Newly-formed Tropical Storm Javier will target Mexico's Baja California Sur with flooding rain and locally damaging winds early this week.
Javier formed at midday Sunday over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Javier will continue to strengthen as it presses away from mainland southern Mexico toward Baja California Sur into Monday night.
The window for intensification is likely too short for Javier to become a hurricane, but it will be a moderate to strong tropical storm when it reaches the Baja California Sur Monday night into Tuesday.
As Javier strengthens, surf will further increase and become rough for swimmers and small craft offshore of central Mexico and the southern waters of the Gulf of California.
Torrential rain and strong winds will ease in the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima on Sunday night as Javier departs. Manzanillo, Mexico, was inundated with nearly 250 mm (10 inches) of rain in the 36-hours ending early Sunday afternoon.
Rain and gusty winds will increase from south to north across the Baja California Sur Monday into Tuesday as Javier arrives. Also at this time, downpours will stream into the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains.
Rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be common across the southern Baja California Sur. Worse than ruining vacation plans for those at the resorts in Cabo San Lucas and La Paz, localized flash flooding can result.
Wind gusts of 65-95 km/h (40-60 mph) will also be common across the southern Baja California Sur Monday night into Tuesday night, leading to sporadic power outages, tree damage and minor structural damage.
In the mountains north of Cabo San Lucas, there can be locally higher rain totals and wind gusts.
The risk of flooding and mudslides will be higher in the mountainous areas of Sinaloa and Durango, where downpours will stream into the western slopes of the mountains and unleash rainfall of 200 mm (8 inches).
Javier will weaken to a tropical depression at midweek, but there can still be localized flooding downpours from the northern Baja California Sur to the Four Corners region of the United States as its moisture is drawn northward.