New Threats Brewing in the West Pacific

While the remnants of Soudelor continue to drench parts of Japan with heavy rainfall, the next threat is already taking shape.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to become better organized several hundred miles to the southeast of Guam and there is a high probability of at least one tropical system developing later this week.

This area of unsettled weather spans hundreds of miles and could actually foster the development of multiple tropical systems before the end of the week.

The most likely scenario involves a pair of tropical systems developing with the westernmost storm strengthening as it tracks northwest toward the Northern Mariana Islands this weekend. Areas that were battered by Soudelor could again have to deal with a strong tropical system.

This potential cyclone would then travel generally west to northwest across the open ocean between the Mariana Islands and Taiwan, on a similar path to Soudelor early next week. Possibilities beyond that would take the potential cyclone anywhere from Taiwan to eastern China or the Korean Peninsula late next week or early the following week.

Another concern is that relatively low wind shear and warm ocean waters would allow this system to become a large typhoon or even a super typhoon when at peak intensity.

The second likely tropical system would develop farther east and track northward over the open Pacific Ocean. While initially the storm could impact parts of the Marshall Islands, the northward track would then take the storm over the open ocean with no impacts to land next week.