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Expect Suns to come out strong in Game 2, but don't expect much from Dillon Brooks

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:13:58 -0400

In some series, you know the winner is predetermined.

Sure, injuries could change things, or maybe there is some sort of superhuman game that a guy has to at least give the other team a bit of hope. For the most part, though, you know who will win most playoff series. I'm not saying there won't ever be an upset. The Rockets have their backs against the wall, for example, even though they are facing a hobbling Lakers team. However, in the Suns vs. Thunder series, we know the Thunder are going to win, but are we betting on another blowout in Game 2?

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The Suns made it to the postseason in a season that most thought they would likely be on the outside looking in. Coming into the season, the expectations were significantly lower after they traded away Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal was no longer on the team. The days of pairing superstars with Devin Booker in a championship quest were over. Instead, they built a well-rounded, balanced team with a lot of good role players. This seems to be where Booker excels the most. It isn't that Booker struggled with Durant or any of his other teammates, but the depth they've enjoyed this year really wasn't there in the past few seasons.

The Suns rode that depth to a 45-37 record. Phoenix lost its first home Play-In game to the Trail Blazers, but made the Golden State Warriors dynasty perhaps come to a close with Steve Kerr potentially walking away. In Game 1 against the Thunder, the Suns looked very overmatched, losing by 35.

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Beating a team by 35 points is pretty much just what the Thunder do. Now, they don't win all of their games by a ton, but when the Thunder are locked in, they are going to score a lot and not let you score much at all. They have a team full of defenders.

Chet Holmgren can protect the rim if needed (as can Isaiah Hartenstein). Jalen Williams is great on the wing, Lou Dort takes on the tougher challenge most nights, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is adept at getting steals. That doesn't mention guys like Alex Caruso, who is one of the best defenders in the league coming in as their sixth man. The Thunder are unique because most teams don't play defense. Not only does Oklahoma City play defense, but they work together on offense. Sure, Gilgeous-Alexander loves to drive and play isolation basketball, but the team also averaged 28 assists per game this season, first in the league.

There are two things to watch in Game 2.

The first is to see how the Suns come out. When you lose a game by 35, you usually have a better effort in the second game. The first quarter is a good look for the Suns, and getting 5.5 points is a ton for one quarter. I'll take that. Before you rush to the window for the full game, though, be cautious.

Last season, the Thunder won Game 1 of the first round by 51, then beat the Grizzlies again by 19 the next game. That would cover the spread tonight. The second thing is villain Dillon Brooks running his mouth again. He said he wants to put Gilgeous-Alexander in isolation. The Thunder are a team that really seems to embrace playing together and rooting for each other. I expect them to do everything they can to lock down Brooks. Give me under 17.5 points for Brooks.

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Magic continue to be disrespected by sportsbooks

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:05:15 -0400

April and May are without a doubt some of the best times of the year for sports. With the NFL, we get some good playoff games, but those are usually only two days a week. October baseball has a magic feeling, but I personally feel like the three Wild Card teams have taken away from a bit of that.

With the NHL and NBA, we have almost nightly action for a few weeks, and the games are typically great. Tonight, we have two NBA games, and the first one is between the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons in Game 2.

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The Magic enter this one having already taken away home-court advantage from the first-seeded Pistons. I was not one of the people who thought Orlando would get swept, but I did believe the Pistons would be able to advance without too much trouble. In Game 1, the Magic never really struggled.

Keep in mind, this team lost to the 76ers in a road Play-In Game, then had to go home and beat a pesky Hornets team. The Hornets' game turned out laughable as they destroyed them. Beating the Pistons in Detroit was a bit of a shock, but to me, the bigger surprise is that they outscored Detroit in three of the four quarters. Paolo Banchero was fantastic in the game as usual, scoring 23 points and hauling in a team-high nine rebounds. All five starters scored 16 or more points. That's the key to the Magic's success - team contributions, and a dominant Banchero.

