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Honduras, A Bottomless Pit

Mon, 09 Sep 2013 11:29:06 -0400

Former president Mr. Mel Zelaya conspired against the institutions and tried to impose a Constitutional change just to allow him to run for the presidency again. Nevertheless, the country turned the page and they will have a general election on November 24, 2013.

Since his election on November 2009, President Porfirio Lobo wasted two of the four-year presidential term trying to gain international support. By then, it was too late for to attack Honduras’ endemic problems including violence, a bad education system, a health system crisis, a lack of job opportunities, inefficiency, corruption, and insecurity/crime, critical environment.

In this critical environment, populists like Zelaya find the perfect condition for their destruction of the democratic system. Mr. Zelaya created his own political party, “Libre”, and since the Constitution blocked him from running for the presidency, he promoted his wife Xiomara Castro de Zelaya as the candidate for the next election. The majority of Honduras population is showing that they gave up on political parties and the system and they are willing to vote in favor of the Anti-System, represented by Mrs. Zelaya on the “left” and the TV presenter Salvador Nasralla on the “right”.

Xiomara does not have too much in terms of political experience or the background to rule the country. Her government plans include: Increase food production with government financial and technical assistance, Recover energetic and telecommunication sovereignty (return to government control), Immediate inclusion in the Bolivarian Initiative of the Americas (ALBA) and Petrocaribe (Venezuela’s funded authoritarian alliance of the Americas), Eliminate hunger in Honduras with solidarity projects, Promote the agricultural reform and promote the “solidary” state, Build a “solidarity” economic system, Develop a central housing and to regulate the rent and sale of properties according to government priorities, Pursue political sovereignty and Central American integration following the ideals of Simon Bolivar and Francisco Morazan.

Xiomara Castro de Zelaya and her party “Libre” have the same “state-socialist” propaganda than the rest of the Alba countries (Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Ecuador), but more than a decade of false socialism in those countries proved that the model doesn’t work. It is not the same progressive ideology or real socialism from other countries with a mixture of market approaches with social policies. It is just pure electoral populism. Like Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, and Rafael Correa, Xiomara’s first political action if she wins the presidency will be the Constitutional Assembly to reform the constitution under the excuse of promoting social changes. However, the truth is that, as their elected authoritarians friends, Mrs. Zelaya only want to change the constitution to allow her husband to run for the presidency, control power and weaken the institutions. The results will be the same: elected autocrats in Honduras. It is not true that “Libre” is a socialist party: it is just Zelaya’s party, a structure made for him. Libre is just a guarantee of the quick implementation of the same elected populist model.

The tragedy in this bizarre comedy is that Xiomara has been heading all the electoral polls this year with a solid 19% of the preferences, ahead of Jose Orlando Hernandez (National Party) by 3 perceptual points, Salvador Nasralla (anti-corruption party) by more than 5 points, and Mr. Mauricio Villeda (Liberal Party), by more than 13 points.

Only an alliance among the rest of the parties will prevent Xiomara from winning the election, but that is not an easy task. The political division in Honduras and political ambitions will prevent the rest of the candidates from creating an alliance. If Mr. Villeda and Mr. Hernandez create a single electoral option that alternative will not guarantee their triumph, but it will be the only viable alternative to prevent Mrs. Zelaya from winning. The alliance among democratic leaders, effective actions to reduce violence and crime in the following months and a national credible pact to improve the country situation will be a plus to prevent the upcoming crisis.

Honduras has the people, the land, and the posibilities to end the misery and develop a great nation. Honduras need good leadership to fight against corruption and develop good policies to attract bussiness and bring jobs to the more than 60 percent of its population who live in poverty. It needs a better education system, independent and efficient institutions, and good policies/strategies/actions to fight against crime and insecurity. It needs to develop a culture of democracy, human rights, and rule of law. Honduras needs a political change to begin to change the path of misery, and electing the wife of the same well-known autoritarian will not guarantee that change.

For the U.S. it will be another anti-U.S. country in the region and more instability as well as the increase of drug-trafficking from Honduras. For Venezuela and its illegal president, Mr. Nicolas Maduro, Mrs. Zelaya triumph will be his first international victory. For the Americas: another failed country in the hands of elected authoritarians. For Honduras, more misery and less freedom: a Chronicle of a Death Foretold.

