the economy is an open question ahead of such an important week.
Let me get to Howie Kurtz right now and get a look at what's coming up top of the hour. He's actually going to be speaking with Dr. Ben Carson.
Howie, good morning to you.
HOWARD KURTZ, FOX NEWS HOST, "MEDIABUZZ" : Good morning to you, Maria. And you set me up very nicely.
A fascinating interview with the neurosurgeon who's number two in the GOP polls. We talk about his dust-up with Donald Trump. We talk about race relations. He was in Ferguson the other day. We talk about the way the media has covered him. And I must say, he told me he's sorry that he questioned Trump's faith. And he does not answer questions the way most politicians do. Perhaps that's part of his appeal.
BARTIROMO: All right, we will be watching that. And, of course, I know you'll ask him what his economic plan is to move the needle on growth, as we've been discussing. Howie, we'll see you in about 20 minutes.
KURTZ: OK.
BARTIROMO: Republican leaders vowing to keep up the fight against Iran and the nuclear deal there, meanwhile, but after this week's critical votes on Capitol Hill, what exactly is left in the GOP toolbox to defeat this agreement?
Plus, the impact of plummeting oil prices on the Iran deal. Commodities, the overall economy and your bottom line as we look ahead this morning on "Sunday Morning Futures." Our panel returns next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Republican leaders vowing to do everything that they can to keep up their fight against the Iran nuclear deal, even though it still seems certain that the White House will have its way. In their return from summer break, many Democrats previously on the fence about the deal eventually backed it after an intense White House lobbying effort led by President Obama. So what arrows do GOP leaders still have in their quiver to block this agreement? We bring back our panel, Ed Rollins, Susan Ferrechio and Dan Yergin.
Ed Rollins, isn't this a done deal?
ROLLINS: It's -- it's a done deal. The only thing that you can do at this point in time is really point out the deficiencies in this and how -- how - - it's not in the benefit of America in any way, shape or form and make some of these Democrats pay a heavy price for it.
BARTIROMO: Susan, you -- you think that they're still going to try to block it somehow?
FERRECHIO: Yes, they don't look like they just blew this and weren't able to send to the president's desk this resolution of disapproval. They weren't able to pull that off. So no Republicans are talking about going to the courts. Maybe trying to find some way to stop the president.
You know they were lifted up when the -- the courts last weaken endorsed their lawsuit against ObamaCare. So everyone's now talking, what can we do in the courts? Legislatively, there's no path to get the president to stop this deal.
BARTIROMO: I know, Dan Yergin, at some point there will be more oil on the market from Iran, Iranian oil, but you say there's a bit of a booby trap --
YERGIN: Right. Well --
BARTIROMO: For companies wanting to operate in Iran.
YERGIN: Yes. Yes. First of all, of course, we can -- going back to what the U.S. can do, the thing is, this was a coalition. Coalition will break down if the U.S. pulls out and the other countries, they're already showing up in Tehran to do deals.
BARTIROMO: Maybe, but the U.S. still led all those countries. Initially they didn't want to do it. The U.S. basically brought everybody to the table. So it was the president -- this is the president's deal.
YERGIN: Yes. Yes. Now in terms of the booby trap is that we still have a lot of other sanctions that are in place, including on the Revolutionary Guards. So if you're a company and you go to Tehran and do a deal with a company -- and, by the way, it's really the Revolutionary Guards, you're violating U.S. sanctions. So companies are going to have to be very cautious and careful about what they do there because it could come back and really bite them.
BARTIROMO: So it's not going to be then -- it doesn't sound like it's going to be that simple to go and put your tent up and operate in Iran?
YERGIN: No. And it's -- and it's going to be difficult dealing with the Iranians because they're going to be very tough negotiators. And they're still in the 1970s in some ways.
BARTIROMO: Well, more than that. I mean what -- what are these comments coming out of the ayatollah, the supreme leader, the grain sane of America, let's bring the war back, and individual attacks.
ROLLINS: They -- they -- they see -- they see the president and America as a speed bag. I mean they're punching them like -- like our punching bag. And I think, at the end of the day, the Chinese will benefit because they'll sell arms. The Russians, obviously, are going to sell lots of stuff. We gain nothing from this. We got not one single thing out of this but the premise that they will not have a nuclear weapon in the foreseeable future, which they will have (INAUDIBLE).
