By ,
Published September 29, 2015
In their victory over division rival Philadelphia, the Cowboys suffered a setback with Tony Romo's collarbone injury. The quarterback won't need surgery, but he'll be sidelined for an estimated two months. Coupled with Dez Bryant's broken foot, have the Cowboys' playoff hopes already been sunk just two weeks into the season?
We turned to WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine to find out. First, we simulated the remainder of the Cowboys' season with a healthy Romo at the helm and Bryant returning in Week 10. We played every game 501 times to generate a winning percentage and average score for each matchup. Dallas fans, this one might be a bit painful:
Tony Romo at Quarterback | |||
---|---|---|---|
Week | Opponent | Win % | Avg. Score |
3 | Atlanta | 58.0 | 27-24 |
4 | @ New Orleans | 64.2 | 25-21 |
5 | New England | 40.3 | 20-22 |
7 | @ New York Giants | 60.3 | 25-21 |
8 | Seattle | 51.7 | 22-21 |
9 | Philadelphia | 48.9 | 22-23 |
10 | @ Tampa Bay | 82.1 | 29-16 |
11 | @ Miami | 58.4 | 24-21 |
12 | Carolina | 77.4 | 27-18 |
13 | @ Washington | 77.0 | 29-19 |
14 | @ Green Bay | 43.4 | 22-24 |
15 | New York Jets | 70.2 | 24-17 |
16 | @ Buffalo | 53.1 | 23-21 |
17 | Washington | 78.2 | 28-19 |
With Romo at 100 percent, the Cowboys are favored against all but three opponents in 2015: New England, Philadelphia and Green Bay. Dallas could realistically target a 13-3 record, although at home against Seattle (51.7 percent likelihood to win) and on the road at Buffalo (53.1 percent) are no guarantees.
Without Romo, things get a little dicey. We benched Romo for the Cowboys' next eight contests, subbing in Brandon Weeden and - per Texas Governor Greg Abbott's suggestion - Tim Tebow:
Brandon Weeden at Quarterback | |||
---|---|---|---|
Week | Opponent | Win % | Avg. Score |
3 | Atlanta | 42.9 | 23-25 |
4 | @ New Orleans | 60.7 | 24-20 |
5 | New England | 35.0 | 18-23 |
7 | @ New York Giants | 56.8 | 26-22 |
8 | Seattle | 38.4 | 18-23 |
9 | Philadelphia | 43.6 | 21-23 |
10 | @ Tampa Bay | 73.9 | 27-18 |
11 | @ Miami | 47.7 | 22-23 |
Tim Tebow at Quarterback | |||
---|---|---|---|
Week | Opponent | Win % | Avg. Score |
3 | Atlanta | 41.3 | 23-26 |
4 | @ New Orleans | 47.7 | 21-22 |
5 | New England | 23.6 | 16-24 |
7 | @ New York Giants | 49.3 | 22-23 |
8 | Seattle | 30.9 | 17-23 |
9 | Philadelphia | 35.9 | 19-25 |
10 | @ Tampa Bay | 64.5 | 25-19 |
11 | @ Miami | 45.4 | 20-22 |
When Weeden is calling the shots, Dallas is favored in three of the next eight contests. We predict the Cowboys to fall to Atlanta this weekend, but like their chances against the Saints, Giants and Buccaneers. If the Cowboys are 5-5 when Romo returns in Week 12, we think the team can win five of their remaining six games for a 10-6 record that should earn Dallas a playoff berth.
However, if Dallas signs Tebow and gives him the nod over Weeden for the next eight games, we predict a 1-7 record for the Cowboys during Romo's absence. Tebow's only win would come at Tampa Bay, according to the simulation. If Dallas is 3-7 upon Romo's return, the team's playoff outlook will be bleak, to say the least.
So there you have it. Dallas should stick with Weeden and the governor should stick to politics.
Simulate a matchup between any two teams in NFL history using WhatIfSports.com's NFL SimMatchup, or build your own Dream Team roster.
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/how-would-the-cowboys-fare-with-tim-tebow-at-quarterback