Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., “ropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Prediction: Heath Ledger
Chance of winning: 100%
“Is Heath really going to win?” people keep asking me. Yes, yes, yes.
He’s won the Globe, SAG and BAFTA trophies, not to mention a multitude of other critics’ awards. There’s no question that he delivers a powerful, show-stopping performance in The Dark Knight.
This is a chance to honor the film in a major category, especially since it was snubbed in the best picture race. And perhaps most significantly, it’s just too good a story for voters to pass up.
Giving the talented Ledger a posthumous Oscar will cement his legacy as one of the finest actors of his time. He’ll be talked about for decades to come. Even if Ledger hadn’t died and the legacy wasn’t a factor, he would still win.
Hoffman was tremendous in Doubt, but he won best actor just three years ago and the guilt factor associated with his character ruins his chances.
Downey was a hoot in Tropic Thunder but the film is not exactly prime Oscar material.
Brolin’s part in Milk was too small and subtle.
Shannon is lucky to have even been nominated.
Oscar night will be a bright night for Ledger’s fans. It’s the one thing you can count on this year.