After calm weather conditions during much of the first half of November, one or more significant storms may arrive in the northeastern United States during the third week of the month.
Conditions may deteriorate and the weather may turn unsettled as early as the middle of next week.
A significant storm with heavy precipitation, gusty winds and rough seas may unfold over the Northeast prior to the conclusion of next week.
There is the potential for drenching rain for drought-stricken areas of the Northeast with the chance of accumulating wet snow in some locations on its northwestern flank.
How strong this storm becomes and how much cold air the storm taps is uncertain this far out.
The strength and track of the storm will depend on the position of the jet stream. The jet stream is a high-speed river of air high in the atmosphere that guides storm systems along. A sharp dip in the jet stream is often indicative of major storm formation and is always associated with a blast of cooler or colder air.
"The jet stream will dive toward the Gulf coast next week," according to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Edward Vallee.
"As the jet stream plunge occurs, a storm is likely to develop along the mid-Atlantic coast then strengthen while moving northward toward New England," Vallee said.
The southward plunge of the jet stream and the storm produced later next week is likely to be much more potent than the brief plunge and storm to kick off this weekend.
The southward plunge of the jet stream will direct colder air into the Midwest and East and much cooler air into part of the South.
"While temperatures may not stray much below average for the middle of November, it will certainly feel much colder compared to most days thus far this month," Vallee said.
For example around New York City, highs during the first week of November have ranged from the middle 50s F to the lower 70s. Highs late next week may range from the upper 40s to near 50. Factoring in wind, rain and other conditions, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures may be in the 30s for a couple of days.
The blast of cold air in the wake of the storm could also trigger a brief, but significant, lake-effect snow event late next week.
While the jet stream may again change position later in November, it may remain convoluted enough to help spin up additional potent storms in the Northeast and in other parts of the nation.