Our panelists give you the scoop on all the inside business information before you hear it anywhere else in The Informer segment:
Elizabeth MacDonald, senior editor: Too many wrinkles in Botox stock Allergan (AGN). Allergan makes Botox and is using a nifty RND cost effective masquerade. It's an off balance shell unit to protect their bottom line. The shell basically covers the cost of RND.
David Asman: There's a lot of terms you've used there. Bottom-line, if you have a successful product, shouldn't you have a successful company?
Elizabeth MacDonald, senior editor: They're now incurring their RND costs and instead, they're using these off balance sheet shells to cover these costs to protect their bottom-line.
Bill Baldwin, Editor: I think Elizabeth is getting upset over a couple of cents of earnings and I think she should be getting upset over it. Somebody who's going to puff for $.02 is someday going to puff for $2.00.
Elizabeth MacDonald, senior editor: It's not $.02 though. It's $.45 a share in the year 2000. It's about $.09 a share for fourth quarter 2001. Even $.03 getting knocked off an EPS can really tank a stock.
David Asman: Okay let's move on to Dennis Kneale. The cover story of Forbes has a picture of Colin Powell's son on it. Why?
Dennis Kneale, managing editor: Powell Power! FCC Head rings up Baby Bell Stocks as FCC Chairman, Michael K. Powell may hold the key to a turnaround in Tech. He oversees a trillion dollar in revenues in the various industries. His idea to get tech back is to get the FCC the heck out of the way. It's been holding the market back. Companies like Verizon (VZ) and SBC Communications (SBC) will benefit from this because caps will come off and will allow them to buy off a bunch of other small players.
David Asman: But it's not just him alone, right? Congress has to approve it. Will Congress go for deregulation?
Bruce Upbin, senior editor: He is a lawyer but I don't know if he has the sway to tell the people in Congress what to do.
Dennis Kneale, managing editor: Congress isn't a problem because the courts are deciding those rules.
David Asman: Okay Bruce let's keep it in the communication business. You've got a neat little gadget.
Bruce Upbin, senior editor: Motorola's (MOT) cool new phone won't help stock. I've got the new Motorola V70 from a company that's not generally known for stylish gear. It's a $400 phone so most people won't be able to afford it. Their phones make up only a 1/3 of their sales and profits of their company. The rest of the company is already in trouble with chips and networking and this phone isn't going to help this stock.
Bill Baldwin, Editor: That's the most lukewarm endorsement I've ever heard. I'd like to make a claim for a mail order firm. Sigma Aldrich (SIAL) sells mail order chemicals, mostly to scientists. Treatments now are becoming more scientific and molecular. Someday we're going to have doctors doing elaborate blood tests and custom designing drugs.
David Asman: So this is a decentralization of the medical system.
Bill Baldwin, Editor: It's not just that, it's exotic biotech. Eventually all cancer treatments will be customized.
Elizabeth MacDonald, senior editor: This stock is at 45 times earnings and revenues are up. I would buy it.
Makers and Breakers
Krispy Kreme (KKD)
Bernie Schaeffer, Schaeffer's Investment Research: MAKER
Krispy Kreme is the stock they love to hate and it's been bawling over its critics ever since it IPO'ed a few years ago. It's had 87% earning growth in most recent quarters, 80% the prior quarter. It has outperformed the S&P three fold for the last year. What I really love, as a contrarian, is there's 9 plus million shares in short interest. Short covering helps the rallies.
Jim Michaels, editorial vice president: BREAKER
I got a weakness for the donuts but the stock makes me gag. It's at 75 times earnings for a company who's earnings growth is about to hit the wall when they saturate the market, and they're close to doing that.
Bill Baldwin, editor: BREAKER
Does anybody remember, "This Can't Be Yogurt?" It was a great food fat stock in the eighties that kind of died out. I think it's just a fad. People will get sick of it and the lines will shorten.
Bernie Schaeffer, Schaeffer's Investment Research: Krispy Kreme has been around since 1936. It just recently went public. As far as the P.E. is concerned, it's got a market cap of $2 billion. It's not in a lot of states so I disagree that it's saturated. If you want to pay $10 billion for Lucent or Nortel or $2 billion for Krispy, I'll go with Krispy.
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Bernie Schaeffer, Schaeffer's Investment Research: MAKER
I think investors should have 10-15% of their portfolio in gold. Newmont Mining is a good stock to have. Even with all the risks to the economy and the risks to the global environment, the gold sector has been the top performer for the past 2 years. But there's still a lot of skepticism out there on gold.
Bill Baldwin, editor: MAKER
This company is a maker for sure. Newmont Mining is coming under the influence of some very sharp characters who used to run Franco Nevada Mining. They made huge pots of money for shareholders at a time when gold prices were going down.
Jim Michaels, editorial vice president: BREAKER
I don't go for the glamour of gold. It's at 50 times earnings. It needs all its cash flow to replace reserves.
Get all the stories you need-to-know from the most powerful name in news delivered first thing every morning to your inbox