While Tropical Storm Kevin will stay well away from Mexico, its moisture will still lead to an increase in showers and thunderstorms from Baja California to the Four Corners region of the United States into Saturday.
Tropical Storm Kevin took shape early Thursday morning several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
The good news is that Kevin should not follow in the footsteps of Ignacio and Jimena in becoming a major hurricane. In fact, the combination of disruptive wind shear and drier air should prevent Kevin from not only becoming a hurricane but also a strong tropical storm as it churns northward through Friday.
By or during this weekend, further weakening will cause Kevin to dissipate to a remnant low as it curves to the west into the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
While the center of Kevin will remain well away from land, some of its moisture will continue to be funneled across the Baja California Peninsula to the Four Corners region of the United States. An increase in showers and thunderstorms will result with the most activity in and around the higher terrain.
Widespread flash flooding is not expected, but there can be isolated issues. That is especially true in any slow-moving downpour.
"The increase in showers and thunderstorms is not atypical for Baja California as this is the time of year to get some tropical moisture drawn into the area," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller. The same can be said for the Four Corners region as Kevin's moisture will increase thunderstorm activity much like an extra surge of monsoon moisture.
Residents and vacationers will face disruptions to outdoor plans due to the showers and thunderstorms. This includes hikers in the Four Corners and beachgoers at the resorts in Baja California. Remember that as soon as thunder is heard, the danger of being struck by lightning is present.
Outside of any isolated flooding problems, the rain will actually be beneficial to Arizona and western New Mexico by providing drought relief.
With Kevin expected to remain relatively weak, there will only be a slight increase in surf along the southwestern coast of Baja California and mainland southwestern Mexico Friday and Saturday as Kevin makes its closest approach before curving away and fizzling.