The atmosphere will continue to produce thunderstorm complexes that travel quickly and over vast distances in parts of the Plains, Midwest and East through nearly the end of July.
Even though a push of dry air will temporarily turn off the thunderstorm machine in parts of the Midwest and East, the lull is not likely to last. The atmosphere is already reloading over the Plains.
People from the central and northern Plains to parts of the Midwest and East should be prepared for more rounds of storms, severe weather and the risk of flash flooding for the rest of the month.
A nearly stationary area of high pressure has taken up position over the South Central states. Since the high is so strong, most storms must go around the system and the heat it is producing.
Since the high will more or less hold its ground to the latter part of July, the thunderstorm complexes with an occasional long-tracking squall line will continue to occur on the northern edge of the high. However, the storm complexes will shift their track at times.
According to AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "As the shape and position of the high pressure area changes, it will affect the track of the thunderstorm complexes."
Some of the storm complexes will travel hundreds of miles and will produce incidents of damaging winds, frequent lightning and flash flooding.
One complex of storms is forecast to track from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes during the latter part of this week.
Instead of storms traveling southeastward from the northern Plains to the southern Appalachians, the complexes of storms will travel in a more west to east fashion for a time, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams stated.
"As heat and humidity return to the Northeast this weekend, so will the chance of thunderstorms," Abrams said.
The storms may end up being a more frequent visitor to New York City and Boston, as opposed to Nashville and Atlanta for the next week or so. Frequent storms are likely to continue in Minneapolis, Cincinnati and Chicago.
Pastelok is concerned about a significant thunderstorm complex hitting Chicago around July 19 or so, but timing the storms and their exact track out beyond a couple of days is challenging in such a fast-moving pattern.
"Even though the complexes will tend to move from west to east in the coming days, segments of the storms can still turn toward the south on occasion, just not as far into the South as has recently occurred," Pastelok said.
Later in the month, the storms may resume the northwest to southeast path, similar to what occurred around July 12-14.
This spring, the pattern produced areas of heavy rain and flooding centered on the Plains and Midwest. Some locations in Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri were bombarded with a foot of rain in less than a month's time.
This summer, however, the pattern has evolved to produce large complexes of storms that move along, rather than hang around. However, in addition to the severe weather, flooding episodes have continued and expanded to new territory.
While the wet weather has been shorter in duration, it has still been intense with several inches of rain falling.
The ongoing storm train will renew flooding and severe weather in some locations of the Plains and Midwest and bring both beneficial rain, the risk of flooding and severe weather to parts of the Northeast, where little has occurred thus far.