Two systems in the Atlantic basin bear watching for tropical development and impact on populated areas into next week in what may be the last gasp for the 2015 hurricane season.
One system will be tracking into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The other system will drift through waters between Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Bermuda during the second week of November.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, both systems have a low chance of development.
"The system moving northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico will have a short window to develop this weekend before encountering a cold front pushing off the Texas coast," Kottlowski said.
The Gulf system will enhance showers and thunderstorms from coastal areas of northeastern Mexico to coastal Texas and Louisiana this weekend. Seas in the western Gulf will build a bit but are unlikely to have significant impact on petroleum platforms in the region.
Once the system reaches the front, disruptive winds will increase, and the potential for tropical development will quickly diminish.
"The second system will spread moderate to heavy rainfall from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and part of Hispaniola this weekend," Kottlowski said.
Many areas bordering the northern Caribbean Sea have received lower-than-average rainfall since the spring and could stand a thorough soaking in lieu of flooding.
Rainfall in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands, has been about 50 percent of average since Feb. 1, 2015.
"The second system will have more time to organize north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola next week," Kottlowski said. "Waters are marginally warm and disruptive winds will weaken in that area."
As a result, the southwestern Atlantic, as opposed to the southwestern Gulf has a slightly greater chance at spawning a tropical depression or storm.
Areas from the Bahamas to Bermuda should closely monitor the path and strength of the system. Direct impact on the Atlantic Seaboard of the United States seems unlikely, unless steering winds direct the system farther to the west.
The system may pass near Bermuda around Wednesday, Nov. 11, with gusty showers and thunderstorms.
Depending on the strength of the system, surf and seas could be raised from Puerto Rico to Bermuda and the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. Building seas and surf would become a concern for bathers, boaters and cruise interests.
The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30. Strengthening westerly winds and cooling waters bring the demise of tropical systems as the month progresses.
Following the two marginal threats into next week, the basin may be finished churning up tropical storms and hurricanes, aside from perhaps a poorly organized drenching system in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Prior to this weekend, there have been 10 tropical storms and three hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes during the 2015 season. All numbers were below the average of 12 tropical storms, six hurricane and three major hurricanes.
Joaquin, which blasted the Bahamas and sent tropical moisture into the Southeastern states, stopped just short of being a Category 5 hurricane. Tropical storms Ana and Bill were the only two systems to make landfall in the U.S.