Op-Ed: Venezuela's Coup Made in Cuba

Thu, 10 Jan 2013 11:01:26 -0500

Almost a month after his last public appearance and from his surgery to continue the treatment against an aggressive cancer, Hugo Chávez remains in intensive care in Cuba with multiple respiratory, abdominal and infectious complications.

Chávez never delegated power to his Vice President Nicolas Maduro, he only obtained a temporary permit to travel to Cuba, but he supposedly remained in total control of the presidency. Nobody knows the true extent of such delegation of duties or if Chávez is actually awake or has been in coma all this time.

The information provided by the regime has been more than contradictory. The only source of information has been the social media. If Chávez has been in a coma all this time, then we have been in the presence of people who usurped power and they have been running an illegal government.

Hugo Chávez was aware of the potential complications of this new surgery and he clearly said that in case he became unable to take oath on January 10th, or in case of his death, his chosen one to run for president was Nicolás Maduro.

And the Constitution in Venezuela is clear: the mandate began on January 10th, 2007 and ends January 10th, 2013, and if the elected president can’t take the oath that day the Assembly’s President assumes power temporarily and calls for new elections within a maximum of 30 days.

But for Cuba, which receives more than $10 billion a year plus other benefits from Venezuela, this is not acceptable. Fidel and Raúl Castro have been close friends and supporters of Chávez's regime for economic reasons. Thanks to Hugo Chávez and his fake revolution, the Cuban dictatorial regime has been able to survive this past decade. For Castro’s regime, the future of Chávez will also mark Cuba’s future.

The Castro brothers have become the conciliators and advisors of the two most powerful acolytes of Chávez as well as of some fractions from the military. Castro has been coordinating the meetings among Diosdado Cabello, the president of Venezuelan National Assembly, Vice President Maduro, Chávez’s family and some sectors of the military.

They also initiated an international lobby with Brazil and other countries to gather support for their plans on Venezuela. They have developed the thesis of the “continuation” of the government: for them the re-election of Chávez last October was just a confirmation or referendum of his regime, and for that reason he doesn’t need to be inaugurated or take the presidential oath.

Venezuela is far from been a democratic country. Hugo Chávez has been ruling the country in an authoritarian and abusive way, and the only quasi democratic side to it was that periodical general elections. Without those elections the country becomes a dictatorship. Neither Maduro nor Cabello were elected. Chávez transformed Venezuela in his big circus but now the clowns have taken control of the circus. We don't know if they are keeping Chavez artificially alive just to keep control of the country; only an independent medical board can determine his current condition.

The alternatives for Chávez’s cronies are five: 1) Accept the impossibility for Chávez to return to power and call for an election in 30 days. In this case they may have a good chance to win due to the Chávez’s influence and memory, as well as the drama that would surround such an election; 2) Reduce Chávez’s sedation and mobilize the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal to inaugurate the new term in Cuba; 3) Keep control of the government by force; 4) Convince some members of the opposition of a transition regime; 5) The unconstitutional an undemocratic interpretation of the Constitution that would allow them to give Chávez a special permit of 90 days, renewable, to delay the inauguration.

They need the time to consolidate their power without Chávez and to buy more time in control of the institutions and cash flow, so they can also project themselves as the continuation of Hugo Chávez revolution. They also need more time for the campaign and to create the image of a possible government without Chávez but with Chávez ideals.

For the opposition, an election in 30 days will be a major tragedy because they don’t have a clear candidate. Even though the “Mesa de Unidad” has been playing an extraordinary role creating a coordinated effort among numerous opposition groups and parties, their ideological differences and their mutual suspiciousness are still a great challenge.

Sadly, Venezuela will face a major political, economic, institutional and social crisis in the upcoming months. Several countries and groups will try to control the game, but now it is a Pandora box, anything can happen.

If the democratic opposition begins to change Cuba’s game and become more active in developing alternatives and implementing a democratic fight, as well as implementing some strategic planning, the game can change in favor of recovering democracy in Venezuela.

Carlos Ponce: The Summit of the Americas, Unfulfilled Promises

Thu, 12 Apr 2012 08:12:09 -0400

This Friday, April 13, 2012, is the official inauguration of the VI Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia. The Summit brings an opportunity for dialogue among governments and is the only regional forum that includes the United States and Canada. However, even with a major effort from Colombia’s government, it has been impossible to elevate the interest and relevance of the meeting. The results from this Summit of the Americas will be similar to the unfulfilled promises from Trinidad and Tobago in April 2009.