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The Pistons have probably seen that everyone thinks that the sky is falling for them. That's not quite the case. A lot of teams lose Game 1 and come back to win the series. It usually is a bit of a wake-up call. However, the bigger issue is that the Pistons shouldn't need a wake-up call. They have won nothing and are still growing as a team. They should've been hungry and looked to take the series lead immediately. Cade Cunningham was his usual brilliant self, scoring 39 points. However, just one other player on his team reached double digits in scoring. A lot of talking heads blamed this game on Jalen Duren. He only had eight points in 33 minutes. You do expect at least a double-double out of him if the Pistons want to battle.

Game 2 is often about adjustments.

You'll see the zig-zag theory quite a bit, but that's not always the case. For the Magic, you don't really think you need to make adjustments. They shot almost 50% from the floor, but they only hit about 30% of threes. Their defense held the Pistons to just 101 points and 40% shooting. This game will be more about controlling the glass and getting the team involved for Detroit. The problem is that this is not a great matchup for the Pistons.

Suggs is a capable defender (even if Cade scored almost 40 on him). Wendell Carter Jr. is a decent defender on Duren. Desmond Bane and Franz Wagner are just better players than what the Pistons have. Give me the Magic +8.5 here. I do think Detroit wins, but the points offered are disrespectful to the Magic. I also like Duren to get a double-double, but at -188 isn't worth playing.

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Brewers-Tigers matchup features a sharp under 4.5 runs through five innings bet

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:02:10 -0400

With the NBA and NHL playoffs going on, it is easy to forget that the baseball season is here.

I don't know about you, but I try to pay attention to everything as a sports bettor. You kind of have to if you're going to find angles. This is also a good time because there can be some soft lines due to the books focusing on other things, like the NFL Draft and the Playoffs. I think I've found a spot for us to take advantage of as the Milwaukee Brewers take on the Detroit Tigers in the second game of a three-game set.

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The Brewers come into this game with a winning record at 13-9. I don't know that we should consider that much of a surprise, given the fact that the team has basically been a winner for years now. Even when they lose big names or key players, the team finds a way to win.

Actually, the most shocking thing about this season so far isn't that the Brewers have a winning record; it is that they are currently in 4th place of the division, as every team has a winning record in the National League Central. It won't stay that way, but it is kind of cool to see. Probably not if you're a Brewers fan, or a fan of any of the NL Central teams for that matter. Today they send out Chad Patrick to the hill to try and keep their winning ways. Patrick has been awesome so far, throwing to a 0.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 19 innings.

The biggest concern, if you're a Brewers fan, is that Patrick has been inconsistent with the number of innings pitched. He has gone 4.1, 5, 3, and 6.2. The most pitches he has thrown this season is 86. I assume they are just being cautious with him, but I'm not quite sure. He hasn't faced the Tigers' hitters before, so he might have a small edge going into this game. However, teams actually hit him better the first time through the order than the second or third. There really isn't a ton of data to support the theory either way, though.

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Coming into the year, the American League Central was pretty much a three-horse race, with most people gravitating to the Tigers winning the division.

They had an epic collapse last year to the Guardians, but still beat Cleveland in the playoffs, and fell just short against the Mariners. Detroit decided to go out and get Framber Valdez to bolster their rotation, but the bigger issue, at least to me, was their hitting. I assume they decided they were just going to try to pick someone up during the season.

Perhaps they don't really need it. The team is hitting .246 overall with 104 runs scored for the year. That averages out to 4.33 runs per game, which is a solid amount. It hasn't put them as a winning team, though, as they are just 12-12 coming into this game. The Tigers have been great in Detroit with an 8-2 mark. Tonight, they put Casey Mize on the rubber. Mize has been strong for the Tigers with a 1-1 record, a 2.78 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP.

Although it is just one start, his lone home outing was solid, going 5.2 innings and allowing just one earned run. Brewers hitters haven't found Mize hard to hit. Overall, they are 7-for-24 against him, but none of those hits have gone for extra bases.

As often as possible, I try to cut the MLB games shorter. I usually find the most success when I focus on starting pitching and try to predict what will happen from there. In this game, I love the under 4.5 runs through five innings. You have two strong hurlers on the mound, and one of them has the advantage of the opponent never facing him. I also like, not nearly as much, the Brewers to win the first five innings. They've had success against Mize, but don't seem to cash in on it. Give me the under 4.5 through five innings.

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