A storm taking a rare early-September track across northern Africa will emerge into the Mediterranean Sea on Wednesday then track northeast across southern Italy and into Balkan Peninsula during the second half of the week.
The storm is expected to strengthen as it tracks northward bringing heavy rainfall and a high risk for flooding along its path.
Areas from Sicily through Calabria are the most likely regions of Italy to experience flooding rainfall from the storm. The heavy rainfall will begin late Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday night before ending. Rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be common with localized amounts up to 150 mm (6 inches). Flash flooding will be the biggest concern; however, mudslides are also possible.
While flooding is not expected farther north, rain is expected across Campania, Basilicata and Puglia where amounts will generally be under 25 mm (1 inch).
The downpours will move into western Greece and southern Albania on Wednesday night before spreading northeastward across northern Greece, Macedonia, western Bulgaria and southern Serbia during the day on Thursday.
These areas will also be at high risk for flash flooding along with mudslides due to the rugged terrain of the region.
Rainfall amounts of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) will be common, with localized amounts up to 150 mm (6 inches).
The potential exists for this storm to bring heavy rainfall to northern Bulgaria and much of Romania Thursday night into Friday, depending on the exact track and intensity of the low pressure system.
Anyone traveling to southern Italy and the Balkan Peninsula should be prepared for travel disruptions due to the adverse weather that is expected from from this storm system.
Several days of tranquil weather will follow in the wake of this storm system across southern and southeast Europe.