A pair of tropical systems could develop across the northern Indian Ocean this week with possible impacts for India, Bangladesh, Oman and Yemen.
The North Indian Ocean is now entering its second peak of the tropical season. This surge occurs during the months of October and November, following a period of less activity during the monsoon season that started in late May.
As warm ocean waters remain in the Bay of Bengal, a low pressure system is beginning to take shape near Sri Lanka to the southeast of India.
This low is expected to move along the eastern coast of Sri Lanka early in the week and track northwest toward the southeastern coast of India later in the week.
Although conditions are still not ideal for tropical development through the middle of next week, slow development is still possible as the week progresses. The farther away from land the low pressure area remains, the better chance for an organized tropical cyclone to form. A developed tropical system would bring not only periods of heavy rains and flooding downpours, but also wind speeds of 62 km/h (around 40 mph) along the coast.
"Regardless of development, rainfall will increase in coverage and intensity across Sri Lanka and southeast India this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. This is where the rain will likely be heaviest, with enough tropical characteristics to cause flooding.
"The low will then track northward, near the east coast of India through the week, spreading mainly beneficial rains along the coastline," Nicholls added.
Other than southern India, where rain can move farther inland, much of the heaver rain and robust thunderstorms will remain along the coasts and offshore through the end of the week.
Moisture will surge northeastward late this week through the weekend and will bring the threat for heavy rainfall to parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar.
On the other side of India, another tropical system is likely to in the Arabian Sea during the middle of the week.
This tropical system is likely to become the more significant of the two across the northern Indian Ocean.
"The main threat area for this feature would be Somalia, Yemen and western Oman," Nicholls said of the possible tropical system in the Arabian Sea.
Although it is still very early to pinpoint the exact location for the not yet developed storm, Nicholls anticipates "several inches of rain and flooding are possible, starting around Nov. 1."
While impacts could begin as soon as Sunday in northeast Somalia, the threat for flooding and locally damaging winds will expand into Yemen and perhaps southern Oman during the first half of next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the Indian Basin, following this pattern change, in the coming week.
Content contributed by AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.