By Chris Stirewalt
Published June 18, 2019
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On the roster: Trump trades scrappy 2016 effort for a 2020 behemoth - Pentagon boss dumped amid domestic violence claims - Biden’s fundraising booming - Audible: So what you’re saying is that there’s a chance - *urp*
TRUMP TRADES SCRAPPY 2016 EFFORT FOR A 2020 BEHEMOTH
Fox News: “When President Trump speaks in front of some 20,000 people Tuesday night at a jam-packed arena in Orlando, he’ll formally kick off his 2020 re-election campaign. In reality, the president’s bid for a second term in the Oval Office has been underway for as long as Trump’s been in the White House. And compared with his 2016 campaign, the 2020 edition -- thanks to the power of the incumbency and a massive war chest -- is in a whole different (big) league. Highlighting the enthusiasm on the ground, Trump and his campaign have been tweeting in the run-up about the early-gathering crowds, with some supporters arriving more than 40 hours in advance to secure a spot in the arena. … Trump may need all the advantages he enjoys because – at least right now – national and crucial battleground state polls are offering warning signs as he ceremoniously launches his re-election campaign, with several Democratic candidates outpacing him in hypothetical matchups.”
Behind Trump’s Florida first strategy - Politico: “To win a second term in the White House, Donald Trump is running for president of Florida. Trump will officially kick off his reelection campaign Tuesday in Orlando, an event that comes 17 months after his first campaign-style rally as president — in nearby Melbourne. Sandwiched between those two events, Trump has spent more than 100 days in Florida as president, more than any other state outside the Beltway, according to two independent reports. … He boosted disaster money for the state after Hurricane Michael and approved more money for the Everglades. He courted Hispanic voters by cracking down on Venezuela and Cuba. He's tapped big Florida donors, with plans for a Wednesday fundraiser his campaign predicts will haul in another $4 million. And Trump campaigned relentlessly to make Ron DeSantis governor and Rick Scott senator, marking the first time since Reconstruction that the state has had two GOP senators and a Republican governor.”
Threatens to start deporting millions of illegal immigrants - AP: “President Donald Trump is threatening to remove millions of people living in the United States illegally on the eve of formally announcing his re-election bid. The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement next week will ‘begin the process of removing the millions of illegal aliens who have illicitly found their way into the United States,’ Trump said in a pair of tweets Monday night. ‘They will be removed as fast as they come in,’ he wrote. An administration official said the effort would focus on the more than 1 million people who have been issued final deportation orders by federal judges but remain at large in the U.S. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to explain the president’s tweets.”
THE RULEBOOK: WHEN THE TIME IS RIGHT
“Whence could it have proceeded, that a people, jealous as the Greeks were of their liberty, should so far abandon the rules of caution as to place their destiny in the hands of a single citizen?” – James Madison, Federalist No. 38
TIME OUT: FIVE, SIX, SEVEN, EIGHT
Atlantic: “Tempting as it may be to dismiss Jazzercise to the dustbin of fitness history, the dance-cardio program—which turns 50 this month—is more than a punch line. The format founded in a dance-studio basement by Judi Sheppard Missett, the front woman in the videos, established the style and substance of ‘boutique fitness,’ the fastest-growing segment of today’s $26 billion fitness industry. Jazzercise set the standard not only for contemporary choreographed offerings, but also for the franchise model exemplified by the likes of Curves, Pure Barre, and Barry’s Bootcamp. … Taught primarily in freestanding suburban centers or in community spaces such as churches and schools, Jazzercise is in every U.S. state and 25 other countries. At the height of its popularity, in the mid-1980s, Jazzercise was the second-fastest-growing franchise business in the country, after Domino’s Pizza. … Four decades before SoulCycle, Missett unquestionably created new spaces for women to build strength, self-esteem, and economic independence.”
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Trump job performance
Average approval: 43.2 percent
Average disapproval: 52 percent
Net Score: -8.8 points
Change from one week ago: up 1.4 points
[Average includes: Fox News: 45% approve - 53% disapprove; NBC/WSJ: 44% approve - 53% disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 42% approve - 53% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 43% approve - 49% disapprove; IBD: 42% approve - 52% disapprove.]
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PENTAGON BOSS DUMPED AMID DOMESTIC VIOLENCE CLAIMS
USA Today: “President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he was replacing Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan Tuesday. He made the announcement in an early-afternoon tweet. The announcement injects uncertainty into the highest echelon of the national security system at a time of escalating tensions with Iran that have left the Pentagon preparing for a possible military confrontation. The move comes hours after USA TODAY published a story revealing that the FBI had been investigating a violent 2010 fight between Shanahan and his then-wife.”
BIDEN’S FUNDRAISING BOOMING
NY Post: “Former Vice President Joe Biden said at a Manhattan fundraiser on Monday that his campaign has raised nearly $20 million — mostly from small donors. Biden made the statement during a fundraiser at the Upper East Side home of Jim Chanos, an investment manager who is the president of Kynikos Associates. At the end of the event, where about 180 people attended, Biden said his campaign has taken money from about 360,000 donors, with an average contribution of $55. Biden said the donations have ‘allowed me to be able to compete in a way that I’ve never been able to before. We’ve raised a great deal of money.’ Earlier on Monday, Biden, speaking at the Poor People’s Campaign Candidate Forum in Washington, DC, said he expected he would win broad swaths of the south if he becomes the Democratic presidential nominee.”