BARTIROMO: I -- I feel like I'm in "The Twilight Zone." We just did this deal and all -- all you hear from the supreme leader of Iran is criticizing and attacking America.
FERRECHIO: Well, but I think -- yes.
YERGIN: That's it. We're -- and so we're not going to have anything other - - we're not going to do anything else with the U.S. We still hate them.
FERRECHIO: Well, because they have to say that because they're just struck a deal with the U.S. and they have to make sure that their base knows that they still hate the U.S. So they have one message to their base, one message when they're talking to John Kerry.
BARTIROMO: Unbelievable.
FERRECHIO: Yes.
YERGIN: I mean there is the hope, you know, that somehow there's going to - - that Iran will open up and the young people will embrace America and we'll have -- that will change the whole orientation. However, you know, that's a -- that's a big bet.
ROLLINS: Yes, we've been looking for moderates. My days in the White House, in the early '80s, we were looking for moderates at that point in time and we've never found the moderates and they're not going to come in the foreseeable future in their government or any other elements.
BARTIROMO: And at -- and all at the same time you've got an economy here which is basically two steps forward, one step back. How worried are you, Dan, about the commodities collapse? I have an article in "USA Today" newspaper tomorrow which basically looks at the shale players and how lower oil prices is going to push many of those guys into bankruptcy, meaning more job cuts, meaning more pressure for the broader economy.
YERGIN: Yes. Well, you know, this unconventional revolution, this shale revolution, was the most positive thing -- even Ben Bernanke said that -- to have happened to the U.S. economy since 2008. It's not just people in the oil industry. It's manufacturing. It's I.T. and everything else.
BARTIROMO: Indirectly tied to it. Yes.
YERGIN: Yes. And the jobs here in New York City, despite the fact that it's banned in the state of New York, but with that -- but I think we're now going to see the negative impacts reverberate. That's one reason we're not seeing as big an impact from lower oil prices on the economy as you would have thought if we were still importing lots of oil and we're importing a lot less. And I think you're right, that come this autumn, there's going to be a lot of pain in the sector.
ROLLINS: It also pushes off our -- our whole premise in energy independence way off. And my sense is, that was one of the positive things we were doing.
BARTIROMO: And one of the new leaders, or the new president, will have to decide whether or not we lift that oil sales embargo.
YERGIN: Yes. It's --
ROLLINS: We could have --
YERGIN: It's so strange that we have -- we're going to lift the embargo on Iranian oil but continue to have an embargo on the export of U.S. oil.
ROLLINS: And we've lost -- where is the pipeline?
BARTIROMO: Exactly. Exactly.
All right, we'll take a short break and then we want to zero in on this next debate coming up this week, this CNN debate. Donald Trump remains the front-runner in the GOP race for president, but that could change with the upcoming presidential debate. We'll discuss what to expect in the unexpected. We're looking ahead today on "Sunday Morning Futures." Back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Well, get ready for round two. GOP candidates preparing to square off in the second presidential debate this upcoming week. This time, eleven candidates will take the stage. Carly Fiorina is joining the other top 10 polling candidates. Our panel back with Ed, Susan and Dan.
What are you expecting Wednesday, Ed?
ROLLINS: First of all, the second part, the bottom debate doesn't matter. All of those candidates are gone. They're not going to move forward. Three or four here have to make a big inroad, not on beating up on Trump, but in breaking themselves out. Bush has to be out of the box, Kasich, Rubio, and obviously Walker, who's diminishing. If someone doesn't emerge in this thing as a serious challenger, you're going to get to a point where you're in Iowa without -- with Trump still leading the pack.
BARTIROMO: Yes, and --
FERRECHIO: Oh, (INAUDIBLE).
BARTIROMO: And -- and, you know, anybody who attacks Donald Trump, he will come back at you full force.
ROLLINS: And -- and the danger is --
FERRECHIO: Yes.
ROLLINS: It would be a gang attack. My sense is everyone is going to want to take their shot at him and they're all working on their lines and what have you.
FERRECHIO: Don't -- but don't forget, though, they've got the bell. People only have a certain amount of time to say things.
