New Tropical Threat for India and Sri Lanka

Following a tropical low that produced flooding in parts of southern India this week, another tropical threat will renew flooding concerns across southern India as well as Sri Lanka this weekend into early next week.

The large area of unsettled weather over the southern Bay of Bengal that helped produce the last tropical low will be the development area of this next threat as well.

This new tropical threat will likely take shape to the east of Sri Lanka this weekend as rain and thunderstorms become widespread across the island nation, while also advancing into far southeast India.

A general northwest movement of the newly developed tropical low is expected from the weekend into early next week causing rain to spread over much of southern India.

Slow movement of this will result in several days of tropical downpours for the region elevating the risk for flooding.

Locations most likely to experience flooding this weekend in all of Sri Lanka as well as southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu in India.

From Monday through Wednesday of next week, the heaviest rainfall is expected over southern India, encompassing much of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and southern Karnataka.

Rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm (4 inches) are possible in Colombo, Kochi and Madurai with flooding downpours possible in Coimbatore, Bengaluru and Chennai.

Due to interaction with both Sri Lanka and India, development into a named tropical system will be hindered though it remains a possibility that a weak tropical cyclone forms before the low tracks into India.

Flooding will be the primary concern with this tropical threat; however, localized damaging winds are possible in thunderstorms.

In the longer range, this potential tropical system could track into the Arabian Sea where there will be a higher likelihood for development into an organized tropical cyclone.