What’s most fun about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s decision to run for governor of California is how all the political experts were dead wrong. Now, granted Arnold tried to throw them off track by sending misleading messages through his agents.
But, we love it when the experts are wrong. It confirms our belief, supported by some pretty solid evidence, that our instincts are often just as good as predictions from experts.
A professor from Harvard used to start his statistics class by presenting a big jar full of hundreds of jellybeans. He’d ask the five smartest mathematicians to guess how many jellybeans were in the jar. Then, he’d ask the whole class of 200 to make their guesses. The average guess of the whole class was always much closer to the mark than the guess from any of the math wizards. The experts aren’t always wrong. But neither are your instincts.
And that’s the Asman Observer.
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