107 counties could decide the election

Swing counties voted for Bush in 2004, swung to Obama in 2008

This is a rush transcript from "The Five," October 22, 2012. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

BOB BECKEL, CO-HOST: This is a first. That was Credence Clearwater Survival (sic), right?

GREG GUTFELD, CO-HOST: No.

BECKEL: Damn.

Fifteen days left my friends, the magic number is 270 to win the Electoral College and the White House. To get to 270, it may come down to 107 key counties and nine coveted swing states. Bush won these counties in 2004, Obama took them in 2008. And the battle is off for them in 2012.

All right. Let's take a look at Florida to start. We're going to take a look at three states here and we'll get the other states this week and next week.

In Florida, you can see the counties are in the center of the state.

That's where the battle that's been held in Florida. It's known as the key corridor, the Tampa corridor. That's where Obama upset expectation and took Florida. Not big in the South.

The Democrats will win the South big. The Republicans will win the North big. It's the central part of the state.

KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE, CO-HOST: Those four counties.

BECKEL: And Obama did well. Yes, that's right.

All right. Let's take a look at Virginia. Ands, do you want to see something about Virginia? You're going to talk about Ohio. And let me ask --

DANA PERINO, CO-HOST: I wanted to make a point about, a lot of these counties that you're going to see on the map are suburban counties. And I think that matters for three reasons.

One is your house is probably worth less than when you bought it. And there's anxiety that tied up in that.

Second is gas prices are so much higher than they were four years ago and you're paying more to get to work everyday.

And the third thing is something Ann Romney touched on at the convention speech, which is that moms on those suburban counties are just looking for one thing: a little bit more comfort and they would like a little bit more time and not have to worry so much about the security for themselves. And they're taking care of their kids and their parents.

And so, I think suburban moms, if we still can go back to that, are still one of the key most important things on why these counties matter.

BECKEL: And the other thing I point out is a lot of those counties for Obama in Virginia were western part of the state. It was something, it was new strategy to go west, where Republican normally do well. Those are very rural counties. And I think the chances of Obama doing well there are probably not as good.

Greg?

GUTFELD: I would like to go to my three -- I have been looking at polls. My three favorite polls.

First one, that's the North Pole, it's where Santa lives. One of my favorites.

My next favorite pole, fishing poles. I usually catch fish, which I don't eat, I just watch them die.

And my favorite Pole, Pope John Paul II, greatest Pope ever, at least since Pope Gregory the Great.

BECKEL: OK. Can we go to Ohio? It's probably is the really big prize in this entire election. Ohio, you can see that there are not as many swing counties in that state. If you look down in southwest corner of Hamilton County, around Cincinnati, traditionally been a Republican area, Obama did very well in the suburbs.

Bring up Dana's point, there's a suburban problem I think for Obama that he's going to have to worry about.

The other, of course, is around Cuyahoga County, which is going to be heavily Democratic. The question is, you're going to get the Democratic turnout you had the last time in this big Democratic counties.

ANDREA TANTAROS, CO-HOST: Well, you hear a lot on the Democratic side about Obama's turn-out gain, which pretty impressive from what I understand.

But, one point, that independent voter, that swing voter -- the reason the president is having trouble suburban women make that up that voter and rural men. And that's why it's so baffling this whole time why he was talking birth control and not other issues.

But looking at Ohio, very quickly, Ohio is actually doing well.

People go, why is Ohio not on the president's checklist?

BECKEL: I'll ask Kimberly. The swing polls in these states -- what do they tell you?

GUILFOYLE: It's significant, because now we have seen where Obama was holding as much as 10-point lead. That's been cut in half. So, it's definitely trending Romney in battleground states, swing states.

There's a new poll out shows him in the dead heat in Ohio. So, whether or not he's going to be able to overtake him and get beyond the margin of error in those states, we'll see. But there's also been early voting.

BECKEL: Ohio is the one state that's getting to worry me frankly right now.

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