Monsoon rain has kicked up again across India and finally reached southeastern Pakistan, but a drier weather pattern will resume in August.
After lessening in earlier July, monsoonal rain and thunderstorms have returned in full swing throughout India and will continue to frequent the nation daily through the end of the month.
"The wet pattern may even spill into the first full week of August," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
"Monsoonal moisture plays a big role in crop farming across the country and the economy highly depends on it," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root. "While the rain is welcome, too much can cause crop damage and create flooding. On the other end, too little will induce drought which can devastate crops and drinking supplies."
There will definitely be incidents of excessive downpours triggering flash flooding through the start of August with the west coast and central India especially at risk. Central India is where Nicholls states tropical lows will be mostly aimed at.
The danger of frequent flooding downpours will also be high across Bangladesh and Myanmar.
"The potential exists for localized areas to pick up 250 mm (10 inches) of rain in a day or two," added AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards in regards to the heaviest downpours the tropical lows may unleash.
"New Delhi will receive some rain through the start of August, but the heaviest rain will remain to the south," continued Nicholls.
While the earlier monsoonal rain failed to reach southeastern Pakistan, Karachi finally experienced its first thunderstorm dropping measurable rain late Tuesday since rare rainfall fell in March. Additional thunderstorms are expected into early August.
Toward the end of the first full week in August, Nicholls expects the monsoon to quiet down across India and stay quiet, leading to August being drier than normal. The pulse of instability that is helping to reactive the monsoon will depart, resulting in less rain and thunderstorms.
"All monsoons have these breaks and active periods," stated Nicholls. "However, during most El Nino years [as what this year is], the drier breaks tend to be longer and lead to drier-than-normal conditions."
As the monsoonal rain and thunderstorms lessen, heat can built and put the region further at risk for drought.