A tropical wave currently over Central America will move westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean this weekend.
The combination of moving over warm ocean waters and farther from land will allow for slow development into a tropical low with a high likelihood of eventual organization into a named tropical system to the south of Mexico early next week.
In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread from western Nicaragua through western Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize this weekend.
While not all areas will experience heavy rainfall, the entire region is at risk for rainfall rates 25 mm (1 inch) or greater per hour at times resulting in an elevated risk for flash flooding.
Areas that experience the heaviest rainfall could see totals exceeding 100 mm (4 inches) by Monday. This amount of rainfall will also increase the threat for mudslides in addition to flash flooding.
Locations such as Guatemala City, Belize City and San Salvador are at risk for these dangerous conditions.
By Monday, tropical development is possible to the south of Mexico; however, regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over a large area from southeast Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula into Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador and Honduras.
A westward track of this potential tropical system will allow rainfall to diminish from El Salvador and Honduras into Nicaragua early next week.
Meanwhile, the heaviest rains will be found from Guatemala westward into the Mexico states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tabasco and Veracruz.
An eventual landfall or at the very least a surge of tropical moisture into south-central and central Mexico is expected during the middle of next week which will continue the threat for flash flooding and mudslides. Acapulco and Mexico City appear to be in line for these potentially life-threatening impacts.
As this moisture and potential tropical system are pulled northward, the unsettled weather could help fuel the development of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico and will also bring the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Texas and the Gulf Coast.