One of the fundamental factors behind the lack of importance of this particular Summit is that the Organization of American States (OAS) has been dramatically loosing regional relevance under the administration of Mr. Jose Miguel Insulza. Mr. Insulza never had the resume to be the OAS Secretary General. He was appointed in 2005 for two reasons. First, the chosen OAS Secretary General, former Costa Rican President Mr. Miguel Angel Rodríguez, was indicted in his own country with corruption charges. Second, Mr. Insulza was appointed because he tricked and betrayed the Mexican candidate, Mr. Luis Ernesto Derbez, when they reached an agreement to drop their candidacies to allow the OAS to elect a Secretary General approved by all the countries. Mr. Insulza never fulfilled his word. Therefore, when Mr. Derbez retired his candidacy, Insulza did not retire his own candidacy. As a result, he was the only remaining candidate.

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In 2010, Mr. Insulza was re-elected because nobody wanted the job. The terrible job Mr. Insulza did at the OAS prevented any former president from running against Insulza. In fact, there were more than 45 applications for the Executive Secretary’s position at the Inter American Human Rights Commission (IAHRC), a position inside the OAS, but only Insulza applied to the Secretary General role in March 2010. Mr. Insulza’s lack of respect in the left and the right impacted the OAS.

The worst Secretary General in the history of the OAS has been taking a high toll on the organization. It is impossible to have a different result. Mr. Insulza has been more focused on his ego, on helping his friends, and on his failed plan to become Chile’s president in the last election than on managing the organization. Recent statements from Venezuela’s OAS Ambassador, Roy Chaderton, clearly show the character of Mr. Insulza. Mr. Chaderton admitted that Venezuela and the Alba countries voted and lobbied for Mr. Insulza because he promised to get rid of Mr. Santiago Cantón, the IAHRC Executive Secretary, and debilitate the Commission. The only thing that works in the OAS and Insulza has been conspiring against that.

Now we can understand why Mr. Insulza allowed Mr. Hugo Chávez and his Alba friends to make a mockery from the OAS, we don’t know the rest off promises from Mr. Insulza to other countries.

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Mr. Insulza took advantage of the OAS during his failed plans to become Chile’s president and it now looks like he will do the same during his plan to run for a Senate seat in his home country Chile next year. He will use his time and the resources from the organization to support his candidacy. Since the United States, Brazil, Mexico, and Canada are the major contributors to the OAS, we can say that Mr. Insulza will use our taxes to pay for his campaign in Chile. I believe that the U.S. must say “No” and ask for his resignation. If Insulza wants to run for Congress in Chile, he must move to Chile and stop using the OAS as his own structure.

Back to the Summit, the OAS is not the only organization to blame for the failure of the Summits. So far, there is no effective implementation or follow-up of all the mandates, documents, and promises from the previous Summits. The commitments from the presidents and governments usually end on the last day of the Summits. Therefore, in terms of expectations, nothing new will come from the meeting in Cartagena.

This year, the dangerous clowns from the Alba countries tried a boycott to force the invitation of Cuba but they failed. Ecuador’s “president” has already said that he will not participate, in a reaction similar to the one that took Mr. Hugo Chávez from Venezuela. However, for sure they plan a show for this week.

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As a novelty, some years ago the governments invited civil society organizations to attend. However, since then, leaders from civil societies have been invited to a meeting days before the Summit that has no relevance on the process. For this Summit, some of the preliminary meetings for “social actors,” private sectors, parliamentarians, and unions will begin on Wednesday while the meeting among government delegations and presidents will not begin until Friday night.

The Summits need a change as well as the OAS. The OAS needs a new Secretary General, a former ex president like Tabaré Vázquez, Lula Da Silva, Michelle Bachelet, Oscar Arias or Leonel Fernández. Even with the bizarre plans of Mr. Hugo Chávez to destroy the OAS with his phony organizations like the CELAC or his Alba and even with the lack of leadership from Mr. Insulza, the OAS has been surviving. A change of leadership is the first step to recover the organization. For the Summit, lack of leadership and lack of commitment turned this great initiative in just another meeting, governments need to create a effective space for the exchange of ideas and open the door for real dialogue. Global and regional problems like drug and violence cartels, environmental crises, among others, need also regional and global approaches and the Summit can be a tool for that.

