Showers bringing generally welcome rainfall to the southwestern coast of India will gradually spread northward toward Mumbai into this weekend.
An area of low pressure spinning just offshore in the eastern Arabian Sea will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to southern India late this week.
The wet weather will generally be welcome, especially near the southwestern coast, after rainfall totals were held below normal from the late spring to September.
However, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls cautioned that the rain could be locally heavy at times along the southwestern coast. That may lead to isolated flash flooding, as well as heightening the risk of vehicles hydroplaning at highway speeds.
Such potential downpours will target Kochi and Kozhikode.
A greater danger for flooding downpours exists late this week in far northeastern India, eastern Bangladesh and Myanmar as a monsoon low moves inland with an abundance of moisture.
As the low in the Arabian Sea drifts northward, the showers will approach Mumbai this weekend. "Any rainfall around Mumbai would generally be light to moderate and definitely beneficial," said Nicholls.
The AccuWeather Tropical Cyclone Center is keeping a close eye on the low for potential development as it is spinning over warm water and disruptive wind shear is lessening. However, Nicholls places the odds of such development at "one out of five chances." The low's proximity to land will likely limit strengthening.
The low will not press far enough to the north to bring any rain to Ahmedabad or New Delhi.
Nicholls instead expects the low to curve to the west after the weekend and may bring Oman showers later next week. An increase in wind shear will likely continue to suppress the low's chances for tropical cyclone development as it tracks toward Oman.