What's a surer bet: Taxes going up or the government saving money?

Think about that, then think about this:

The merged House health care plan unveiled Thursday reportedly pays for itself two ways: Raising taxes on rich folks by about half a trillion bucks over 10 years and exacting huge savings totaling about half a trillion bucks over 10 years.

Presto-facto-done-oh: Trillion bucks for health care reform — bought and paid, case closed.

Really?

Leaving aside the fact the government has yet to prove it's good at saving money, let's focus instead on what it's proven very good at: Spending it. And something else: Taxing it, so it can keep spending it.

Now think about the folks it's taxing: Rich folks who presumably can and should pay up. Another 5 percent surtax on them — on top of the nearly 5 percent tax they'll be seeing soon.

So in short order, and likely the same year, the top income tax rate will jump from roughly 35 percent to 45 percent. Which doesn't include limiting a lot of these folks' deductions, which some argue quietly raises that top rate closer to 50 percent.

And with soaring state taxes and all these millionaire taxes that conveniently cover a lot more than millionaires, they're now looking at something closer to 60 percent.

Have any of these grand assumptions factored in what New York State never did? That you can raise taxes, but that doesn't mean you can raise revenue.

In New York, rich folks bolted or quit or retired. And revenues went down and now Governor David Paterson is wondering what's up.

Maybe he should call Harry Reid and tell him what's about to go down. I'm sure Harry will take the call. He's in his office, behind a door — a closed door.

Watch Neil Cavuto weekdays at 4 p.m. ET on "Your World with Cavuto" and send your comments to cavuto@foxnews.com

Neil Cavuto serves as senior vice president, anchor and managing editor for both FOX News Channel (FNC) and FOX Business Network (FBN). He is anchor of FNC's Your World with Cavuto - the number one rated cable news program for the 4 p.m. timeslot - as well as the FNC Saturday show Cavuto on Business. He also hosts Cavuto on FBN weeknights at 8 p.m. In addition to anchoring daily programs and breaking news specials on FNC and FBN, Cavuto oversees business news content for both networks and FNC's weekend business shows, including Bulls & Bears, Forbes on Fox, and Cashin' In. Click here for more on Neil Cavuto.