Early results from KY, OR Dem primary polls
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Preliminary results from an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in Kentucky's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday and a phone poll during the past week in Oregon's vote-by-mail primary:
KEYS TO CLINTON WIN IN KENTUCKY
The demographic makeup of Kentucky's Democratic primary electorate was fairly similar to West Virginia's _ overwhelmingly white, with substantial numbers of lesser-educated, lower-income voters _ and that helped Hillary Rodham Clinton to a comparably one-sided victory over Barack Obama.
Clinton won two-thirds of women and nearly as many men; seven in 10 whites, who made up nearly 90 percent of Kentucky's electorate. Clinton also prevailed among all age, income and education categories, with particularly large margins among the lower-earning and less educated voters.
Obama and Clinton were running about even with self-described independents, who were about one in 10 voters in Kentucky. He won a bare majority among those who most valued change as a candidate attribute, but about a quarter cited experience and Clinton won nearly all of them.
One of the few other groups where Obama was competitive was among those who thought Clinton's proposal to suspend the federal gasoline tax this summer was a bad idea.
Kentucky has one of the least liberal electorates out of 33 competitive Democratic primaries in which exit polls were conducted this year _ only about a third of voters called themselves liberal _ and that, too, worked in Clinton's favor. She ran strongest among conservatives and moderates; Obama tends to do better among liberals.
IDEOLOGICAL EXTREMES
In contrast to Kentucky, Oregon was among the most liberal Democratic electorates to date, with close to six in 10 voters in its vote-by-mail primary calling themselves liberal.
ISSUE DIFFERENCES
Kentucky continued a recent trend in Democratic primaries with voters overwhelmingly picking the economy when given three choices for the most important issue facing the country. Oregon defied that trend. About two-thirds of Democratic voters in Kentucky said the economy was the top issue, about 20 percent picked the Iraq war and half as many said health care. In Oregon, fewer than half picked the economy, three in 10 said Iraq and two in 10 said health care.
Showing Clinton's strength, just over half of those in Kentucky who named Iraq as the top problem voted for her. Only in five other states have more than half most concerned about Iraq favored Clinton.
Voters in Kentucky were a bit more likely than in Oregon to say the economic slowdown has affected them and their families a great deal. Kentucky Democrats also were more likely than their Oregon counterparts to say it's a good idea to suspend the federal gas tax this summer _ an idea Clinton has promoted and Obama has criticized.
KEEPING HOPE ALIVE ... OR NOT
As Obama has built a daunting lead among convention delegates, his own supporters in Kentucky and Oregon were nearly unanimous in thinking he will secure the Democratic nomination. Many Clinton voters maintained hope for their candidate but substantial numbers acknowledged Obama as the likely nominee _ half of Clinton voters in Oregon and a third in Kentucky said Obama will win the nomination.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
All balloting was by mail in Oregon's primary and the phone poll asked people when they voted or planned to. The survey found Clinton ran stronger among those who voted earlier while Obama ran better among those who mailed or delivered their ballots closer to election day.
In Kentucky, almost nine in 10 said they made up their minds more than a month ago.
JOHN EDWARDS
Nearly half of Kentucky Democratic voters said John Edwards' endorsement of Obama was an important factor in their vote. Yet this group split about evenly between Clinton and Obama. The question wasn't asked in Oregon, where the phone poll began before Edwards' announcement.
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Results from a partial exit poll sample conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International among 1,342 Democratic primary voters in 30 precincts across Kentucky and telephone polling May 12-18 among 1,201 people who said they definitely had voted or definitely would vote in Oregon's vote-by-mail Democratic primary.
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