At the last minute, some governments proposed a dialogue about drug and violence in the Americas. Some countries included a proposal to talk about legalizing drugs in their countries but a meeting of two days cannot solve this complex problem. In addition, legalization is not the panacea. Some countries want to talk about the Malvinas and some want to raise old phantoms but the main topics will remain out of the agenda.

Even with an extensive effort from Colombia’s government, it will be hard to change the odds and make this Summit a meaningful one that has an impact on the region.

Dr. Carlos Ponce is the elected general coordinator of the Latin American and Caribbean Network for Democracy, co-editor of the political magazine “Nueva Politica” and member of the Steering Committee of the World Movement for Democracy and the ISC of the Community of Democracies. Twitter: @ceponces. Blog: twolatinamericas.blogspot.com

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Carlos Ponce: Venezuela Election – Hope is in the Air

Mon, 13 Feb 2012 10:49:12 -0500

The impossible challenge for the Venezuelans to built a “Unitarian” opposition to Mr. Hugo Chávez it is not an utopian goal anymore. The totalitarian and authoritarian regime from Mr. Chávez finally has a young and active contender. More than 3 million votes in an opposition primary for the Democratic United Table (Mesa de Unidad Democracica) mean more than just numbers.

The challenge of organizing an effort to unify an opposition with hundreds of micro political parties and individual leaderships, an opposition that failed in the past with divisive approaches, was more than a success. The courage of Venezuelans voting in a election that will openly mark them as opposition, more in a country in which the government persecute the opposition, or the democratic showroom of people with courage it just inspirational.

In France, only 2 million people voted a recent Socialist Party primary in a country with more than 45 million people. The tendency in all the primaries is always less than 10 percent of the votes. In Venezuela, it was more than 16 percent. But Chávez has been manipulating the electoral register numbers from 6 million voters in 1999 when he began his dictatorship to more than 17 million in only 13 years.

In just two years in power, he changed the electoral database from 6 to 12 million, which is impossible. The last census numbers don’t match with the electoral database. Chávez controls all the institutions, including the electoral one, and has been wasting more than $1 billion in 13 years, so he is more than a typical president.

Chávez has been losing two elections in the road. The last one, he just changed the rules of distribution of electoral circuits one month before the election to avoid losing the parliament, but he lost the electoral vote.

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Chávez portrayed himself 20 years ago in his coup d’eta as an alternative to corruption and the past. Now Chávez represent the past in more than 13 years of corruption and destruction.

If we review the numbers from the last parliamentary/Congress election, the opposition defeated Chávez , and they obtained 6 million votes, now in a primary they got more than 3 million, which means that they obtained more than half of their electoral votes in a primary. If we do the math we are talking of more than 6 million voters against Chávez in a real electoral base of 11 million.

I had the opportunity to coordinate an international observer’s mission yesterday in the Venezuelan Primaries with observers from Colombia, Costa Rica, Spain, Nicaragua and the US, and for the first time we can say that this was the first free election in Venezuela in the last 12 years. Our mission, Latin American and Caribbean Network for Democracy, focused its effort in the most dangerous “CHavistas” neighborhood voting centers in Catia, 23 de Enero, Petare, El Valle and La Pastora, and we saw the beginning of the end of Chávez. People voted, even with open treats against their integrity and their jobs. People voted with hope and defeated fear.

The joint picture of six contenders in an election, that even with their differences decided to join forces with the winner, the same day of the election, it is a good one. The winner, Henrique Capriles, a young leader of only 40 years old, called to a united opposition with all the forces, and a country for all the people without colors or ideologies. New leaderships came to Venezuela, new generations against the same old Chávez.

Of course, the road ahead is not easy, with Chávez sick of power and controlling all the institutions, the fight will be an unbalanced one.

The Venezuelans need to keep the unity alive. They also need to build trust in the population in the possibility of a better future without Chávez, and the need for a change. Chávez will be using the money and power of being the last autocratic dinosaur in the region against Henrique Capriles and the united opposition. They will need to fight against the manipulation of the electoral database, the control of the electoral authority in the hand of Chávez and the violent contender. Millions of dollars and ultimate power in one hand trying to defeat the hope of a country trying get rid of the autocrat.

