Tropical Depression 14-E developed several hundred miles southwest of Mexico on Monday and is expected to strengthen as it moves northward through the middle of the week.
This slow strengthening will result in the tropical system reaching tropical storm strength and being given the name Kevin.
While warm waters and relatively low wind shear will allow for some strengthening, ultimately cooler waters and high wind shear await the tropical system as it continues to the north and northeast during the second half of the week.
These factors will result in a weakening storm system as it begins to approach southern Baja California from Friday into this weekend.
The strong southwest wind shear will lift tropical moisture northeastward into Baja California and northern Mexico as early as Thursday with enhanced rain and thunderstorms expected to continue through the weekend.
In fact, some of this moisture will likely reach Arizona and New Mexico, resulting numerous showers and thunderstorms from Friday through the weekend.
While the combination of cooler waters and strong wind shear will likely result in weakening into a post tropical low pressure over the open Pacific Ocean this weekend, moisture from the storm can still cause localized flash flooding across Baja California and northern Mexico.