‘Front-runners don’t always get nominated’ - FiveThirtyEight: “…if Biden were to falter, he wouldn’t be the first early primary front-runner to come up short. Curious to understand how other high-name-recognition early front-runners have fared, we looked at candidates who consistently led in the polls at the outset of the campaign yet failed to win their party’s nomination. And we found four candidates since 1972 who fit that bill [Sen. Ed Muskie, former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani]. Some made strategic errors or had personal foibles that led to their downfall. Others got tripped up by not appreciating the power of the media in the primary process. In still other instances, unexpectedly strong opponents and the volatility of the primary calendar gave them trouble. And, for some, their views were simply out of touch with their primary electorate, which made them particularly vulnerable.”
Arnon Mishkin: From ‘Poor Elizabeth Warren’ to ‘Lucky Liz’ - Fox News: “In the complicated DNC drawing for debate post positions, she got placed in the debate where she is the clear polling leader. While Biden, [Bernie Sanders], South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and California Senator Kamala Harris, will face off against each other on the second debate night, Warren will likely be the center of attention on Debate Night One, as she is the only truly top-tier candidate on that night. … The Debate set-up is ideal for Warren. Her strategic need – right now – is merely to get people to decide that ‘She’s solid’ and put her on their list of ‘acceptable.’ She has no strategic interest this early in getting folks to “compare” her to Biden, Harris, or others. … Forcing a choice can come later in the Democratic marathon, after she gets people comfortable with her.”
Trump may play ‘Mystery Science Theater 3000’ with Dem debate - WSJ: “President Trump's political advisers wanted to keep the president off of Twitter during the Democratic debates next week, arguing that there was an advantage in letting potential challengers attack one another without distraction. Now, there’s a new strategy. The president, who has spent years embracing social media for his political advantage, is tentatively planning to live-tweet the debates on June 26-27, according to people familiar with the planning. Mr. Trump, even from a remove, always promised to be the most important figure at the debate. Regardless of the specific debate questions, many Democratic voters will be listening for how each candidate plans to take down Mr. Trump. Interacting in real time on Twitter would make Mr. Trump’s presence more tangible by directly inserting himself into the political conversation unfolding on stage.”
Klobuchar touts executive actions for first 100 days - WaPo: “As other presidential candidates continue to release dozens of policy papers on a variety of topics, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) took a different approach and compiled a list of everything she would do during her first 100 days in office. That list, which she planned to release early Tuesday morning, fills more than 16 printed pages and contains 136 items — 137 including the final entry, which reads: ‘And more!’ Roughly half of these promises involve reversing or counteracting actions taken by President Trump and his administration; about half a dozen center on pieces of legislation that Klobuchar would introduce. The rest of the list is filled with actions that she would take using the executive power of the presidency…”
Bullock qualifies for second July debate - Politico: “[Montana Gov. Steve] Bullock won't be on stage during the first round of Democratic debates in Miami next week. But he has now qualified for the July debates. By earning 1 percent in a CBS News poll in Iowa released Sunday, Bullock has now crossed the 1-percent mark in three polls, qualifying him for the second round of debates on the last two days of the month in Detroit. … Bullock is the 21st candidate to qualify for the July debate… This could (eventually) trigger a series of tiebreaker rules, which prioritizes candidates who cross both the polling and donor threshold, followed by candidates who only crossed the polling threshold (sorted by polling average), followed by candidates who only hit the donor threshold… Right now, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Bullock are effectively tied for the 20th spot, each having identical polling averages…”
Perez must have a headache - Politico: “Tom Perez isn’t facing blowback only over his management of his party’s unruly presidential primary field. He also has 280 constituents in Congress, some of whom are sounding off publicly. The Democratic National Committee chairman is the face of presidential debate rules that will allow a meditation guru to take the stage next week while a red state Western governor watches on TV. Against that backdrop, a collection of Democratic lawmakers are still aggravated with Perez after he yielded to the party’s base last year and agreed to dilute their power as superdelegates — a problem Perez is still trying to defuse in private meetings with Democrats. Perez, complained Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly, has made Democratic members of Congress ‘second-class citizens in our convention.’”
Maine House reverses on effort to turn Electoral College to popular vote… again - Bangor Daily News
Another Dem candidate joins race to challenge Tillis - Morning Consult
Trump has big decisions ahead of him on the economy - WaPo
Canadian PM Justin Trudeau to meet with Congressional leadership to talk trade - Politico
Dems worry Trump is overshadowing House agenda - WaPo
With states under one-party control, divisions deepen - NYT
AUDIBLE: SO WHAT YOU’RE SAYING IS THAT THERE’S A CHANCE
“Bless Joe's heart, he's more likely to find a unicorn with a four-leaf clover in it's mouth than a win in South Carolina” – South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick in response to a tout from Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden that he would win Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina next November.
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KMOX: “Mayonnaise is great in moderation for putting on sandwiches, egg salad, etc. … However, one thing we can all agree that it ISN'T meant for is being eaten directly out of the jar during a baseball game. This past weekend a Memphis Redbirds fan decided to throw all caution to the wind despite his stomach's best interest and spent the entire baseball game eating a jar of mayo. It was truly thrilling to follow, to say the least. On top of him being in a new seat each time the team tweeted out more updates, people were shocked to find that he was still maintaining a steady ‘mayo-eating’ pace. Despite communal disgust, Mayo man stayed true to himself through and through and is an inspiration that we should all be able to bring whatever snack we so please to a baseball game, no matter how much it grosses people out.”
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Not too many people can point to a specific day when they sat down with a book and got up cured of the stupidities of youth. I can. I was 19. The book was ‘Four Essays on Liberty.’ The author was Isaiah Berlin.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on Nov. 14, 1997.
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.