This is a rush transcript of "Special Report With Brit Hume" from November 6, 2007. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And the people in South Carolina, like across America, are not going to select their candidate based on what church they go to, but by they are going to care very deeply about what values they have.
RUDY GIULIANI, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have a long, long history and a long record way before September 11. I think it is that record, that background, that is the reason why I would be a good president. I have had more experience.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRIT HUME, HOST: So why did we choose to show you those two guys tonight? I will tell you in a minute, but, first, let me introduce our panel — Fred Barnes, executive editor of The Weekly Standard, Mort Kondrake, executive editor of Roll Call, and Bill Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard -- FOX News contributors all.
Our colleague Mr. Barnes here wrote an article in The Weekly Standard just the other day that said that when you get down to it and look at it with care, the Republican race is now a two man affair between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.
And the next thing you know, mitt Romney is moving up in South Carolina, which means that he now leads, or is close to leading, in all three of the early states. Fred, what about this?
FRED BARNES, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, WEEKLY STANDARD: It's the impact of my piece.
HUME: Yes, exactly.
BARNES: Romney is scooting up.
These two, Giuliani and Romney, are the only ones that have realistic scenarios for actually winning the nomination. You have to do well in the early primaries, in Iowa and New Hampshire. And then what is after New Hampshire?
HUME: Super Tuesday.
FRED BARNES, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, WEEKLY STANDARD: Well, you have Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, and then Super Tuesday. They're the only ones that I think realistically have a scenario—
HUME: And the reason is that if somebody else were to win one of those early states that, that person, whoever it is among the rest of the field, whether it be Thompson or anybody else, lacks the organization to capitalize?
BARNES: They lack the organization, they lack the money, in particular, because you wouldn't have time to raise a bundle before getting to Florida on January 29, and then all those primaries on February 5. They really would lack that serious base.
What would happen is what happened to John McCain in 2000 running against George W. Bush. He won in New Hampshire, and then couldn't do much with it. He won in Michigan, where independents could also vote, but after that he petered out. He didn't have the money, didn't have the base of support, didn't have, among Republicans, the organization.
HUME: Two man race, Mort?
MORT KONDRAKE, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, ROLL CALL: I agree with Fred's analysis. McCain has to make it in New Hampshire, after which, as Fred said, he's short on money. Huckabee is putting all his bets on Iowa. And Thompson is, basically, putting all his bets on South Carolina.
HUME: But if Huckabee won Iowa, your view is that he couldn't capitalize?
KONDRACKE: I don't think he can capitalize on it. There would be a certain surge in his popularity, and people would get interested.
And then what happens on February 5, where he doesn't, presumably, have the money that Romney would have.
HUME: Because you need a national advertising campaign.
KONDRACKE: Right. And there is a question of whether Giuliani even has the money to follow through on his strategy. He had had $12 million at the end of the September, and Romney has unlimited supplies of his own cash
And Romney is leading in all these early states, and Giuliani has been hoping that he would catch Romney by winning later states, starting with Florida. So whether Giuliani can fulfill that strategy is open to question.
HUME: Bill?
BILL KRISTOL, EDITOR OF THE WEEKLY STANDARD: I totally disagree. I think it is a genuine five-way race.
Fred says you can't write a credible scenario for McCain, Huckabee, or Thompson. I think I could write a credible scenario for any of them.
Let's just take New Hampshire. Say McCain went to Iowa and gave an anti-ethanol subsidy speech. I think he is going to write off Iowa, hope that Iowa fragments off into a four-way, 22, 20, 18, 15 result, which is entirely possible — no big winner.
He is in New Hampshire, that's where he has won before. If McCain wins New Hampshire, how much is it worth? How much paid money do you need if John McCain comes back, wins New Hampshire? The next primary is Michigan. McCain beat Bush in Michigan last time.
McCain could win. Fred Thompson could win or run second in Iowa. And Huckabee, if wins Iowa, is competitive.
HUME: Romney has built himself up in those early states in no small measure because of huge advertising buys. Rudy Giuliani, to my knowledge, has not spent a dime on a single ad, and yet he is where he is.
You say he may lack the money, Mort, but what difference will it make in this race, in your judgment, if Rudy Giuliani goes up on the air everywhere? How much difference will that make to him?
He has never had to do any of it. Look at where he is.
KONDRACKE: That's true, and New Hampshire is the place that he would, presumably, do it. He is only eight points behind at the moment.
HUME: What effect, do you think?
KONDRACKE: It could have a big effect. Romney's appeal has largely been bought with television ads.
HUME: Fred?
BARNES: The only thing about Giuliani is you don't know if he has hit the ceiling in Republican support. But obviously ads would help.
HUME: It's quite an achievement to hit the ceiling without taking out a single ad.
BARNES: It is possible. I think ads would probably help him some. And no doubt he will run some ads, probably, in New Hampshire. He has some radio ads, I think, in Iowa, but not TV ads.
