Call it an early warning sign for Donald Trump as he runs for re-election.
A new poll in reliably red Texas indicates former Vice President Joe Biden – the clear front-runner right now in the Democratic presidential nomination race – with a slight edge over Trump in a hypothetical 2020 general election showdown.
Wednesday’s release of the Quinnipiac University poll comes one day after a survey in Michigan indicated both Biden and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont – another leading Democratic nomination contender – both topping the president by double digits in potential general election matchups in the crucial battleground state.
In Texas, the Quinnipiac survey indicated Biden with a 48-44 percent advantage over Trump among Lone Star state voters.
The survey also suggested Trump holding a slight edge in hypothetical matchups with Sanders (48-44 percent); former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas (48-45 percent); South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (46-44 percent); Sen. Kamala Harris of California (47-43 percent) and former San Antonio Texas Mayor Julian Castro (46-43 percent).
The last Democrat to win Texas in a presidential election was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
"In historically red-leaning Texas, the report for the rest of the Democratic field is not so bad either, which could spell trouble for President Trump. It is the largest state in the country with a Republican edge,” Quinnipiac University Poll assistant director Peter Brown noted.
Michigan is one of three Rust Belt states – along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – making up the traditional Democratic "blue wall" in presidential elections that Trump narrowly captured in 2016. The president edged out Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Michigan by less than 11,000 votes out of more than 4.7 million cast, becoming the first GOP candidate to carry the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
The new poll in Michigan, conducted by the Glengariff Group, indicated both Biden and Sanders topping Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters.
The survey also suggested Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Harris, and Buttigieg with single digit advantages over Trump in hypothetical general election matchups in Michigan.
“Democrats who turned out in large numbers in the 2018 mid-term — helping to generate the most state voters in a gubernatorial race since 1962 — remain highly motivated heading into next year’s presidential contest and complicate Trump’s path to re-election, said Glengariff Group pollster Richard Czuba.
A Quinnipiac survey in Pennsylvania released last month spotlighted Biden with an 11 percentage point lead over the president.
The new Quinnipiac University poll was conducted May 29-June 4, with live telephone operators questioning 1,159 Texas voters. The sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The Glengariff Group survey was conducted May 28-30, with 600 likely Michigan voters questioned by live telephone operators. The sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.