ROLLINS: Right.
FERRECHIO: I envision right now that those moderators are -- and I've moderated a Republican debate with Fox a few years ago, so I know how much effort goes into these things. They are going to be working on ways to get Trump to be substantive about the issues. He has avoided that so far. He's stayed at the top of the polls. Those times that people have tried to get him to be substantive on foreign policy, he has stumbled. So let's see how well they do at CNN to try to get him to talk detail about -- he's got to know who these leaders are, who the Iranian leaders are, who ISIS is. He's got to know who everybody is or he's going to look bad and that could really hurt him in the polls (INAUDIBLE).
BARTIROMO: Or at a minimum, Dan, he's got to have some specific plans. They all have to have a specific plan.
YERGIN: Well, that's what -- that's where -- you know, last time was rhetoric and -- and the Trump phenomenon. This time really do need to know, what do you think about the economy? How do you tackle it? What are you going to do about this regulation that keeps mounting and mounting? How do you stimulate the economy? And those are specifics that maybe we'll start to hear in this debate.
BARTIROMO: And how will you act when you're head to head against the leader of China? How will you be conducting yourself when you're up against the heads of the G-20?
YERGIN: Yes, you can't just say, we're going to push them around and get them to do what we want, because they're a formidable power. And, by the way, they have a lot of our dollars over there.
BARTIROMO: I'll be interested to see how Carly Fiorina handles Trump.
ROLLINS: She's -- she's going to do well but she's no -- she's not a front runner. The critical thing here is, we've already lost one governor this week, Governor Perry. Walker is on -- on oxygen. I mean he basically is -- be out of this real quick. Kasich has to move forward. And Bush really has to have a good debate or he's not going to be very successful (ph).
FERRECHIO: Well -- well, Carly Fiorina managed to move up quite a big in -- herself in the polls after that first debate --
ROLLINS: Right.
FERRECHIO: At the kids table.
BARTIROMO: Yes.
FERRECHIO: So she has the potential, I think, in this debate, especially if she takes on Trump in a meaningful and effective way, to move herself up and make herself more relevant in the polls and where she is right now.
YERGIN: And she's -- and she is the new factor in this debate, which makes it -- it different.
FERRECHIO: Right.
BARTIROMO: Yes. Well, she's the new factor, why, because she's --
YERGIN: She -- she wasn't there before. She's there. She's been --
FERRECHIO: She's the only woman on the stage.
BARTIROMO: Yes.
YERGIN: And she's been attacked by Trump and (INAUDIBLE) she'll come back.
ROLLINS: There's one -- there's one other overshadowing thing in this debate and it's at the Ronald Reagan -- it's got the big Air Force One behind it.
FERRECHIO: Right.
ROLLINS: You'll see them all basically trying to grab the ghost of Reagan as they trash each other and Reagan, obviously, never trashed anybody. But I think you'll see every one of them trying to say, I'm -- I'm the new Reagan. I'm the new Reagan (INAUDIBLE).
BARTIROMO: How much will you think news will come out of this? I mean, look, as we speak, as this debate is going to be taking place, Russia is increasing its military might in Syria. What's that all about, Putin and Assad?
FERRECHIO: Yes.
ROLLINS: Well --
FERRECHIO: That will be part of the discussion, I think.
YERGIN: Yes.
FERRECHIO: We'll really be able to get to see. You know, foreign policy is supposed to be one of the big issues in the 2016 campaign but we haven't heard a lot of discussion in detail by any of the candidates.
BARTIROMO: No.
YERGIN: Well, and Russia, I mean, it increases -- and the Russians have said this -- increases of some kind of accident between the U.S. and Russia.
FERRECHIO: Right.
YERGIN: We've already had problems over the Baltic Sea. And so I think in going into Syria, Putin is saying, obviously, divert from Ukraine, but also saying, we're a player here and you're going to have to deal with Assad in some fashion. So there's foreign policy. And you have the irony is that the Fed is meeting on the day -- the day of the debate and the day after the debate --
BARTIROMO: Right.
FERRECHIO: Right.
YERGIN: And so, you know, what are they going to say? Abolish the Fed during the debate?
FERRECHIO: No. Right.
YERGIN: What's -- they have to talk about the economy too.