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The US and the international communities can play a fundamental role putting pressure on Chávez to accept international observers in the October 07 presidential election. But it is not only the need for electoral observers; they need well-prepared and technical observers to travel to Venezuela in advance of the election to monitor the entire electoral process. They need to have as heads of international electoral missions former head of states like former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso or Nobel Prize winner and former Costa Rican president Oscar Arias. They need a mission from the Organization of American States with real electoral technical teams, not the friends of the OAS Secretary General, Jose Miguel Insulza. The only possibility of an OAS electoral mission for Venezuela to be successful is to be independent from the manipulation of Insulza, and it needs a former head of state as chief of the mission. A mission like that will be able to support the negotiation effort if Chávez lost the presidential election as well as effectively monitor election fraud.

The US must avoid wasting U.S. taxpayer money funding another electoral mission with the inefficient and weak friends of Insulza, missions that only served to validate electoral fraud in the past. We need to have an open eye in Venezuela because Chávez has been proving that he is not democratic and he will be trying to persecute and terrorize the opposition as well as his followers to prevent losing power. It is time for true solidarity against the autocrats.

The bad news for Chávez is that he represents the past, an inefficient one, and now his people have a face in the other side to negotiate “golden bridges” to save themselves when the time came. Anyone in Chávez's structure now has a face to negotiate how to have a better country without Chávez.

If Capriles and his team, former candidates and the heads of the “Democratic United Table”, including its head Dr. Ramon Guillermo Aveledo or its international coordinator Dr. Ramon Jose Medina, keep their agenda, innovate, promise a country for all and overcome the challenges from Mr. Chávez, we can say that hope is in the air for Venezuelans, as well as for Cubans, Nicaraguans and Ecuadorians. Maybe we will see a “Latin American Spring” soon.

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Opinion: Brazil is an Imperialist Killing the OAS

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 14:04:49 -0500

Once the champion of regional integration and human rights, Brazil has been changing its foreign policy approaches and now it is the enemy of the Inter American Human Rights System and an active promoter of “non-intervention” in terms of democracy and human rights.

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff ordered a review of relations with the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) after the regional body issued interim measures to protect indigenous rights-tribes and asked the government to suspend construction of Brazil’s $17 billion Belo Monte dam last April. Since then Brazil joined forces with the autocrat from Venezuela, Mr. Hugo Chávez, to conspire against the Organization of American States (OAS) and also has been trying to control or eliminate the powers of the Inter American Human Rights Commission.

Recently the Brazil OAS Permanent Mission has been blackmailing the organization suspending the annual maintenance mandatory country quota trying to force the organization to a technical shutdown. The Brazilian Government debt is US $ 6.3 million, and they are willing to pay the quota if the OAS “behavior” changes in favor of the new empire of the Americas.

The majority of the governments have been paying their quotas with the exception of Brazil and Venezuela. The case of Venezuela is just more of the same buffoonery of Mr. Chávez. Venezuela has been actively promoting a new organization called CELAC (The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) to replace the OAS, excluding Canada and United States from the “new” organization, but a country with a debt of US $ 2.5 million to the OAS and with similar debts in all the international institutions it is not the strongest base for a new organization. The CELAC it is just another ineffective Presidential Club in the region with lot of discourses and lack of programs. If fact their “democratic” clause it is just a mechanism to protect presidents or autocrats in power, but it is not a mechanism to promote a defend democracy. An organization designed by Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua will be far from democratic and human rights/Civil rights will not be a priority.

The OAS lives one of its worst moments, broke with the worst General Secretary in its history and a week leadership in the region. In fact, the OAS only has US $ 50,000 in hand to cover all its December operations.

Even though I believe that Mr. Jose Miguel Insulza must quit, allowing the OAS to elect a better leader, and that the organization needs a major auditing to evaluate possible missuses and corruption inside the organization and a fundamental reform to be more efficient, the worst thing that we can do right now is to allow Brazil and Venezuela to get away with their plan to shut down the organization.

Killing the OAS will also kill the Inter American Human Right System leaving the region without institutions that actively protect human rights. There are several things that we can save from the OAS with innovation and with political will. The OAS needs a new responsible leadership but leaving the decision in the hands of the autocrats Rafael Correa, Hugo Chávez and Daniel Ortega or satisfying Brazil new imperial mode it is not a cleaver move.

Replacing the OAS with ALBA, CELAC or with any other mockery of an institution will not solve regional challenges.

Dr. Carlos Ponce is the elected general coordinator of the Latin American and Caribbean Network for Democracy, lecturer at Tufts University and member of the Steering Committee of the World Movement for Democracy and the ISC of the Community of Democracies. Twitter: @ceponces http://twolatinamericas.blogspot.com