By , D.J. Foster
Published January 31, 2017
Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.
To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.
Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.
Week 10 in Review
If you trusted our NFL simulation engine over Las Vegas, you had a nice week. We went 4-0 in upset picks in a crazy week where solely picking Vegas favorites would have netted you a 4-10 record. Our engine went 8-6 straight up (57.1 percent) and 7-4 (63.6 percent) against the spread while also correctly picking the Game of the Week, Lock Pick and Upset Pick of the Week.
Nailed It: Texans 24 - Jaguars 21. We predicted the Texans to win a whopping 68.9 percent of the time by an average score of 27-21. It should also be noted that Vegas had the Jags favored by 2 in this game.
Wide Right: Eagles 24 - Falcons 15. Our engine didn't see the Falcons struggling this much offensively, as we predicted Atlanta to win 66.3 percent of the time by an average score of 24-19.
Week 11 Game to Watch
Eagles at Seahawks: The Seahawks are suddenly rolling under Russell Wilson, but the Eagles badly need a win to stay alive in a tough NFC East. Ultimately, our engine thinks a rookie quarterback on the road in Seattle is a recipe for disaster. We have the Seahawks winning this one 61.9 percent of the time by an average score of 24-18.
Week 11 Against the Spread Pick
Titans (+3) over Colts: Marcus Mariota has been on absolute fire as of late, and the Titans defense is causing havoc as well. The Colts may have home field working in their favor, but our engine has the Titans pulling off the upset 59.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26-23.
Fantasy Start -- Alex Smith, KC: If you're needing to stream a QB this week, Smith is a sneaky good option against a Tampa Bay team that has been prone to getting into shootouts all year. We have Smith projected to be the sixth highest scoring QB of Week 11.
Fantasy Sit -- James Starks, GB: After surprisingly playing a lot in Week 10 coming off knee surgery, Starks should see a healthy workload against a Washington defense that's very vulnerable to the run. We have Starks scoring 10.5 points, making him a high-end RB2 this week.
Fantasy Add -- Randall Cobb, GB: There is just too many mouths to feed in Green Bay these days, and our engine has Cobb being the odd man out in Week 11. Cobb has just six receptions over his last two games.
For more fantasy football tips, view our Week 11 player projections.
NFL Week 11 Predictions
|Matchup||Win %||Avg. Score|
|Chicago Bears||19.3||19||Box Score|
|@ New York Giants||80.7||29||Simulate Game|
|Philadelphia Eagles||38.1||18||Box Score|
|@ Seattle Seahawks||61.9||24||Simulate Game|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||38.5||20||Box Score|
|@ Kansas City Chiefs||61.5||25||Simulate Game|
|Green Bay Packers||38.9||20||Box Score|
|@ Washington Redskins||61.1||23||Simulate Game|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||39.3||24||Box Score|
|@ Detroit Lions||60.7||27||Simulate Game|
|Buffalo Bills||42.2||22||Box Score|
|@ Cincinnati Bengals||57.8||25||Simulate Game|
|Houston Texans||43.0||21||Box Score|
|@ Oakland Raiders||57.0||23||Simulate Game|
|Baltimore Ravens||44.7||21||Box Score|
|@ Dallas Cowboys||55.3||23||Simulate Game|
|New Orleans Saints||47.1||25||Box Score|
|@ Carolina Panthers||52.9||26||Simulate Game|
|Arizona Cardinals||55.3||25||Box Score|
|@ Minnesota Vikings||44.7||23||Simulate Game|
|Tennessee Titans||59.5||26||Box Score|
|@ Indianapolis Colts||40.5||23||Simulate Game|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||62.5||29||Box Score|
|@ Cleveland Browns||37.5||25||Simulate Game|
|Miami Dolphins||63.5||23||Box Score|
|@ Los Angeles Rams||36.5||18||Simulate Game|
|New England Patriots||86.0||32||Box Score|
|@ San Francisco 49ers||14.0||19||Simulate Game|