Storms and cool conditions will frequent part of interior Southern Asia this spring, but temperatures are likely to rebound to seasonable to above-average levels in much of China and Turkey as the storms diminish later in the season.
While the spring is fairly inactive for tropical activity in Asia waters, there are a couple of areas that bear watching.
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An active storm track will continue from Turkey to northern Pakistan and Nepal during March.
According to AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Forecaster Jason Nicholls, "Rounds of rain and snow will extend from Turkey and around the Caspian Sea to the Hindu Kush Mountains, the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau."
Some of the stronger storms moving through this swath will kick up dust farther south in parts of Syria and Iraq to Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
While the storm track will weaken and lift northward during April into May, allowing temperatures to recover to seasonable levels, a few rounds of unsettled weather will still occur in these areas with temperature setbacks.
Farther to the east, storm systems will move along a frontal boundary that frequently stalls across China's Yangtze River Valley.
"This area in south-central China will end up with frequent bouts of rain into April," Nicholls said.
Some of the systems affecting the Yangtze Valley will impact Japan to the North China Plain during March. However, the stormy pattern will diminish during April, so that by May, the region will trend drier and warmer than average.
A couple of early season chilly blasts will extend from northeastern China to the Korean Peninsula to northern Japan. Despite this, no prolonged cold weather is forecast this spring from the Koreas to Japan. Near to above-normal temperatures are likely during the second half of the spring. Rainfall will be close to average.
"In Northeast China (Manchuria), multiple storm systems will move through during much of the spring. However, these will only have limited moisture to work with," Nicholls said.
Average precipitation amounts will trend to drier than normal as the spring progresses in Manchuria, which will then result in a spring with below-average precipitation.
Cooler-than-average offshore waters with above-normal air temperatures will assist with drier-than-average conditions over much of Southeast Asia.
"As the waters warm a bit later in the spring, more seasonable rainfall may occur in parts of Vietnam during May," Nicholls said.
India will be well south of the storm track. As a result, much of the country will have a typically dry spring with temperatures near to above average.
Tropical activity is not common during the spring over much of the Indian Ocean.
"Cooler-than-average waters and an unfavorable weather pattern should inhibit tropical development in the Bay of Bengal. However, warmer-than-average waters could allow a tropical system to spin up over the Arabian Sea from the latter part of April through May," Nicholls said.
In the Western Pacific, tropical systems are less frequent in the spring, when compared to the summer. Additionally, waters are currently cooler than average from south of Japan to near Luzon island of the Philippines and are likely to remain so for much of the spring. These cool waters will tend to inhibit development near Asia this spring.
Warmer-than-average waters over the Central Pacific will likely continue through the spring.
"The warm water over the Central Pacific combined with the expected weather pattern should allow from two to four tropical systems to spin up," Nicholls said.
The cooler waters closer to Asia will allow these systems to weaken as they move westward toward the Philippines early in the season.
"As waters warm later in the spring, one or two tropical systems could reach the Philippines with heavy rain and flooding being the greatest risk," Nicholls said.