John Delaney, CEO of Tradesports

This is a partial transcript from Your World with Neil Cavuto, February 11, 2003, that was edited for clarity. Click here for complete access to all of Neil Cavuto's CEO interviews.

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NEIL CAVUTO, HOST: And with the threat of war, folks are willing to bet on war. Today, a little twist on futures trading. Folks who trade on wheat and oil futures are now cashing in on Saddam. Not exactly a commodity, but his political future could make you money. Joining me now from Dublin, Ireland, to explain how it all works is John Delaney, John is the CEO of Tradesports.

John, welcome, how does this work?

JOHN DELANEY, TRADESPORTS: Very simply. Tradesports is an exchange like any other exchange. And you have people trading particular futures online in real time.

CAVUTO: So you have ways of gauging how people feel about Saddam eventually being out of power, right? And the odds they take are much like futures based on key dates, March 31 is one, April 30 is another. At which point you see or can guess when Saddam might be gone, right?

DELANEY: That is very close, but not exactly right. The contracts are based on whether Saddam will or will not be in power at a particular point in time, for example, the end of March. And if he is not in power, a contract will settle at 100. And between now and the expiration of the contract at the end of March people trade those contracts between themselves. So we don't set the price but traders trading them on the exchange, they dictate the price.

CAVUTO: And what they seem to be saying is that soon or later Saddam is going to be out of there, right?

DELANEY: Well, looking at the March contract, and June contract as examples, currently the market is saying the traders, the thousands that have - 3000 that have traded these so far are saying that there is a 35 percent probability that he will be gone by the end of March. But if we go out as far as the end of June, the market is pricing in a probability of approximately 80 percent.

CAVUTO: All right. John Delaney, thank you very much. John Delaney is with Tradesports, they are the folks who are sort of handicapping Saddam Hussein's future. And if they are right, he doesn't have much of one.

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