An area of low pressure just east of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands is becoming better organized and will likely become a named tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Even though it remains a developing tropical cyclone, gusty winds and downpours are already impacting Guam and the neighboring islands to the north.
Downpours and gusty winds will continue to impact the islands into Tuesday, local time as the developing tropical low moves westward.
After departing Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, the strengthening cyclone will continue westward toward the Philippines during the middle of the week.
The potential exists for this developing tropical cyclone to go through a period of rapid intensification while crossing the Philippine Sea resulting in a very powerful typhoon approaching the Philippines this weekend.
A cold front to the north will be the key factor in determining the track of this developing cyclone this weekend and into next week.
If the front presses far enough south, the tropical system could be pulled northward, sparing the Philippines from any significant impacts but bring the greatest threat to eastern Japan early next week.
If this connection is missed, the tropical system would likely track farther west, but could then stall just east of the northern Philippines over the weekend resulting in several days of rain and gusty winds across Luzon.
A slow drift northward would then occur next week with potential impacts still possible for Japan.
A second tropical system is also likely to develop across the West Pacific this week. This development would be farther east of the Mariana Islands and a west-to-northwest track would bring another round of adverse weather to the islands from Friday into the weekend.
This second storm will then interact with the cold front to the north and be lifted north and northeast into the open Pacific Ocean early next week with no other impacts to land expected.