Tropical Cyclone 01A formed on Sunday, local time, and will threaten areas from northwestern India into Oman with potentially damaging wind and flooding rainfall.
Currently, a moderate wind shear is preventing the storm from rapidly intensifying, despite being over very warm ocean water. This wind shear will lessen slightly through the beginning of the week, which will allow for gradual strengthening as the storm drifts to the north.
Despite the center of the storm being well out to sea through the beginning of the week, impacts will still be felt along the west coast of India. The circulations around the storm will bring increased moisture to areas from Surat to Mumbai and Kochi leading to rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some of this rain could be heavy along the southern coast.
In addition, higher-than-normal surf will create dangerous boating and swimming conditions to beachgoers.
During the second half of the week, the cyclone will near the northern coast of the Arabian Sea. There is still some question as to the eventual path of the storm, but areas from near Karachi, Pakistan to Muscat, Oman should monitor the situation for updates.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani warns that "If the tropical cyclone tracks into eastern Oman it could cause major flooding across the mountains desert terrain." Flooding will also threaten areas along the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan should the storm track farther to the east.
Climatologically, tropical cyclones moving into the northern Arabian Sea dissipate rather rapidly due to the abundant dry and and lack of rich tropical moisture. Once nearing the coast the cyclone should begin a weakening trend as dry air wraps into the system.
Sagliani adds "Despite the fact that the exact track of the storm is unclear, it is better to prepare now than to be caught unprepared." Residents are urged to continue monitoring this situation and begin preparing for potential impacts.