KRISTOL: Ron Paul raised $4 million in one day yesterday or the day before yesterday.
HUME: Yesterday and overnight, yes.
KRISTOL: I think Fred makes the correct case if you have to have a lot of money ahead of time.
My view is if you can win Iowa or New Hampshire, the money will flood in. The earned media, the free media will be divisive. The idea that anyone has enough money to put TV ads up in Florida, California, and New Jersey, no one can do that. So it is a free campaign at that point.
McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee are all capable candidates. I think it is a genuine five-way race.
HUME: When we come back with our panel, Hillary Clinton comes under fire for being secretive. Why is the release of some sought after documents moving at what seems to be a glacial pace? Stay tuned.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Would you lift that ban?
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: That's not my decision to make, and I don't believe that any president or first lady ever has. But, certainly, we'll move as quickly as our circumstances and the processes in the National Archives permits.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUME: What she is talking about, Hillary Clinton, and what Tim Russert was asking her about in that Democratic debate from last week was whether the documents pertinent to her advice to then President Clinton during his term in White House that is stored at the Clinton Presidential Library in Arkansas would be made available prior to the election.
And you heard her say what she said. The "ban" that Russert was talking about is contained in a letter that Bill Clinton wrote to the National Archives about five years ago in which it said, among other things
"Information should generally be considered for withholding only if it is communications directly between the president and first lady and their families, unless routine in nature."
I'm not sure that is a complete ban, and the Clinton team says, no, no, that's not a ban, this is all happening as fast as it can.
Now we learn today that documents written by Diane Blair, who was an assistant in the White House, pertinent to Mrs. Clinton's time as first lady is also not going to be available, although the library at the University of Arkansas has said in the past that it had been all collected, collated, and was ready to be seen.
So what to make of this?
KONDRACKE: Well, if the Clintons really wanted to have documents out, if it showed that Hillary Clinton had the formula for saving the world, and advised Bill Clinton how to do it, that would be out, you can be sure, in a minute.
There is stuff—they probably don't even know what is there in a lot of cases, and they don't want people fishing around in the documents.
But the narrow channel here is one Bruce Lindsay, former White House aide and long-time factotum of the Clinton family, who is the one who has to sign off on the release of documents. He is the stopgap here, the narrow end of the funnel, and he is not doing this full-time down at the Clinton library. He has got other things to do, and so it is flowing out at a very slow pace.
But if the Clintons wanted to open that, Bill Clinton could have a whole team of people working on the documents.
BARNES: You know what they say about Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox left- fielder, when he does something craze, "that is just Manny being Manny"? This is the Clintons being Clintons. This is who they are. They're secretive.
Mort, you say they probably don't know what's there. They know exactly what is there. They're the ones that wrote these memos. They know exactly what's there.
President Clinton, he could go down to that library at University of Arkansas, or he could go to the archives tomorrow and tell them get these documents out. I withdraw what I said in that letter in November.
HUME: Do you think that letter really is a ban?
BARNES: It sure sounds that way to me. It singles out the communication between the president and the first lady.
HUME: To be considered to withhold?
BARNES: Yes—"I think it better be considered, or you guys will be in a lot of trouble with me" is what that says.
Bruce Lindsay is not the problem, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton are the problem.
KRISTOL: I am struck that both Mort and Fred keep referring to "the Clintons." I think that is a problem for Hillary Clinton. I mean, are we voting for Hillary Clinton to be president of the United States, or are we voting for the Clintons to come back to the White House?
And to the degree that she wants to use his appeal to Democratic primary voters, who is campaigning for her in Iowa—
HUME: And her role in his administration.
KRISTOL: Right. She talks about that, her experience. What is the experience claim based on? It is not based on the six years as a Senator in New York. It is based on her role in the White House.
He's campaigning for her later this week in Iowa. It is a double edged sword. I know he is popular, I know Democrats, at least, think he was a good president, but the idea of the restoration of the Clintons, I think, is very problematic.
HUME: Clearly, that's not been directly talked to. She makes useful reference to it. How do you think it cuts?
KRISTOL: I think on the surface it's good, and underneath it's bad.
If this is a change election, why do you want to go back to having the Clintons in the White House, especially after all the issues that that raises.
I think Obama has a chance. I'm keeping hope alive for Obama. And it think in a general election, if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, it helps the Republican nominee.
The Republican, ironically, after eight years of Republican administration, will be more of an embodiment of change than Hillary Clinton.
KONDRACKE: She will say "I am going to be the president. I will take his advice. I will consider all the good things that went on. I will listen to him."
HUME: So you think it is a net plus?
KONDRACKE: I think it is a positive net plus.
HUME: What do you think, Fred?
BARNES: Mort, he will be moving in to the White House with her. So she's not going to push him aside. Nobody's going to believe that, even when you tell them that, Mort.
HUME: That's all from the panel, but stay tuned to see whether Hillary Clinton will be able to just waltz her way to the Democratic nomination.
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