Moisture from Tropical Depression 11 and a slow-moving storm system may join forces to soak the Northeast and elevate the risk of flooding into next week.
Tropical Depression 11 will contribute to rounds of drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms in Bermuda this week while drifting northwestward.
While little change in strength of the system is forecast through Wednesday, the depression will also continue to cause rough seas between Bermuda and the southern Atlantic coast of the United States.
Steering winds will tend to allow multiple weather systems including the depression to come together along the East coast by this weekend.
According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "While it will not rain continuously in the Northeast this week, this is a significant pattern change for the upper mid-Atlantic to New England following many days and weeks of dry weather."
Despite dryness during much of August and September, the combination of a stalled front, Tropical Depression 11 or its remnants and moisture from the South may bring the risk of flooding beyond urban and poor drainage areas in the mid-Atlantic and New England on Friday into Sunday.
The heaviest rain is most likely to take aim from part of New York state to portions of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Quebec. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will also produce more rain in parts of the South.
If the three components come together farther south, then the core of heavy rain could also capture areas from the Carolinas to New jersey and Pennsylvania.
Due to long-term dryness in the Northeast, many streams and river levels are close to their lowest levels of the year, so the rain will be of benefit for parts of region.
While flooding along the major rivers is not likely in this case, a significant rise on some small streams is likely, however.
Where the rounds of heavy rain repeat, small stream flooding could develop along with modest rises on the larger rivers.
The wet pattern may not go away until early next week when high pressure from central Canada finally builds toward the East Coast. Moisture from the Atlantic could continue to feed in across New England and Atlantic Canada through Monday.
High pressure, Tropical Depression 11 and the southern storm system will also cause another bout of onshore winds and related problems along the East coast.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, "The squeeze between high pressure to the north and the storms moving up from the south will once again allow gusty northeasterly winds to buffet the mid-Atlantic coast, renewing the danger of rough surf, rip currents and minor coastal flooding after last week's lashing."
Day after day of onshore winds pushed tides well above normal along the coast from the Carolinas to part of the Delmarva Peninsula last week.
This time the significant risk of rough surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding may also spread northward into New England on Friday and into Saturday. The risk of minor coastal flooding will occur at times of high tide.