Low pressure packed with heavy rain will move through western India this weekend, helping to make up some of the monsoon deficit so far this season.
The low pressure originated in the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday and slammed into the eastern coast of India, near Visakhapatnam. Throughout the week, the heavy rain shifted westward now aiming for the city of Surat this weekend.
"The heaviest rain will likely be between Mumbai and Ahmedabad," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said, as the low tracks from western Maharashtra on Friday through Gujarat this weekend. Parts of eastern Pakistan could also get rain, although the heaviest likely remains far east of Karachi.
"Rainfall totals could eclipse 150 mm (about 6 inches) over the weekend," Douty added.
Locally higher amounts are also possible, bringing the concern for flooding.
Early in the new week, however, a trough swinging through the Middle East will help deflect the moisture northward. "This trough will pull the low and its moisture as far north as Kashmir and Nepal," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Pulling the moisture northward will help to spread out the rain, keeping rainfall totals lower as the heaviest rain stretches from Rajasthan to Uttarakhand and Nepal into Tuesday. This would bring rain to the major cities of Jaipur and New Delhi. Over several days, rainfall totals could reach as high as 100 mm (4 inches).
"This is a short duration event (three to four days), but it should be enough to trim the deficits in western and northern areas of India," Nicholls explained. "The average national rain deficit could move from its current -15 percent to -12 or -10 percent by the middle of the week."
Behind this monsoonal moisture, dry weather is expected to settle into western India for the new week. Meanwhile, another surge of monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal will aim for eastern coasts of India.