BARTIROMO: What a week.
ROLLINS: (INAUDIBLE).
BARTIROMO: OK, so you've got Congress talking about the Iran deal. You've got a two-day Federal Reserve meeting and you've got the second GOP debate.
YERGIN: And -- and a weakening China.
BARTIROMO: And the -- and a weakening China. Absolutely. And these markets, global markets that are in flux because of it.
ROLLINS: And the U.N. coming into town the week after. So I mean that's --
BARTIROMO: That's true. Add one more thing to it.
ROLLINS: (INAUDIBLE).
BARTIROMO: The U.N. General Assembly.
YERGIN: That's the week after.
FERRECHIO: Right.
ROLLINS: Right. Well, it (INAUDIBLE).
BARTIROMO: What -- what do you make of the -- the differences in the candidates? I mean once they're all up there, how do you set yourself apart? That's what -- also what they have to be thinking. I mean like a John Kasich, how is he going to --
ROLLINS: Well, he has -- he has to be very substantive. He -- you know, you've got some very -- very good debaters. You've got Cruz, who we haven't even talked about, is a great debater. And Cruz basically is the one guy who wants to inherit the Trump thing when Trump falls. Mike Huckabee is a very good debater. My sense is they've got to have -- as you -- we've say, got to have some substance. Someone who basically nails a question and --
FERRECHIO: Right.
ROLLINS: You're going to get one or two questions and you've got to nail them, knock them out of the ballpark.
BARTIROMO: Yes, you're right about Ted -- Ted Cruz.
ROLLINS: Right.
FERRECHIO: You've got to be one of the highlights of the -- of the --
ROLLINS: You really have to be one of the highlights.
FERRECHIO: But remember back in 2012, these debates provided a format for the various candidates to have their own surges.
ROLLINS: Right.
FERRECHIO: Is that going to happen this time or is Trump just going to stay there at the top? That's my question.
ROLLINS: That's a very good question.
BARTIROMO: All right, we will -- we will attempt to answer it.
Let's take a short break and then we'll look at the one big thing to watch in the week ahead. Actually, there are several. This is "Sunday Morning Futures." We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back, with our panel, with the one big thing to watch for the upcoming week.
Dan Yergin, what are you watching?
YERGIN: I'm watching the weakness in China, the impact in commodity markets and, in particular, the downturn in the emerging markets. Brazil's now in junk territory in terms of bonds.
BARTIROMO: Yes, it was downgraded.
YERGIN: So, watch that.
BARTIROMO: I'm watching that, too.
YERGIN: Yes.
BARTIROMO: That's so important.
Susan, what about you?
FERRECHIO: I'm watching Congress and how they put together a short-term spending plan to keep the government open past September 30th. I know everybody is predicting a possible shutdown, but I think they're going to find a path to avoid that with at least a short-term spending bill they'll get working on this week.
BARTIROMO: God, you would hope so.
So what are you watching, Ed?
ROLLINS: I have to watch the debate. I think the critical thing here is, can Bush and Kasich, who are the establishment candidates, break out here a little bit and be viewed seriously and can Cruz or basically Carson start evaporating some of the Trump support.
BARTIROMO: Yes, we'll see about that. The debate is going to be important.
And, of course, I'm watching the Fed meeting. A two-day Fed meeting. We've got special coverage on the Fox Business Network on Thursday all day long.
That will do it for us. Thank you so much for our wonderful panel for being with us today.
ROLLINS: Thank you.
YERGIN: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: That will do it for "Sunday Morning Futures." Thank you for being with us. I'm Maria Bartiromo. I'll be back tomorrow morning on "Mornings With Maria" from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern on the Fox Business Network. Take a look at where you can find the Fox Business Network on your cable network or your satellite provider. or, of course, you could always click on channel finder at foxbusiness.com.
We have a big week planned ahead with all of the important events happening. The Fed meeting, as well as the GOP debate. And, of course, any news coming out of the Iran vote.
"MediaBuzz" with Howie Kurtz is next. Have a great Sunday, everybody.
Content and Programming Copyright 2015 Fox News Network, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Copyright 2015 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.
Get all the stories you need-to-know from the most powerful name in news delivered first thing every morning to your inbox