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BEDFORD, N.H. — "When you get to the serious part of this," Jeb Bush says, standing in the home of a supporter, surrounded by Republican voters, "I think you're looking at the guy who's gonna be the nominee."

It's understated, but that's Bush's proposed path to victory in a nutshell.

Jeb's line Wednesday night echoed the argument his supporters made to me around the state: Republican voters tend to nominate the establishment guy — the boring, staid, responsible grown-up. This explains George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney. Jeb Bush seems to fit nicely into this lineup.

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