Fold up the tent, collect the signs, and don’t even bother printing ballots -- because there's no reason to have a democratic primary. Haven't you heard? It's over. Locked up. Hillary Clinton will be the next Democratic candidate for president and likely the next leader of the free world.
That's if she wants it, of course, which is totally up to her. But then again, maybe not. You see, she is so amazing that she could probably could get away with not running at all--and yet somehow she'd still win the coveted top spot on the ticket. Why? Because she's that amazing.
Or at least that’s how most of the media (who seem to be devoted fans) tell it, so it must be true. They watched her this past weekend on 60 Minutes alongside the president hitting softball after softball out of the park, just as easily as the questions fluttered from Steve Croft's lips. The president was there to seemingly crown her as the standard bearer, perhaps returning her 2008 favor to him.
And so the media seems to have collectively come to the only reasonable conclusion that any cheerleader/contemporary journalist can reach: "The job is hers and no one better get in her way." Did you hear that Vice President Biden? Who do you think you are anyway?
When faced with this level of fanaticism, it's hard to win an argument, but let's at least try a reality check. I begin with the obvious, which is that the decision is still three and half years away and the most we can say about Hillary Clinton is that (1) she doesn't want the job and (2), as a presidential candidate, she makes a good former Secretary of State.
What does one have to do with the other? Historically, not that much. Just ask Al, "I'm in control here" Haig who may have been the most vocal Secretary of State who wanted the big job really badly, but never got it.
In fact, it's been a while since a Secretary of State became President--166 years to be exact. That's the last time a Secretary of State became President. It was James Buchanan. The five others all came before him: Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, and Martin Van Buren.
Historically, Biden actually has a better shot at becoming president because a total of fourteen VP's got to be commanders in chief and the last two were relatively recent. They were Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush.
However, if Mrs. Clinton really wanted to increase her chances, she'd run for Governor of New York or Arkansas and win before running for president. Why? Because a whopping 17 presidents previously served as state Governors.
Now let's come back to common sense-ville. Does it really matter what position she held, or what the numbers say historically? Probably not.
What does matter is the type of person she exemplifies as a candidate, what her vision is for the country and whether people think she's capable of carrying it out. And frankly, her last performance was not so good. She did, after all, lose to a freshman senator who no one had ever heard of--yet another example of a runaway media love affair.
Ultimately, what matters is what the people of the US have to say about this. Because last time I checked, they seem to have a better track record than the media or party establishment.
Just ask the Republicans who allowed their establishment to anoint their "obvious" choices--the guys who were "next in line" for the party thrown. All three, Dole, McCain and now Romney—lost.
And so if Hillary Clinton does ultimately decide to run, she'll have to depend on more than just big hugs from the president and love letters from the media. It will take solid ideas, an articulated vision, and the ability to prove she's the best person for the job. And that will take a lot longer than 60 minutes.