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Tropical system to raise flood, rough surf threat across eastern Mexico

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A brewing tropical system in the Bay of Campeche will elevate the risk for flooding and rough seas across eastern Mexico into early next week.

Boaters, residents and vacationers from South Texas to the Yucatan Peninsula will want to keep an eye on the weather situation over the next few days.

AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski is currently monitoring an area of disturbed weather emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula that has the potential to develop into a tropical system over the Bay of Campeche.

"If this system can pull away from land, there is a small chance it could become an organized tropical system Sunday or early next week," Kottlowski explained.

A track too close to the Mexican coast would prevent the storm from strengthening into a full-blown tropical system, he added.

Should the system reach tropical storm status, the next names on the list for the Atlantic basin in 2016 are Danielle and Earl. There is another area off the East Coast of the United States that is being monitored for tropical development this weekend and into early next week.

Regardless of whether this system strengthens into a tropical depression or storm, the threat for flooding rain and rough seas will heighten along portions of eastern Mexico.

"Locally heavy rain, and perhaps some flooding, may occur across the states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Monday and Tuesday," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Miller.

"This includes the cities of Ciudad Victoria and Tampico."

Miller added that this system would pose more of a flooding rain threat than wind threat to the region.

Surf will build along coastal areas of eastern Mexico as the system approaches. The strength and frequency of rip currents are expected to increase.

While the bulk of the rain is expected to miss Texas, wave heights and rip currents could increase across southern portions of the state. Bathers are urged to heed all beach warnings to avoid a life-threatening situation.

Depending on the track of the system, bands of heavy rain may brush the southern fringes of Brownsville, Texas, early next week.

Oil rigs along the Gulf Coast states should not have to deal with impacts from this system.

Conditions are forecast to gradually quiet down across eastern Mexico at midweek, when more typical afternoon thunderstorms are expected to replace the heavy downpours.

Another area of potential tropical development will need to be monitored near the Yucatan Peninsula later next week, according to Miller.