Dry and mild weather across New York for the state's April 19 primary is expected to boost voter turnout.
In addition to a lack of rain, daytime temperatures are expected to be in the 60s F around New York City and the Southern Tier, with highs in the 50s elsewhere across the state. Highs will be near normal for mid-April.
Based on past election and weather trends studied by AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, the tranquil weather should only help the turnout in a high-profile race. Up for grabs are 95 GOP delegates and 163 Democratic delegates, excluding the Democratic superdelegates.
Voter turnout will be important, especially for Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, who has won seven straight primaries going into the New York primary, according to National Public Radio (NPR).
Independents can't vote in the primary, and an analysis of data by NPR shows that New York is more diverse and skewed older. According to NPR, these factors will work in Hillary Clinton's favor. New York is also home of GOP candidate Donald Trump, who has business properties in the Empire State and has consistently trounced Ted Cruz and John Kasich in New York polling.
While weather for the 2016 primary is expected to be quiet, New Yorkers tend to have a higher weather sensitivity compared to other voters in the United States, according to the AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions study. The research, conducted by AccuWeather Business Intelligence Manager and Meteorologist Tim Loftus, analyzed overall weather trends and voting data, utilizing L2 as a resource.
"Generally, the warmer the low temperature, the more New Yorkers tend to go out to vote," Loftus said. "It suggests that days with warmer starts will boost turnout across the state. New Yorkers are most deterred during windy conditions, especially when rain is present."
"Weather is all relative," Loftus said. "New Yorkers have a different ‘weather norm' than Americans in other states. For example, Floridians were most deterred to vote when conditions were muggy, so a combination of abnormally warm temperatures and high dew-point temperatures."
"And in most states, our analysis showed that voters were most deterred when conditions were extreme and those extremes vary across the country. New York had a significant weather sensitivity compared to other states. Over 25 percent of the change in voter turnout in primary elections can be explained by weather in our model," he added.
New York voters aged 65 and older are most susceptible to temperature, Loftus said.
"Republicans are also sensitive to temperature in the state; they have a lower turnout in colder weather," he said.