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Rainstorms to eye northeastern US during third week of November

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Wet weather will return to the northeastern United States during the third week of November, with the potential for some snow in high elevations.

While these storms are unlikely to bring wintry travel to most areas, one or both could cause some travel delays and bring some rain to needy areas at the same time.

So far this November, temperatures during most days have been considerably lower, when compared to last November in much of the Northeast. And while the episodes of chilly air have been brief, they have packed a little sting, compared to the September and October warmth.

However, temperatures in most locations are still running above average for November.

For example, in New York City, temperatures from Nov. 1-9 have averaged 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Temperatures during the same period during November 2015 averaged 8.9 degrees above normal, or almost a 6-degree difference.

"The lack of cold air has and will continue to impact the form of precipitation through at least the third week of the month," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity. "Rain will fall in most areas as a result."

One such storm is likely to develop along the Atlantic coast and affect the Northeast during the middle to latter part of next week.

If the storm would remain weak, then it would swing through at a quick pace and occur Tuesday night and Wednesday. It would affect mostly New England and the mid-Atlantic with unremarkable rain and minor travel disruptions.

In a second scenario, a stronger storm would tend to move more slowly and occur Thursday and Friday. This sort of storm has the potential to generate heavy rain and gusty winds and would likely result in significant travel disruptions as well as raise the risk of coastal flooding.

"The strong storm concept could also manufacture enough cold air to bring a change to wet snow over some of the high ground in the mid-Atlantic and western New England and could be followed by a period of lake-effect snow," according to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. "We had two storms do that during October."

Regardless, any snow or flurries are expected to be restricted to the highest elevations in northwestern New England and the central Appalachians.

In either scenario, more beneficial rain will fall on some areas of the Northeast that are experiencing long-term drought conditions.

A second storm could bring another dose of rain into the Northeast toward the end of the third week of the month, perhaps as late as Nov. 20-21.

During next weekend, this second storm has the potential to bring the first wind-swept snow and perhaps blizzard conditions of the season to part of the northern Plains.

In the wake of this second storm, it is possible that chilly air settles into the Northeast a little while longer prior to the end of the month, when compared to the autumn up to this point.

Just enough cold air may swing around to prompt a lake-effect snow event, which could span a couple of days rather than a few hours.

"Even if air gets chilly enough to produce snow returns on a couple of occasions we are not likely to have a cold and stormy weather pattern lock in for the Northeast just yet," Pastelok said. "But the end result will be for temperatures to average much closer to normal in the Northeast, when compared the rest of the nation."

The pattern may continue to favor rain over snow in most areas into early December.