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Tropical Atlantic to attempt to reactivate into early August

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A pair of systems will attempt to end the tropical drought in the Atlantic Basin into early August.

While the eastern Pacific Ocean has been busy, the Atlantic Basin has been without a tropical storm since Danielle roamed the Bay of Campeche in late June.

"Weak disturbances have been moving westward from Africa over the past couple of months," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"Up to this point, there has been too much dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert for these systems to develop," Kottlowski said, adding that dry air is common during June and July over much of the Atlantic.

However, a tropical wave and low are currently being monitored to overcome obstacles in each's path and reactivate the Atlantic Basin.

The tropical wave in the central Atlantic is expected to track through the Leeward Islands early on Sunday, and then south of the Greater Antilles early next week and toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the northern Central American nations at midweek.

The potential for the wave to develop will progressively increase into midweek.

"What is [currently] going against development is its quick-forward speed," AccuWeather Meteorologist Michael Doll. "It is moving at 25-30 mph, and any tropical wave moving that quickly tends to have a hard time organizing into a tropical entity."

Its forward speed should lessen by midweek, and Doll anticipates the overall environment should be more conducive for development.

"Even if the wave fails to develop before reaching central America or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, it could then organize in the Bay of Campeche later in the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.

Despite initially struggling to become a tropical depression, the wave will spread heavy and gusty showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean.

"Heavier showers and thunderstorms will spread from the Leeward and northern Windward islands to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend," Miller said. "The showers and storms will reach the Dominican Republic by later on Sunday and then Jamaica on Monday."

Localized flash flooding can result, especially in the higher terrain.

Heavy rain, wind and surf would increase if the wave takes shape into a tropical depression or storm in the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic would acquire the name "Earl."

Residents and visitors to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize should continue to check back with AccuWeather as updates on this potential tropical threat.

AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring the tropical low set to move westward into the central Atlantic Ocean into the start of August.

"The low is located in an area of fairly low wind shear and sufficiently high sea surface temperatures," Doll said. Both factors favor development.

Wind shear refers to the changing of the speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent a system from developing or even shred apart a tropical storm or hurricane.

With dry, dusty air and stronger wind shear in the low's path, Doll anticipates that the window for development will close by the start of August.

Despite the active start to the hurricane season, a lull in activity in July in not uncommon. Tropical activity typically ramps up from August to early September as the waters of the Atlantic Basin reach their warmest.

On average, the second named storm in the Atlantic forms on August 1.