The Arabian Sea coastline from Oman to Pakistan remains on alert for potential impacts later this week if Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa makes landfall.
The warm waters of the Arabian Sea will allow Ashobaa to strengthen through midweek, potentially reaching minimal hurricane intensity.
The heaviest rain and wind associated with the storm will remain over the open waters of the Arabian Sea during this time. However, seas will turn increasingly rough for boaters and swimmers across the northern part of the sea.
"The circulation around the storm will also bring increased moisture to [the west coast of India] from Surat to Mumbai to Kochi, leading to rounds of showers and thunderstorms," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty. Some of the rain will be heavy and will unleash excessive downpours.
The cyclone will then face a battle with drier air as it moves northwestward toward the coast from northeastern Oman to southwestern Pakistan later this week. The result will determine if its flooding rain moves onshore.
"There is significant dry air over land and a lack of tropical moisture across the northern Arabian Sea," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
Nicholls explained that once Ashobaa nears the coast, the cyclone should tend to weaken as dry air wraps into its center.
If the dry air totally overwhelms Ashobaa, the demise of the cyclone would come before it reaches land. The coastline would then escape the danger of flooding rain and damaging winds. The threat of rough surf will gradually diminish as the cyclone dissipates.
If Ashobaa can overcome the drier air enough to remain an organized cyclone to the point of landfall, heavy rain would move onshore later this week. "This could pose a major flooding risk across the desert terrain," added Douty.
The danger of damaging winds, even in this scenario, should be on a more localized level since the drier air will still force the cyclone past its peak intensity.
The exact track of Ashobaa, in this scenario, will determine which coastal communities are at risk for the flooding rain later this week. However, all residents from northeastern Oman to southeastern Iran to southwestern Pakistan are urged to monitor the progress of Ashobaa and prepare for potential impacts.
"It is better to prepare now than to be caught unprepared," added AccuWeather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani.