2025 CFP First-Round Picks: Back Ducks to Roll

Published December 19, 2025

With the first round of the College Playoff kicking off, I know fans are more interested in the marquee matchups of Miami-Texas A&M and Alabama-Oklahoma.

Don't get me wrong — I'm into those games, too.

However, there's a lopsided matchup that I think everyone should have an eye on and maybe even set aside a few bucks for a wager.

Here's what I'm backing in the first round of the 2025 CFP.

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No. 12 James Madison @ No. 5 Oregon

I feel like this handicap is simple for me: All 22 of Oregon’s starters will be the best players James Madison has seen the entire season.

With that in mind, the Dukes do deserve to be here. They’ve had a fantastic season and won the Sun Belt Championship after running the table in conference play. They're led by their defense, which is eighth in points per drive and first in success rate.

I’m having a difficult time trying to understand what these numbers mean against Oregon because JMU has yet to play an offense like the Ducks.

On the flip side is the Oregon defense, which is sixth in yards per play and 10th in points per drive. It’s a defense that’s outstanding at limiting explosive plays, which is what James Madison’s offense is. The Dukes have a ton of plays that are not successful, but then running back Wayne Knight will have a 50-yard rushing touchdown.

Because of that, JMU is routinely in third-and-long situations (48%) which is less than ideal against an Oregon pass defense that just doesn’t allow many yards.

I think there’s a narrative that Oregon doesn’t play well in these games since the Ducks struggled with Idaho in the first game of the 2024 season. The good news is we have a season full of data from 2025 to show that they have dominated games this year as favorites of three touchdowns or more.

Oregon covered against Montana State (-29.5), Oklahoma State (-28.5), Oregon State (-33.5), Rutgers (-18) and Minnesota (-26.5). The Ducks failed to cover 24.5 against Northwestern after NW scored two late touchdowns after being down 34-0. Oregon also failed to cover against Wisconsin in a monsoon and with Dante Moore leaving just after halftime.

I like Oregon to cover 20.5

PICK: Oregon (-20.5) to win by more than 20.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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