Rounds of rain will continue to fall across northern Pakistan and far northwestern India through Monday, heightening the risk for flash flooding and mudslides. The area will see a brief break from rain on Tuesday, but rain and the threat for flooding will return beginning on Wednesday.
On Monday, the threat for flooding will be the greatest from northern Pakistan into Jammu and Kashmir as well as Himachal Pradesh in India.
Rainfall in these areas should trend lighter compared to past days, but 25-50 mm (1-2 inches) of rain is still expected to fall in some areas. This rain, combined with the rain that fell over the weekend and last week, could lead to additional flooding.
Islamabad will likely see rainfall on Monday, but the greatest risk for flooding will be in the mountains just to the north of the city.
Islamabad has received nearly 100 mm (4 inches) of rain from Friday to Sunday. Murree, a mountainous area just to the north of Islamabad, has seen about 150 mm (6 inches) of rain during the same time.
Flooding has been reported to be widespread across Pakistan starting late last week. Daily Pakistan reported that nine people have been killed and over 100 houses damaged in Baluchistan.
Over the weekend, a coal mine collapsed in northwestern Pakistan due to flooding. According to the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan, as of Sunday, five workers have been killed and another two remained trapped.
The National Disaster Management Authority said the preliminary death toll due to the flooding is 31.
Northern Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwestern India will have a brief break from the rain on Tuesday allowing flood water to recede. The break from the rain, however, will be short-lived as more rain moves into the region on Wednesday.
From Wednesday to Friday, several more disturbances moving across the region will lead to more rain, some of which will be heavy leading to flooding. Similar to the past several days, the greatest risk for flooding will be from northern Afghanistan, across northern Pakistan and into Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir in northwestern India.
More isolated thunderstorms will move across northern Baluchistan, but these storms could bring locally heavy rain and dangerous flash flooding.
Residents should avoid flood-prone areas and are reminded to never drive through a flooded area.