Fox News Weather Center

Potential Tropical Development to Bring Flooding Rain to Texas

Although the Atlantic has been quiet for the past few weeks, conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are showing signs that the tropical season may not be finished.

In El Niño years, it is rather difficult for tropical systems to strengthen in the Atlantic due unrelenting wind shear, which was the case during the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

A less than active tropical season has allowed the waters in the Gulf of Mexico to become very warm, leading to the enhancement of an area of unsettled weather.

South Central Extended Regional Weather Forecast

"An expansive area of showers and thunderstorms will move from the Bay of Campeche into the western Gulf of Mexico this week. This plume of deep, tropical moisture will then move toward Texas and the western Gulf Coast on Thursday," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Ben Noll.

Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf will promote tropical development, moderate wind shear will be the inhibiting factor against this system; likely leading to it remaining an undeveloped, yet robust area of showers and thunderstorms.

Whether or not this disturbance can develop into a tropical system, the copious amounts of Gulf moisture brought inland with this system will raise the threat for flooding later on this week.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor more than 14 million Texas residents are currently impacted by some degree of drought, with close to one-third of the state in a severe-to-exceptional drought.

Noll explains "While the rain will be beneficial for many drought-ridden areas across central and eastern Texas, too much rain too quickly can bring a new set of problems."

Slow moving torrential downpours can lead to quickly rising water on roads, creating dangerous conditions for those traveling across the state later this week.

The potential for this system to linger across the South through the end of the week and into the weekend exists as a stubborn area of high pressure remains parked over the eastern half of the nation.

This high pressure area will act as a wall preventing the moisture from moving eastward away from the region, exacerbating existing flooding concerns.

AccuWeather meteorologists will keep a close eye on this developing system for any changes or updates over the next few days.